Educational Segment | StockChase
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Compiling comments that experts make about stocks while on public TV.

Educational Segment

Date Expert Opinion Subject
2014-09-15 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  Liquidity trap.  October is the last time they are doing QE.  They are pricing in the first move by next June.  You have to understand what the fixed income markets are going to do.  We won’t have the liquidity from the FED, although Europe will fill in some of the lost liquidity.

AGRICULTURE, DIVIDEND & FIXED INCOME
2015-11-02 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  Retirement and an encore career – you leave the corporation, but keep doing lots of work, possibly part-time.  One of the challenges for this is the uncertainty of returns from investments going forward.  An encore career makes your money last longer in retirement.  People are living longer, perhaps 10 years longer than you expected.  Millennials are looking at living to 110 years old. 

AGRICULTURE, DIVIDEND & FIXED INCOME
2017-01-30 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  Smart Factor ETFs.  Reducing portfolio risk.  The trend between actively managed mutual funds compared to what capital is going into ETFs show money is moving that way.  You can do asset allocation with ETFs and that is by far the most important consideration.  The bigger companies dominate the NASDAQ.  Three sectors make up half the index.  It is very concentrated and heavily weighted into a few stocks.  All smart factor ETFs beat the index.  They all have different volatilities.  You should use all of the indexing strategies in your portfolio. 

AGRICULTURE, DIVIDEND & FIXED INCOME
2014-01-13 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  Evolution of Investing.  In the last decade we found that it is all about what people think about the investment decisions.  A gold chart pattern shows a double bottom and a breakout on gold and shows it is a high probability trade:

  1. Would you sell the security
  2. Continue to hold because momentum is good in the gold sector.
  3. Tighten your stop so you at least make some money.

There is no right or wrong answer, but rather how the individual approaches the trade.  You have to understand how your mindset works and execute the trade accordingly.  Your return to risk needs to be at least 2:1.

NORTH AMERICAN & ETFs
2014-03-17 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  We are into the 29th month without a 10% correction- second longest rally ever.  This rally is in the category of extreme extended range.  Believes possibility of a 10-20% correction could play out.  Review his ‘sleep at night’ portfolio.  People should consult their advisors to see what they should do.  ZUE is the S&P 500, up 45% and ZWA is up 18%, both since 2011 lows.  ZWA is going to go down only about 70% of a correction, but you participate in any further rally.  XIU vs. bonds has done much better but would be impacted much more by a pullback.

NORTH AMERICAN & ETFs
2014-05-12 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  Smart Indexing or Smart Beta.  New improved ETFs.  Alphadex is a proprietary stock screening process.  Growth and value factors.  They eliminate the bottom quarter of the list and break the rest into quintiles to be weighted differently.  They beat their benchmark over 5 years. 

NORTH AMERICAN & ETFs
2015-01-26 Don Vialoux

Educational Segment.  He is at the largest ETF conference in the world.  Every ETF provider in the world is there describing their new products.  Greece is a hot topic.  He showed a chart of 10 year Greek bond yields. Yields have really come down.  The question of Greece leaving the Euro could lead to a rocky road in the markets.  What is happening in Greece is having an impact on your portfolio and you have to know how to handle it.  They are projecting the global ETF market will double to over 5 trillion dollars next year.  If Greece defaults on its debt it will have an effect even on North American markets.

NORTH AMERICAN & ETFs
2015-02-02 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  If you don’t understand the markets are going to go up and down then you are not ready for the markets.  The average investor’s return in the last year was 10% and the volatility was 10%.  The ideal portfolio gives you the highest return possible with the lowest volatility. 

NORTH AMERICAN & ETFs
2016-06-13 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment. Downside of negative interest rates. Negative interest rates are really stealing money away from pensioners and savers. Did a little heat map of the term structure of interest rates going 2 to 30 years in the various countries. Canada, US and UK still have relatively normal yield curves, although yields are pretty much as low as they have ever been. However, in Europe and Japan you’ve got negative interest rates. There are over $10 trillion of government yields with negative interest rates. Last week the ECB started buying corporate bonds, and there is a good chance that some corporates are going to be able to issue bonds with negative interest rates. He showed a 2006-2016 chart of the total returns of the entire US market comparing the history of stock and bond returns. When stocks go down, bonds are generally the offset. The problem in the pension world going forward is that interest rates are so low that in order to get that balance return of 6%-7%-8%, you have to use stocks, but only if you can handle the ride. The volatility is very, very different. If global bonds are going to yield 1%, in order to get your 7% in a balanced portfolio, you have to get 14%-15% in stocks. Where valuation is today, that is not doable. A passive “buy and hold” portfolio is going to be very challenging.

NORTH AMERICAN & ETFs
2016-06-20 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment. Brexit? Feels Brexit is probably not going to happen. Generally speaking, the undecided voter speaks for the status quo. What is happening globally is the anti-establishment vote. More and more people are upset. He doesn’t think Europe works in the common currency and in some of the things they are trying to do. Loves the idea of the EU and Europe working together, but the reality is that these countries did not meet their criteria and debt is a problem. A chart on the British pound shows that it broke down in January at about 1.48-1.49 when this really started to get in the mainstream. The long-term multi-decade support of 1.39-1.40 is the range. If the British pound gets above 1.49 or below 1.39 that is going to tell you how things are going to play out.

NORTH AMERICAN & ETFs
2016-06-27 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment. Brexit. At the end of every Bear cycle, if you are still bearish you make no money, markets rally. At the end of every Bull cycle, the Bulls have to feel some pain when things go down. Every correction we have seen in the last couple of years has been 1 month or 2, and then a recovery. Thinks BREXIT is enough of a catalyst, that this time it is going to be more painful, taking out the lows that we have seen earlier this year, and in the middle of last year. He showed the STOXX 600 Banking Index (European bank index chart). It showed the 08-09 lows, and lower lows in 2012. Today we are at about 6% from those lows of 2012. Those lows need to be tested and probably to be taken out at a minimum before we see people confident about coming back in to European banks. He then showed the STOXX 600, which is like the S&P 500 of Europe, a benchmark of all the European countries including the UK. Chart shows a long upward trend line from 2008, and we are sitting on the trend line now. If it breaks where do we go. Retracement levels are where you look for where the market might come back to. The trend line is almost certainly going to break, and that adds to the broader European markets of another 10%-15% downside. On fundamentals, looking at the last 5 years of the earnings, earnings have been going down. Negative interest rates don’t work, they are toxic. He doesn’t know how they stabilize things, and there is more downside to come. Fundamentally we have to go down lower, there has to be some pain. The US and Canadian markets are going to come down in sympathy. They probably retest February lows, and let hope it holds.

NORTH AMERICAN & ETFs
2015-01-05 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  Will it be a year for the Bears or the Bulls?  Lots of volatility in 2015.  Since 1900, US large caps have always been up in a year that ends with a