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Compiling comments that experts make about stocks while on public TV.

Recent Opinions

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Date Signal Company Expert Opinion Price
2017-10-20 N/A A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
Bruce Campbell (1)

Market. Usually, from about Nov 15 to the end of the year the market does well. From here to Nov 15, it is usually flat and then up into the year end, so maybe there won’t be any correction until early next year. Surprised energy is not doing better with oil prices of $51-$52. Stocks had a nice run when oil initially pushed through $50, but it hasn’t really followed through, even though it has tried a couple of times. Fears of a bubble in Canadian real property has kind of dissipated. In the banks, the quarter was up about 9%, dividend increases were still there, and we now have reasonable returns, so it’s a nice place to hide.


Price: $0.020
Subject: CANADIAN LARGE
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: _N/A
2017-10-20 N/A A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
Bruce Campbell (1)

Black Swan? By definition, an upcoming recession is probably not a Black Swan. Usually there is so much debt that you get out on a limb. Other than real estate, we don’t seem to have any thing else that feels like a bubble. We have an expensive market, but we don’t have an inverted yield curve or anything coming, except the pace of higher rates. If there is some danger of the Fed tightening too quickly and tip us over into a recession, that would be 2 years from now, so the earliest risk would be 2019.


Price: $0.020
Subject: CANADIAN LARGE
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: _N/A
2017-10-20 N/A A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
William Chin

Market.We are now starting to get economic data that suggests the consumer is not quite as robust as they once were. Today the August retail sales report came out, which is consumer spending. It fell .3% after a .4% gain in July, and excludes cars and auto parts, which are more volatile, so we are looking at core consumer spending, which actually fell .7%. In July it was up .2%. The economy is taking a sharp turn for the worst. The economy has been carried by the consumer and the housing market for a long time. You would want to have a moderate housing correction, and hopefully energy exports can pick up. Maybe crude oil prices are stabilizing which would help. Our exports have been falling for 3 months in a row, and in those 3 months, we lost 10% of our exports. That is due to a very strong Cdn$ due to the 2 rapid rate hikes. Taking back the emergency rate cuts is totally justifiable, but doing that in a hurry will have a larger than expected impact. Element of surprise has always been the strongest tool in the Central Banks toolbox. He can’t see any reason for them to raise rates further.


Price: $0.020
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & MACRO STRATEGY
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: _N/A
2017-10-20 PARTIAL SELL Air Canada
AC-T
William Chin

Has done very well, but is overbought on the chart. If you own, sell half or a 3rd, which will improve your average cost and you will be much better protected.


Price: $26.200
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & MACRO STRATEGY
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: No
2017-10-20 PAST TOP PICK AGT Food & Ingredients
AGT-T
William Chin

(A Top Pick Sept 16/16. Down 41%.) Had supply disruptions, and were having a tough time stocking up shelves to meet demand. Management kept saying things would improve, but he didn’t see it so he sold. Looks like there is more room to go on the downside. Dividend yield of 2.9%.


Price: $20.720
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & MACRO STRATEGY
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: No
2017-10-20 PAST TOP PICK Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp
AQN-T
Bruce Campbell (1)

(A Top Pick Oct 28/16. Up 24%.) In a general sense, this is like some of these growth utilities; making acquisitions in the US, and using their paper. That is what you want. If you are going to buy something for yield, you can’t just have stagnating earnings growth, you need them to have the ability to raise the dividend so that they can lean into higher rates, and the stock will continue to grow. He is hopeful that there will be another accretive acquisition coming soon.


Price: $14.000
Subject: CANADIAN LARGE
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Yes
2017-10-20 COMMENT Aecon Group Inc
ARE-T
William Chin

Chart shows a series of higher lows, but no higher highs. Like all construction stocks, this is very volatile. 2 words of advice. 1.) Don’t put too much of your portfolio into a stock like this. 2.) If there is good news and the stock picks up, remember to take your profits. Dividend yield of 3%.


Price: $16.340
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & MACRO STRATEGY
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Unknown
2017-10-20 COMMENT BlackBerry
BB-T
Bruce Campbell (1)

Sell or Hold? They’ve changed from hardware to software. The asset values he sees from the street are $16-$17, and the consensus might be $15, so you are getting pretty close. If he owned it with $10 costs, he would be tempted to take half off the table. It is getting close to full value. John Chen does a good job.


Price: $14.020
Subject: CANADIAN LARGE
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: No
2017-10-20 TOP PICK BB&T Corp.
BBT-N
Bruce Campbell (1)

This is most like a TD Bank (TD-T) in that it is an east coast regional from Florida up through New England. Very cheap relative to its US peers. It would look a little expensive on Canadian standards, trading at 13X earnings instead of 11X earnings, and a 2.8% yield instead of 4%, but would be a bigger beneficiary on higher rates. Very retail. If we get the Fed going again in December, and 1 or 2 times next year, they’ll have decent earnings growth, and there are still lots of targets of smaller regional banks for them to buy. (Analysts’ price target is $49.)


Price: $47.500
Subject: CANADIAN LARGE
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Yes
2017-10-20 COMMENT Bank of Montreal
BMO-T
William Chin

Chart shows a Bull/Flat formation. The top of the flat is represented by disbelievers, people who don’t want the stock and are taking advantage of rallies and selling their position. The key on this is that it has broken out. The buyers are actually winning. That means it will likely go higher. There is a decent chance that this can reach the recent high and go a little higher. There is a nice little bull/flag formation.


Price: $98.760
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & MACRO STRATEGY
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Unknown
2017-10-20 COMMENT Bonterra Energy Corp
BNE-T
Bruce Campbell (1)

This hasn’t acted well. It’s like a lot of energy stocks, but this is still down 50% for the year. Got caught with a little “worse than average” balance sheet, which has been a kiss of death in the stock market. With the combination of a really good balance sheet, very low costs and drilling prospects, you are still down, but not very much. It will take a while. It’s one of those companies that needs $60 oil to be better. If you think that is not going to happen, then he would switch to something else where you would be better protected.


Price: $13.950
Subject: CANADIAN LARGE
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Unknown
2017-10-20 COMMENT CAE Inc
CAE-T
William Chin

Chart shows a nice series of higher highs and higher lows from the beginning of 2016. They also have some new contracts coming. Defence companies can continue to do quite well moving forward. Keep an eye on it and make sure it continues having a higher highs and higher lows. 1.7% dividend yield.


Price: $21.970
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & MACRO STRATEGY
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Unknown
2017-10-20 SELL CCL Industries (B)
CCL.B-T
William Chin

Specializes in labels and have been acquiring mom-and-pop operators. A very successful business model of acquisitions. Because it was getting a little pricey, he recently sold his holdings. If you own, take your profit and run.


Price: $63.580
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & MACRO STRATEGY
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: No
2017-10-20 BUY Celgene Corp
CELG-Q
William Chin

This is revisiting old highs, which is a very bullish sign. In this case, it actually broke above its old highs. The current correction seems very healthy as long as it continues making higher lows. Add to your position, but keep a Stop at around $110.


Price: $121.330
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & MACRO STRATEGY
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Unknown
2017-10-20 COMMENT Chorus Aviation Inc
CHR-T
William Chin

Just added to his position. He loves it and thinks it is going higher. The fundamental analyst from his shop indicates there is still a lot of value to be unlocked. Only trading at 9X forward earnings.


Price: $8.770
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & MACRO STRATEGY
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Yes
2017-10-20 WATCH Corus Entertainment (B)
CJR.B-T
Bruce Campbell (1)

Pays a 9% dividend yield. There is probably no short-term danger of it being cut. It has been at a relatively high yield for quite a while. It is a tough environment for them with a tough set of assets. You can hold it for the dividend, but he would be a little nervous doing that indefinitely. If you do, watch it every quarter to make sure there is no further deterioration.


Price: $12.280
Subject: CANADIAN LARGE
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Unknown
2017-10-20 COMMENT Cargojet Inc
CJT-T
William Chin

He recently just added to his holdings. It has a very good business model. Chart shows a bull/flag formation with nonbelievers selling, but the stock continuing to go higher. It looks very good. The company has a lot of runway left.


Price: $51.700
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & MACRO STRATEGY
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Yes
2017-10-20 COMMENT Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce
CM-T
William Chin

This has done reasonably well. As we know, banks are a protected species in Canada. Chart is showing a series of higher lows and higher highs, and feels this could go a little higher. The chart looks pretty good.


Price: $112.580
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & MACRO STRATEGY
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Unknown
2017-10-20 PAST TOP PICK Canadian National R.R.
CNR-T
Bruce Campbell (1)

(A Top Pick Oct 28/16. Up 25%.) Doesn’t think the 25% will get repeated. Well-managed and a good way to get industrial and general economic exposure. Also, if you own pipelines, rails are a good hedge.


Price: $102.980
Subject: CANADIAN LARGE
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Yes
2017-10-20 HOLD Capital Power
CPX-T
Bruce Campbell (1)

Northland Power (NPI-T) or Capital Power (CPX-T)? This one has a little more non-sustainable stuff in it. As the outlook for that has improved, it has done better lately. He would classify both as in the Hold category, and a little bit lower on the pecking order. (Owns some of the preferreds.)


Price: $25.410
Subject: CANADIAN LARGE
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Yes
2017-10-20 COMMENT Chartwell Seniors Housing
CSH.UN-T
William Chin

One of those defensive stocks, and of course the secular trend works; aging demographics, baby growers retiring. Chart shows the stock is in an up channel. Take your profits at the top of the channel and maybe buy when it is at the bottom of the channel. You are in a very good space on this one.


Price: $15.210
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & MACRO STRATEGY
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Unknown
2017-10-20 COMMENT DHX Media
DHX.B-T
Bruce Campbell (1)

Has put itself up for sale. With Canadian content there are only a few selective buyers. That really restricts it. On the other hand, they would have to break it up which becomes complicated. He’s wondering if 1 or 2 Canadian buyers have kicked the tires, maybe there is a story out there that nothing is going to happen. He doesn’t hear anything, and maybe the silence is deafening.


Price: $4.520
Subject: CANADIAN LARGE
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: No
2017-10-20 TOP PICK Walt Disney
DIS-N
Bruce Campbell (1)

Peaked at $116 in March or April. The worries had been on ESPN, cord cutting, etc. That has mostly happened, and they are acting to take measures to stop the bleeding and do different vehicles of distributing. ESPN was 110 million subscribers a year ago, and now it is like 89 million. “Live sports” is one of the last bastions of things that will stay. There is another Star Wars movie coming, and usually the stock does well. Also they get the attendant merchandise sales and all that. All it really has to do is go back to where it was, and you would have a 16% return. The entry point is attractive. Dividend yield of 1.6%. (Analysts’ price target is $113.50.)


Price: $99.400
Subject: CANADIAN LARGE
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Yes
2017-10-20 COMMENT Wisdom Tree Japan Hedged Equity
DXJ-N
William Chin

A hedge is always good. It means you are not taking currency risks. However, this is traded in US$. As a Canadian investor you still have US$ exposure. The hedge is between the US$ and the Japanese yen, not against the Cdn$. Chart shows it has had a pretty good run up, but there is resistance at around $60. The Japanese economy is not exactly firing on all cylinders. Japan is still suffering from deflation and very sluggish growth because of Asian demographics among other things. If you have some profits on this, make sure you take some.


Price: $56.740
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & MACRO STRATEGY
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Unknown
2017-10-20 COMMENT Encana Corp
ECA-T
Bruce Campbell (1)

The market tries to like it, and then gets overwhelmed by commodity prices. Although we are enjoying nice weather, that is not good for natural gas prices, so it’s pulled back again in the short term, and the group has pulled back pretty substantially in the past couple of weeks, so the 2-week outlook doesn’t look so great, even though the storage situation is not too bad. Being big and liquid, this company is viewed as one of the 2 “go to” gas names for Americans. He would prefer something with a bit better growth if you are going to go to gas, such as Paramount (POU-T).


Price: $14.340
Subject: CANADIAN LARGE
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: No
2017-10-20 BUY Enbridge
ENB-T
Bruce Campbell (1)

He likes this. Feels it is still working through Spectra which they acquired in the US. A lot of stock was exchanged. Expects there has been pressure of US Spectra holders getting Enbridge stock and trying to get out of it, so it’s been trending sideways for a few months. Management said they have a 5-7 year plan of increasing earnings 8%-10%, but increasing dividends 8%-10% per year. If they are able to, this looks like one of the best yield/growth combinations out there, with safety. This is a great entry point.


Price: $49.620
Subject: CANADIAN LARGE
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Yes
2017-10-20 SELL ON STRENGTH Enbridge Income Fund Holdings
ENF-T
William Chin

Hold or Sell?He doesn’t follow this closely, but the chart shows that $25 is a very important support. It also shows a bit of a rounded top. Use any small rally to sell your position. 6.6% dividend yield.


Price: $30.200
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & MACRO STRATEGY
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Unknown
2017-10-20 COMMENT Fairfax Financial
FFH-T
Bruce Campbell (1)

Sell or Hold? This is very difficult to analyse. It’s like a black box and he doesn’t know what the earnings are going to be. There is the insurance side, but he doesn’t know exactly what the investments are all the time. For the first 7-8 years after the crash, because Prem Watsa owned all these Puts, it did really well in the crash, and he was able to grow BV on the insurance side and made gains on the portfolio, but you never knew where they where. Prem finally had a loss on the Puts but was overwhelmed by gains on the other stuff. He owns a lot of their bonds and preferreds. Because of their uncertainty, they always trade at a discount, so the yields are higher.


Price: $653.510
Subject: CANADIAN LARGE
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Yes
2017-10-20 SELL General Electric
GE-N
William Chin

The stock went down on the open, but then rallied back. His rule is that if values go down and then can rally back, it usually means Shorts are covering. The question going forward then is, did we close at a higher price than yesterday or is the closing price high enough to indicate new buyers coming in. He wanted this to close above $24, but it didn’t, so it looks like the downward trend will continue.


Price: $23.830
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & MACRO STRATEGY
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Unknown
2017-10-20 TOP PICK CGI Group (A)
GIB.A-T
William Chin

A big IT consulting firm. Has very good contracts. Management is doing very well. The balance sheet is very strong. The chart shows it is steadily going higher. As technology gets more sophisticated, companies are finding it difficult to keep abreast of the changes, so there is more and more outsourcing taking place. (Analysts’ price target is $74.)


Price: $66.860
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & MACRO STRATEGY
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Yes
2017-10-20 COMMENT General Mills
GIS-N
William Chin

This has done reasonably well. As we know, banks are a protected species in Canada. Chart is showing a series of higher lows and higher highs, and feels this could go a little higher. The chart looks pretty good.


Price: $52.010
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & MACRO STRATEGY
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Unknown
2017-10-20 PAST TOP PICK Imvescor Restaurant Group
IRG-T
William Chin

(A Top Pick Sept 16/16. Up 20%.) Runs a chain of different restaurants. Hired a new CEO about a year ago, who changed the decor of the restaurants and redid the menu. Has just added more to his holdings. It has a lot of runway.


Price: $3.600
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & MACRO STRATEGY
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Yes
2017-10-20 COMMENT Kinder Morgan Canada
KML-T
Bruce Campbell (1)

Because it looked kind of dicey to get approval, and its very strange timing of the IPO, he didn’t participate. They priced it down, but not low enough. To help with a financing, they came out with a very attractive preferred, which he bought.


Price: $16.960
Subject: CANADIAN LARGE
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Yes
2017-10-20 PAST TOP PICK Manulife Financial
MFC-T
Bruce Campbell (1)

(A Top Pick Oct 28/16. Up 39%.) Had a really good pop, but it isn’t going to repeat that. He still it likes it. It has Asia growth and is a beneficiary of higher rates, which is primarily why it has gone up. Earnings are growing. Expects they will raise the dividend a little in Jan or Feb. A new management team came in recently which impressed the street in their initial meeting.


Price: $26.020
Subject: CANADIAN LARGE
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Yes
2017-10-20 HOLD Northland Power Inc
NPI-T
Bruce Campbell (1)

Northland Power (NPI-T) or Capital Power (CPX-T)? This one would be viewed as quite a bit purer as there is a lot of wind in there. Moved up a fair bit in 2016 when they put themselves up for sale, and then went sideways when nothing happened. Now you have an expensive stock treading water to catch up with its own fundamentals. He would classify both as in the Hold category, and a little bit lower on the pecking order.


Price: $24.040
Subject: CANADIAN LARGE
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Unknown
2017-10-20 DON'T BUY Precision Drilling
PD-T
Bruce Campbell (1)

Doesn’t own any thing in the service side, and is really, really light on energy. He can’t imagine there is much more downside to this, but the rig side in drilling has been tougher. There are no further rigs being added to the drillers, and a lot of them are drilling as much is they were, so prices do have an impact. He would stay away for now.


Price: $3.090
Subject: CANADIAN LARGE
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: No
2017-10-20 HOLD Parkland Fuel Corp
PKI-T
Bruce Campbell (1)

Doesn’t know why it’s down, but looks like a pretty good entry point. Made an acquisition earlier in the year, buying assets from Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD.B-T). It might be a misunderstanding of being affected by lower energy prices, which they are not. It is down to an attractive level. He owns the bonds.


Price: $23.650
Subject: CANADIAN LARGE
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Yes
2017-10-20 COMMENT Restaurent Brands International
QSR-T
William Chin

Chart is looking good. You have your Tim Hortons and Burger Kings. Chart shows it is in a nice Up channel. If you want to add to your holdings, wait for the bottom of the channel. If you want to take some profits or lighten up, wait for the top of the channel.


Price: $85.070
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & MACRO STRATEGY
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Unknown
2017-10-20 COMMENT Sherritt International Corp.
S-T
Bruce Campbell (1)

Used to own many years ago. It’s doing better lately, because of nickel prices. In battery technology, there is some nickel and cobalt. They also have an oil/gas side in Cuba. Prospects are better. To really super prosper and be back to a $3 stock again, you probably need $7 nickel, and we are quite some ways from that. The trend is in the right direction. The bonds got down to $.60 on the dollar, yielding 20%. They are now back to about $.78 and yields are still 12%-13%. It is now positive.


Price: $1.460
Subject: CANADIAN LARGE
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: No
2017-10-20 COMMENT Shopify Inc.
SHOP-T
Bruce Campbell (1)

Vulnerable to the Shorts, because the valuation is incredibly expensive. They are still not making any money. Believes the Bulls have $.20 in earnings for 2018, back-end loaded. That would mean it is trading at 600X earnings, and something like 30X EBITDA. Still too expensive and vulnerable. You could maybe trade it, but if it ever misses it would be $80 before you could shake a stick at it.


Price: $129.030
Subject: CANADIAN LARGE
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: No
2017-10-20 SELL ON STRENGTH Stantec Inc
STN-T
William Chin

This has done well, but hasn’t done anything for a while. There are willing sellers on top and willing buyers at the bottom. He would use the rally to take profits.


Price: $36.070
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & MACRO STRATEGY
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Unknown
2017-10-20 HOLD Transcontinental Inc. (A)
TCL.A-T
Bruce Campbell (1)

For income and growth? An odd one in the sense that it gives you paper, printing, advertising, flyers and everything else. They’ve done an excellent job at doing some dispositions, and acquiring digitally to diversify. Statistically cheap with a good dividend. It has now come to a level, unless they do something further on the acquisition side, where it is fairly fully valued. It would be a decent hold and relatively safe in a pullback, as it is not highly valued nor a big grower. He wouldn’t be wild about this.


Price: $26.490
Subject: CANADIAN LARGE
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Unknown
2017-10-20 TOP PICK Transcontinental Inc. (A)
TCL.A-T
William Chin

He likes both the fundamental and technical aspects. Chart shows staircase like blocks, so the company is definitely doing well. This is in printing which seems like a bad space, but this is one that he calls “the last man standing”. It is trading at a big discount to the market. It does printing for the Globe and Mail, Toronto Star, San Francisco Chronicle, and flyers for Sobey’s, Metro, Shoppers Drug Mart, etc. Another interesting part is that about 15%, and growing, is their revenue which comes from packaging. Strong balance sheet and good management. Dividend yield of 3%. (Analysts’ price target is $26.75.)


Price: $26.490
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & MACRO STRATEGY
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Yes
2017-10-20 COMMENT Teck Resources Ltd. (B)
TECK.B-T
William Chin

Chart shows a very nice recovery in 2016, but now it is showing lower highs and lower lows. Going forward, he expects we’ll have periods of weakness going back to about $10 levels. You can’t talk commodities without talking about China. China is just going through a big party Congress. Historically, they dress up before the Congress, but after that they might go back to deleveraging. China is very highly leveraged. Doesn’t expect any hard landing, but just slower growth. Expects there may be some weakness at hand, but is looking at support of around $20.


Price: $28.680
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & MACRO STRATEGY
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Unknown
2017-10-20 TOP PICK TransCanada Corp
TRP-T
Bruce Campbell (1)

On the growth/pipelines/utilities/telecom group, you are looking for guys that can grow earnings so that they can grow dividends. This company fits. There was a big US acquisition in 2016, which really helped. Although Energy East is now defunct, you get the dividend yield of 4%, along with the demonstrative plan of growth including the dividend over the next 5-7 years. A great place to hide, particularly in this environment where everything looks and feels a bit expensive. (Analysts’ price target is $72.)


Price: $61.870
Subject: CANADIAN LARGE
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Yes
2017-10-20 SELL ON STRENGTH Uni-Select Inc
UNS-T
William Chin

Chart shows it had a nice run up from 2015 to the end of 2016, but is now leveling off. The chart right now is neutral and is in a bit of a trading range here. There is also some volatility. If it rallies, he would take some off the table. Dividend yield of 1.3%.


Price: $28.790
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & MACRO STRATEGY
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Unknown
2017-10-20 BUY on WEAKNESS Waste Connections
WCN-T
Bruce Campbell (1)

Has been a pretty hot stock lately. Expensively priced. Growth by acquisition, and a yield, but not a really high one. You take that combination, but unless you can really buy it well, or you already hold it, he would look for a cheaper entry point. He would look in the low $80s before he would be an interested buyer.


Price: $89.110
Subject: CANADIAN LARGE
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: No
2017-10-20 PAST TOP PICK Sleep Country Canada Holdings
ZZZ-T
William Chin

(A Top Pick Sept 16/16. Up 27%.) Just added to his holdings recently. They had very good execution. Salespeople are very helpful and knowledgeable, unlike the Bay or other big department stores. They’ve also branched out into accessories such as pillowcases, duvets and headboards. Improving about 15 to 20 stores a year. Strong balance sheet and good execution.


Price: $38.740
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & MACRO STRATEGY
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Yes
2017-10-20 TOP PICK Sleep Country Canada Holdings
ZZZ-T
William Chin

This is executing very well. Very strong balance sheet and a good cash position. Management is keeping an eye on the ball, renovating the stores. Staff are well-trained. (Analysts’ price target is $44.)


Price: $38.740
Subject: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & MACRO STRATEGY
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Yes
2017-10-19 N/A A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
Peter Hodson

Market.  The average investor has a 30 year time frame.  We have not had a correction in a very long time but if you are worried about it and you have a long timeframe, you don’t have to worry about it.


Price: $0.020
Subject: CANADIAN SMALL & MIDCAPS
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: _N/A
2017-10-19 N/A A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
Andy Nasr

Central Banks.They are forward-looking, so monetary policy to some extent is forward-looking, considering that a lot of Central Banks in the US have hiked rates 3 times since Trump won the presidency. In Canada, the Bank of Canada has hiked rates twice, so we are forward-looking, because inflation isn’t quite at the target a lot of these Central Banks are targeting, which is 2% or below. They think the slack is eventually going to get absorbed and eventually move back up to 2%. Having fixed income in a portfolio is important, because it will act as a ballast and give you an opportunity to redeploy capital when an opportunity presents itself. As long as we have decent credit growth and decent economic growth, it bodes well for owning equities, corporate profits and earnings.


Price: $0.020
Subject: REITS, GLOBAL & MACRO STRATEGY
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: _N/A
2017-10-19 COMMENT A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
Andy Nasr

American Mortgage REITs?Typically very highly leveraged, which is one of the reasons he doesn’t own them. The perverse part about what is happening to rates is that the short end has gone up and the long end actually hasn’t. Where you want to start to get worried is when rates move up too quickly, which puts more of a dent in home ownership in the US.


Price: $0.020
Subject: REITS, GLOBAL & MACRO STRATEGY
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: No
2017-10-19 TOP PICK Absolute Software Corp.
ABT-T
Peter Hodson

With the Equifax breach, everyone is back on the band wagon.  They have a good solution for security.  They have a lot of cash and no debt.  Active investors have started to pick away.  They own a third and management owns a third.  It will get harder and harder to buy the stock.  He thinks it will eventually get taken over.  (Analysts’ target: $8.50).


Price: $8.450
Subject: CANADIAN SMALL & MIDCAPS
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: No
2017-10-19 DON'T BUY AGT Food & Ingredients
AGT-T
Peter Hodson

It has been getting hit hard.  They were going to cut back on international sales.  It has been on a big downhill slide ever since. 


Price: $20.870
Subject: CANADIAN SMALL & MIDCAPS
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: Unknown
2017-10-19 TOP PICK Altagas Ltd
ALA-T
Andy Nasr

This provides energy infrastructure. They own power generation assets. In the process of completing a US large acquisition, this is supposed to close in the 1st half of 2018. That really changes the dynamic of the business. To fund this acquisition, they have to sell some assets, which include some California power generation assets which they bought, which were underpinned by power purchase agreements, where the power price they are getting is about half of what the current merchant price is, so those have to get refinanced and re-contracted. Dividend yield of 7.4%. (Analysts’ price target is $33.)


Price: $29.540
Subject: REITS, GLOBAL & MACRO STRATEGY
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Yes
2017-10-19 TOP PICK Albemarle Corp
ALB-N
Andy Nasr

The largest producer of lithium. When we talk about electrification, electric vehicles, more tablets, smart phones, etc. lithium batteries are going to be in relatively high demand. Demand growth is forecast to be 10% a year for the next decade, and that is even using some relatively conservative assumptions about electric vehicle penetration. Given that this is the largest producer and a very low-cost producer, they should be able to bank very significant cash flow over the course of the next 5-10 years, but governments can very significantly influence adoption. Dividend yield of 0.9%. (Analysts’ price target is $137.)


Price: $139.490
Subject: REITS, GLOBAL & MACRO STRATEGY
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Yes
2017-10-19 COMMENT Amazon.com
AMZN-Q
Andy Nasr

Hold or Sell?If you are holding it, you are buying it. There is no question there is a tremendous amount of growth ahead. It’s very hard to justify valuation. While he has confidence that e-commerce penetration is going to increase very gradually from 9%-10% in the US, when you look at their valuation it is difficult to justify how much earnings are going to have to grow for the valuation to come down to a market multiple. Trades at about 110X next year’s earnings. If you take that market multiple and bring it down to a multiple of about 20, that implies earnings are going to have to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 48% over 10 years. Very few companies have been able to do that.


Price: $986.610
Subject: REITS, GLOBAL & MACRO STRATEGY
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: No
2017-10-19 PAST TOP PICK Boardwalk REIT
BEI.UN-T
Andy Nasr

(A Top Pick Sept 20/16. Down 15%.) Continues to like this because it is a relatively defensive asset class, lower income Housing. Western Canada has been particularly challenged given the downturn in energy. The market has been a little overreacting to the downturn. The benefit is that it has a relatively short lease term. Trades at a significant discount to NAV. Continue to Hold if you own. Dividend yield of 5.6%.


Price: $40.150
Subject: REITS, GLOBAL & MACRO STRATEGY
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Yes
2017-10-19 COMMENT Canadian Apartment Properties
CAR.UN-T
Andy Nasr

Owns apartments in Canada, with significant exposure to Eastern Canada and a modest exposure to continental Europe. He owns this and continues to like it. It is very well-capitalized and well-run. Spent over $1 billion in investing in their own properties, enabling them to affect above guideline increases in Ontario. They will be able to benefit from the Ontario changes in rent regulations. 3.7% dividend yield.


Price: $34.680
Subject: REITS, GLOBAL & MACRO STRATEGY
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Yes
2017-10-19 PAST TOP PICK Cigna Corp.
CI-N
Andy Nasr

(A Top Pick Sept 20/16. Up 43%.) He continues to like the US healthcare sector. In the US, if over 65 years of age, you spend 3X as much on healthcare as under the age of 65. This company doesn’t have much exposure to the Affordable Care Act and is well positioned to benefit from those trends.


Price: $188.220
Subject: REITS, GLOBAL & MACRO STRATEGY
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Yes
2017-10-19 TOP PICK Celestica Inc
CLS-T
Peter Hodson

$300 million in cash and less than 9 times earnings.  They just can’t get any love.  It had a bit better execution in terms of earnings and they could get recognized.  They buy back stocks.  Leverage on their operations is quite high and it has not performed yet.  (Analysts’ target: $14.87).


Price: $15.150
Subject: CANADIAN SMALL & MIDCAPS
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: No
2017-10-19 DON'T BUY CRH Medical Corp.
CRH-T
Peter Hodson

It has not done anything at all for him and is on a short leash.  It is drifting back now.  He would be concerned about tax loss selling soon.  There is value there but don’t start a position.


Price: $2.940
Subject: CANADIAN SMALL & MIDCAPS
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: Yes
2017-10-19 COMMENT Chartwell Seniors Housing
CSH.UN-T
Andy Nasr

Key factors you focus on when assessing this kind of company?He tries to look at management, assets, P/R ratio and liabilities. When evaluating any REIT, the most important thing is going to be demand and supply. It really affects the ability of management teams to increase occupancy and increase rents. For this one, seniors housing is very operationally intensive, and they benefit from being one of the largest players in Canada. Having national presence gives them the opportunity to purchase things a little cheaper, manage properties more effectively and to increase occupancy in case of a decline. He likes this company. There are very favourable demographic tailwinds that will benefit them going forward.


Price: $15.160
Subject: REITS, GLOBAL & MACRO STRATEGY
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Yes
2017-10-19 WATCH Medical Facilities Corp.
DR-T
Peter Hodson

He is looking into it right now.  It is for income as there is not much growth.  He is cautious on US health care business because of the Medicaid situation.  It is not a dividend in jeopardy but he is cautious because of the sector.  The value proposition on this one is attractive at present.  It is a steady business.  It is for income and not for growth.


Price: $14.280
Subject: CANADIAN SMALL & MIDCAPS
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: Unknown
2017-10-19 BUY Enbridge
ENB-T
Andy Nasr

Was considering this as a Top Pick for tonight’s program. It provides energy infrastructure and accounts for a significant portion of the oil prices between Canada and the US. They have a $25+ billion backlog that they should be able to execute. Doesn’t think there is risk to energy infrastructure companies.


Price: $50.360
Subject: REITS, GLOBAL & MACRO STRATEGY
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Yes
2017-10-19 COMMENT Facebook
FB-Q
Andy Nasr

He likes this because it is involved in a couple of oligopolies, and in some cases duopolies. With all the accounts it has, there are increased users. What is most interesting is its dominance in online advertising. They are in a duopoly with Alphabet (GOOGL-Q), and control about 75% of online advertising. A really good business. If the valuation pulled back and got a little more compelling, he would consider adding to it.


Price: $174.560
Subject: REITS, GLOBAL & MACRO STRATEGY
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Yes
2017-10-19 COMMENT General Motors Corporation
GM-N
Andy Nasr

Has had a great run. His concern with the US automotive sector is that you are going to approach peak sales. He worries that ultimately you are going to see a lot of transition with respect to the OEMs, especially if you consider that other markets like China and some in continental Europe are trying to phase out combustible engine vehicles. China wants to completely phase them out by 2025. Also, NAFTA renegotiations are not good for this company.


Price: $45.350
Subject: REITS, GLOBAL & MACRO STRATEGY
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: No
2017-10-19 COMMENT Granite REIT
GRT.UN-T
Andy Nasr

There was a strategic review by management for potentially selling the company, but nothing came of that. There was some turnover with the CEO. The big issue is when it initially came to the market, it had very significant exposure to Magna (MG-T), which was their largest tenant. However, it had a pristine balance sheet. When you think of the Debt to Growth Book Value, it had approximately 25%, and the theory was that if they increased the leverage and took that Debt to Growth Book Value to 40%, they would have $1 billion to play with, diversify tenant exposure, make acquisitions. However they haven’t done any of that. That is unfortunate, because real estate prices have gone up significantly. It pays a decent dividend of 5%. His concern is that you really do need the leadership in there.


Price: $50.560
Subject: REITS, GLOBAL & MACRO STRATEGY
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Unknown
2017-10-19 PAST TOP PICK goeasy
GSY-T
Peter Hodson

(A Past Top Pick Jan 18/17, Up 16%)  The stock is very, very cheap.  It is trading at 9 times earnings.  Their growth rate is beyond that and they offer a good dividend.  It does not get the attention it deserves.  He likes it on valuation.


Price: $30.440
Subject: CANADIAN SMALL & MIDCAPS
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: No
2017-10-19 PAST TOP PICK High Arctic Energy Services Inc
HWO-T
Peter Hodson

(A Past Top Pick Jan 18/17, Down 24%)  They have a big drill program in New Guinea.  They look very good from a financial point of view.  You can’t fight the tape in the energy sector.  They have no debt.


Price: $4.110
Subject: CANADIAN SMALL & MIDCAPS
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: No
2017-10-19 HOLD K-Bro Linen Inc
KBL-T
Peter Hodson

This is a boring stock.  They wash linins for hospitals and industrial.  They have long term contracts and definitely are a safety company.  It will not get killed to badly with interest rates. 


Price: $38.550
Subject: CANADIAN SMALL & MIDCAPS
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: Unknown
2017-10-19 COMMENT Coca-Cola Company
KO-N
Andy Nasr

He would love to buy this if it got a lot cheaper. Has a great franchise. The problem with most consumer staples companies is that they are relatively expensive. The recent run-up is largely a function of the decline we have seen in the US$ versus other currencies. The company is structuring challenged in that you are going to see low single digit volume growth. They have tried to refranchise a lot of their bottlers, and are going through some transitional issues. Too expensive and too low a growth.


Price: $46.590
Subject: REITS, GLOBAL & MACRO STRATEGY
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: No
2017-10-19 BUY Crius Energy Trust
KWH.UN-T
Peter Hodson

He likes it and it is a great income generator.  It went down 10% on a downgrade in terms of customer acquisitions.  The distribution is nice.  They increased the dividend recently and have done so on a regular basis.  Investors are nervous on this company.


Price: $8.880
Subject: CANADIAN SMALL & MIDCAPS
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: Unknown
2017-10-19 TOP PICK Liberty Expedia Holdings
LEXEA-Q
Andy Nasr

A $3 billion company that owns a significant stake in Expedia (EXPE-Q) and Bodybuilding.com. The vast majority of the NAV is its ownership stake in Expedia. Trades at about a 25%-30% discount to the value of its Expedia holdings. It owns some of the common stock and all of the B voting shares. They’ve given the B voting shares and proxies to Mr. Diller, chairman of Expedia. In the event Mr. Diller dies or leaves the company, they get the voting shares back, at which point that NAV could get crystallized with a very significant uplift. He really likes Expedia and Priceline, as only about 35% of bookings are still done online, so there is going to be a tremendous amount of growth. (Analysts’ price target is $59.82.)


Price: $56.510
Subject: REITS, GLOBAL & MACRO STRATEGY
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Yes
2017-10-19 COMMENT Lloyds TSB Group PLC
LYG-N
Andy Nasr

Hold this or buy a US bank instead?Had owned this, but owns US banks now. Because of BREXIT, there is no question that there is a certain amount of uncertainty. Thinks the EU is going to be very reluctant to allow the UK to get away with some favourable trade terms, as there may be an Italian political party that wants to separate also.


Price: $3.590
Subject: REITS, GLOBAL & MACRO STRATEGY
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: No
2017-10-19 COMMENT Metlife
MET-N
Andy Nasr

Versus American banks?He likes US banks versus insurance companies. Banks are in a much better position to deliver earnings growth, versus some of the insurers. Insurers, both in Canada and US, do a little better when interest rates go up. Their liabilities go down and they also get a better return on assets. There is better risk/reward on the banks.


Price: $52.990
Subject: REITS, GLOBAL & MACRO STRATEGY
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: No
2017-10-19 BUY New Flyer Industries Inc.
NFI-T
Peter Hodson

They came out with a production update a couple of days ago and their backlog continues to grow.  The stock is looking quite good.  He likes it.  You don’t have to worry about it in the short term but watch the back log to roll over.


Price: $53.240
Subject: CANADIAN SMALL & MIDCAPS
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: Unknown
2017-10-19 PAST TOP PICK Nestles
NSRGY-OTC
Andy Nasr

(A Top Pick Sept 20/16. Up 11%.) Continues to like this. They generate a pretty decent cash flow, 3%-4% cash flow yield. The balance sheet is relatively strong, however it does continue to own a stake in L’Oreal. If they were to sell that stake, it unlocks a lot of capital which they can use for share buybacks. In the interim, management is focused on slightly improving margins and rationalizing their product line to focus on pet care, water and nutritional products. Derives a significant portion of sales from emerging markets.


Price: $0.001
Subject: REITS, GLOBAL & MACRO STRATEGY
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Yes
2017-10-19 DON'T BUY Precision Drilling
PD-T
Peter Hodson

High debt, almost awash and the sector is in decline.  They are big enough to muddle through this but he does not want to get involved. 


Price: $3.110
Subject: CANADIAN SMALL & MIDCAPS
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: No
2017-10-19 TOP PICK Photon Control
PHO-X
Peter Hodson

All the semi conductor companies in the US are going crazy.  This is the only Canadian player.  Earnings are 100% next year and 30 times earning PE.  It broke out to a new high a few days ago.  It is doing very well and the sector is very hot.  It is not as well known as it should be.  (Analysts’ target: $2.00).


Price: $1.710
Subject: CANADIAN SMALL & MIDCAPS
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: No
2017-10-19 HOLD Parkland Fuel Corp
PKI-T
Peter Hodson

It has been quite weak.  There has been sector rotation and concern about refinery margins.  They have done nothing wrong.  They made a good acquisition. 


Price: $24.360
Subject: CANADIAN SMALL & MIDCAPS
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: Unknown
2017-10-19 COMMENT Questor Technology
QST-X
Peter Hodson

We are seeing it start to turn up.  It is still pretty small but the trend is there and the orders are there.


Price: $1.600
Subject: CANADIAN SMALL & MIDCAPS
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: Unknown
2017-10-19 COMMENT RioCan Real Estate Investment
REI.UN-T
Andy Nasr

He likes this, as it is trading at a discount to replacement costs to net asset value. Given its dominant presence in Canada, located in some of the largest cities with the most established retailers, that are trying to cater to peoples every day needs, making them a little less susceptible to the Amazon affect, which has hurt the malls, more than the strip centres. There is a lot of opportunity for them to redeploy capital to intensify some of their properties.


Price: $24.620
Subject: REITS, GLOBAL & MACRO STRATEGY
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Yes
2017-10-19 HOLD Rogers Sugar Inc
RSI-T
Peter Hodson

It is a pretty good income stock but only that.  It has low growth and high debt ratio.  Their quota is in Canada.  It is a nice little income stock.  Take the dividend but don’t expect a lot of growth.


Price: $6.280
Subject: CANADIAN SMALL & MIDCAPS
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: Unknown
2017-10-19 COMMENT Pure Multi-Family REIT LP
RUF.U-X
Andy Nasr

Their asset class is one of the more coveted by institutions, because they are a form of lower income housing. Apartments, versus home ownership, is where a lot of people are migrating as people can’t get approval for mortgages. As a result, there has been significant rental growth in the US market, and homeownership continues to be at a multi-decade low. Hopefully that starts to reverse course, but in the interim, there is a lot of momentum for US apartments. Prefers Equity Residential (EQR-N). Dividend yield of 6%.


Price: $6.250
Subject: REITS, GLOBAL & MACRO STRATEGY
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: No
2017-10-19 PAST TOP PICK Shopify Inc.
SHOP-T
Peter Hodson

(A Past Top Pick Jan 18/17, Up 85%)  It has been called a multilevel marketing company.  They have never missed a quarter as a public company.  There are a lot of eyes on it.  They have recurring revenue.  None of the allegations are new.


Price: $122.710
Subject: CANADIAN SMALL & MIDCAPS
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: No
2017-10-19 COMMENT Toronto Dominion
TD-T
Andy Nasr

Valuations are a little more compelling in the context of higher consumer and corporate loan growth. There is also more of a capital redeployment story in the US. This bank has the 5th largest deposit base in North America. That deposit base, which is under leveraged, represents an opportunity for them to significantly increase loan growth. They should benefit from higher interest rates.


Price: $71.960
Subject: REITS, GLOBAL & MACRO STRATEGY
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Yes
2017-10-19 WATCH Trevali Mining Corp
TV-T
Peter Hodson

He tries not to forecast commodities.  There will be some tightness of supply in zinc.  Global growth looks okay.  It looks good for zinc.  If things go right in the metal then the stock will do well.


Price: $1.470
Subject: CANADIAN SMALL & MIDCAPS
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: Unknown
2017-10-19 WATCH Canopy Growth Corp.
WEED-T
Peter Hodson

He is cautious on that space.  This is the biggest one in the space.  The store front locations are very tiny.  There will be some very big players in the industry but all money raised in this industry goes into production.  He cannot get a handle on the valuation.  If you are not taken over in the next year you will be in big trouble.


Price: $11.820
Subject: CANADIAN SMALL & MIDCAPS
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: Unknown
2017-10-19 WATCH Winpak Ltd.
WPK-T
Peter Hodson

It is a really well run company.  It does not get a lot of attention.  It is not cheap but is a slow and steady performer.  You might want to own it when there is a market correction.


Price: $54.320
Subject: CANADIAN SMALL & MIDCAPS
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: Unknown
2017-10-19 COMMENT BMO Equal Weight US Banks ETF
ZBK-T
Andy Nasr

With US banks, you are probably going to get a little earnings growth and dividend growth, but it won’t be spectacular, provided the US economy remains intact. Given that the US regulatory conditions are going to ease, this is really a good capital repatriation story.


Price: $24.180
Subject: REITS, GLOBAL & MACRO STRATEGY
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Unknown
2017-10-18 N/A A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
David Burrows

Market. The 10-year chart for the S&P 500 is a thing of beauty. Trading at record levels. If looking at PEs vs estimates, there are people who will point out that the PE multiples have been moving higher, so prices are higher. Last quarter, 55% of companies beat the estimates, so estimates are too low. That has been rising. PE multiples that people are looking at are probably making stocks look more expensive than they are. Secondly, we are in an extremely low interest rate environment, and PEs can be higher. We are in a secular bull market for equities. It didn’t start until 2013. When you took out the highs from the last bull market in 2000, that was the 1st year of multiple expansion, and multiples have been expanding since. There will be corrections, but expects equities between 2013 and 2023 are probably in the teens from a return standpoint. The volatility we have been seeing, that everyone is saying is so low, is virtually identical to the early 90s and identical to the early 50s. Both were in secular bull markets. We will see a good-sized correction out there somewhere, but none of his work points to any of the things that would be happening if it were coming up soon. As long as the percentage of stocks performing well are expanding, there is no bear market or correction that has ever taken place while that is happening. The most important thing in the way a market is behaving, is how it reacts to news. For example, there have been lots of big news items last year and the market hasn’t cared.


Price: $0.020
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: BULLISH
Owned: _N/A
2017-10-18 N/A A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
David Burrows

Stop losses? He uses point and figure price charts, which mark out the orderly progress of either higher highs and higher lows, or lower lows and lower highs. He would encourage you to get a book on this. A very good one would be Tom Dorsey on point and figure charting. In the absence of that, for a longer-term investor, you could use a 150-day moving average. It is amazing how often a stock pulls back and then reverses higher at their 150-day moving average. If a stock dipped below this on heavy volume, that would be a good reason to become a seller.


Price: $0.020
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: BULLISH
Owned: _N/A
2017-10-18 COMMENT A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
David Burrows

Good stock or ETF for medical devices? He likes the area as a sector. If you check out iShares DJ Medical Devices ETF (IHI-N), it had a wonderful rally through 2016 into July 2017. Since then it has consolidated sideways, and is within a whisper of breaking out to a new high. The group is a little more economically sensitive than big Pharma, because more of these things are paid for by people who have more confidence to buy. You could also look at Stryker (SYK-N), which he owns, which manufactures hips and knees.


Price: $0.020
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: BULLISH
Owned: Unknown
2017-10-18 N/A A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
Brian Madden

Market.  The TSX has come roaring to life post labour day.  Patience and diversification paid off.  Stocks don’t go up in a straight line.  Last year Canada was the star and this year, US stocks were the top of the leader board.  He has mainly balanced portfolios.  The round number fixation on 23k will get fixated on and this is nothing unexpected.  It is probably not a reason to be nervous right now.  Don’t try to pinpoint the top or bottom of a market but maintain a balanced portfolio.  Fixed income has been sobering.  The main benchmark index has been negative two quarters in a row.  It is important for investors to realize that rising interest rates may dampen capital value of bonds, but it means when they renew, there are higher interest rates.  The do have a place in a portfolio.


Price: $0.020
Subject: CANADIAN
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: _N/A
2017-10-18 DON'T BUY A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
Brian Madden

Utilities.  He is not particularly favourable on utilities right now because we are in a rising interest rate environment.  Utilities tend to suffer multiple compression in that kind of environment as they are a bond proxy.


Price: $0.020
Subject: CANADIAN
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Unknown
2017-10-18 COMMENT A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
Brian Madden

Canadian Dollar vs. US Dollar.  He won’t forecast the near term trend on the exchange rate.  To protect a portfolio against a rising dollar is to run a balanced portfolio of Canadian and US equities as well as fixed income.  If you are only considering Canadian companies than buy those that generate the majority of their revenue in the US.  If you think the US dollar is going higher you want to underweight Gold and gold equities.


Price: $0.020
Subject: CANADIAN
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Unknown
2017-10-18 BUY Apple
AAPL-Q
David Burrows

(Market Call Minute.) You are making a bet here on augmented future reality, which is what they have done with their phones.


Price: $159.760
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: BULLISH
Owned: Yes
2017-10-18 BUY Pure Industrial Real Estatetrust Trust
AAR.UN-T
David Burrows

Industrial properties. It is more cyclical and more tied to the business cycle. As business gets better, it will likely be able to raise rents. It has now pulled back to the 150-day moving average, which is a good place to buy it. Dividend yield of 4.8% is pretty attractive.


Price: $6.440
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: BULLISH
Owned: No
2017-10-18 SELL Allergan PLC.
AGN-N
David Burrows

(Market Call Minute.) A broken stock and he would Sell it and move on.


Price: $187.150
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: BULLISH
Owned: Unknown
2017-10-18 COMMENT Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp
AQN-T
David Burrows

If you are going to be in this space, you are going to have to have growth, and this company has that. This is way outperforming the group. 4.3% dividend yield. (See Top Picks.)


Price: $13.910
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: BULLISH
Owned: Yes
2017-10-18 PAST TOP PICK Alimentation Couche-Tard (B)
ATD.B-T
Brian Madden

(A Top Pick Dec 7/16, Up 4%)  It has been underwhelming over the last 10 months.  It is an illustration of why you want to be patient and diversified.  It is a building block and serves a purpose.  What has held it back is a miss-guided belief that electric cars will kill the internal combustion engine, which he does not accept.  The decline is based on a decline in fuel traffic which in turn means a decline in convenience store sales.  He continues to like this one.


Price: $59.110
Subject: CANADIAN
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Yes
2017-10-18 BUY Alibaba Group Holding
BABA-N
David Burrows

(Market Call Minute.) If you believe in online retail, you have to believe in this company. They control China. They have the opportunity to become the world’s biggest payment company. The risk is political.


Price: $179.610
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: BULLISH
Owned: Unknown
2017-10-18 TOP PICK Bank of Nova Scotia
BNS-T
Brian Madden

It has been a strong performer this year.  It has outperformed the TSX in 18 of the last 25 years.  They have a strong footprint in rapidly growing economies.  It is a catalyst rich situation.  It is just at its 200 day moving average where it has support.  It is a perennial buy and hold.  (Analysts’ target: $86.50).


Price: $80.650
Subject: CANADIAN
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Yes
2017-10-18 COMMENT CAE Inc
CAE-T
David Burrows

He likes aerospace, both on the defence side and civil aviation side. This company really has sort of a lock on simulators, etc. He thinks the stock is okay. It pulled back to the 150-day moving average a little while ago and rallied off of that, and is trading at about $1 below its high. They have broad exposure across the sector. He wouldn’t have a problem with it, but there might be some better technical names to look at.


Price: $21.930
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: BULLISH
Owned: Unknown
2017-10-18 DON'T BUY Crescent Point Energy Corp
CPG-T
Brian Madden

One of the larger E&P companies in the sector.  He has not been that keen on the sector as of late.  The problem is a lack of pipeline capacity to get the product out.  Western Canadian Crude is trading at a decent discount.  Profitability is not where he would like to see it with most of these Canadian companies.  You want to go best of breed.  You want to own downstream assets.  He prefers SU-T because of great upstream assets as well as refineries and service stations. 


Price: $9.350
Subject: CANADIAN
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Unknown
2017-10-18 HOLD Cisco
CSCO-Q
David Burrows

Since the market ticked up in February 2016 it has been a very steady rally. The leading group off the bottom was technology. Almost always, a group that leads off the bottom will continue in the course of the cyclical rally. This group continues to lead the market. Old tech is not expensive, it is like 14X earnings. They have great cash flow. This is not the best stock in the group, but if you own it continue to hold it.


Price: $33.550
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: BULLISH
Owned: Unknown
2017-10-18 SELL Concordia International Corp
CXR-T
Brian Madden

It has lost the overwhelming majority of its value.  It is burdened with leverage.  It is important to step back and take a cold, clinical view of it.  The market does not care what you paid for it.  The prospects going forward don’t look very favourable for it.  The subordinate debt went into default this week.  The stock is more of a lottery ticket.


Price: $1.210
Subject: CANADIAN
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Unknown
2017-10-18 COMMENT Enbridge
ENB-T
David Burrows

We are in a low interest rate environment, and pipelines are something people would own if they believed we are staying in a low interest rate environment. From 2009 to 2014, there was an enormous boom in production, which meant tolls went up a lot. As they went up, earnings, cash flow and dividends went up, and the multiples that investors were prepared to pay went up. They turned into growth stocks. Then volume growth started to slow down, so the multiple has been compressing. He wouldn’t focus in bond proxies such as this.


Price: $50.420
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: BULLISH
Owned: Unknown
2017-10-18 TOP PICK Enbridge
ENB-T
Brian Madden

The largest pipeline operator in North America.  They just acquired a US pipeline and that makes their network that much bigger and more diversified.  It yields about 4.7% which is much longer than its long run average.  There is a very clearly articulated plan to grow the dividend at 10-12% compound rate of return over the next 4 years.  (Analysts’ target: $60.00).


Price: $50.420
Subject: CANADIAN
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Yes
2017-10-18 BUY Enbridge Income Fund Holdings
ENF-T
Brian Madden

It is part of a broader umbrella used as a vehicle for asset ‘drop down’ to enjoy a lower tax rate.  It has done fairly well over the long haul but sold off as of late.  He plays pipelines thought the parent, however.  But he has no qualms with this one.


Price: $31.110
Subject: CANADIAN
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: No
2017-10-18 TOP PICK FedEx
FDX-N
David Burrows

This is very sensitive to the global economy. They bought TNT and have been integrating that and reducing costs. As economic activity picks up, these quick deliveries accelerate and the pricing power improves. This is not just the US. Every major developed economy is accelerating at the same time. Dividend yield of 0.9%. (Analysts’ price target is $239.)


Price: $222.300
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: BULLISH
Owned: Yes
2017-10-18 TOP PICK CGI Group (A)
GIB.A-T
Brian Madden

There is a new CEO in the last year.  It is likely he will put his stamp on the company in some form.  It is Canada’s largest IT services company.  They could make a transformational acquisition.  They have a history of doing this.  It is a good play on the US economy where they have their largest customer.  (Analysts’ target: $74.00).


Price: $66.780
Subject: CANADIAN
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Yes
2017-10-18 BUY Intel
INTC-Q
David Burrows

He watches semiconductor stocks as a bellwether for the market. This consolidated between $38 and $33 from September until September. Then it broke out and went to $40, traded sideways for 8-9 days, and is breaking out again today. He is a big bull on the semiconductor cycle for the Internet of things. This is a really attractive company, and is talking about splitting itself sometime.


Price: $40.250
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: BULLISH
Owned: Unknown
2017-10-18 PAST TOP PICK Ingersoll-Rand Co
IR-N
David Burrows

(A Top Pick November 22/16. Up 23%.) He continues to like the industrial sector. Machinery is slowly becoming interconnected. The capital stock of the US economy is the oldest it has been in history. In the last year, companies who are spending, are being rewarded by the share prices going up.


Price: $91.220
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: BULLISH
Owned: No
2017-10-18 PAST TOP PICK JP Morgan Chase & Co
JPM-N
David Burrows

(A Top Pick November 22/16. Up 28%.) This could be another Top Pick today, if he hadn’t chosen it 3 times in the past year. Financials will benefit from a reflation cycle, probably for 5-6 years. US financials are trading at about 1X their BV, and have traded as high as 3X in the past. The best bank in the US.


Price: $97.990
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: BULLISH
Owned: Yes
2017-10-18 DON'T BUY Keyera Corp
KEY-T
Brian Madden

He lumps it into the bond proxy bucket and so does not own it.  He would prefer ENB-T because it has an element of growth – a high dividend close to 5% and an explicit plan to grow the dividend 10-12% a year.  You need this to avoid multiple compression.


Price: $37.220
Subject: CANADIAN
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: No
2017-10-18 PAST TOP PICK Manulife Financial
MFC-T
Brian Madden

(A Top Pick Dec 7/16, Up 12%)  The macro environment benefited it.  They have a strong wealth management franchise which is growing market share.  They have a very strong and rapidly growing Asian business.  Their new CEO is a strong leader.


Price: $25.860
Subject: CANADIAN
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Yes
2017-10-18 PAST TOP PICK Magna Int'l. (A)
MG-T
Brian Madden

(A Top Pick Dec 7/16, Up 15%)  Canada’s largest auto parts company.  It traditionally trades at a discount to the market.  It is an extremely profitable and rapidly growing company.  The recent surge is caused by industry specific forces and news releases.  Hurricanes in the US have affected half a million cars which will create increased demand for parts.


Price: $68.590
Subject: CANADIAN
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Yes
2017-10-18 BUY Metro Inc (A)
MRU-T
Brian Madden

There are two equal and offsetting forces.  They just made a large acquisition, taking them off their main strategy.  It looks like it will be accretive.  He likes the deal.  The offsetting headwind is the incursion of AMZN-Q into grocery.  He thinks this is overdone.  Whole foods does not have that big a presence in Canada.


Price: $40.870
Subject: CANADIAN
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: No
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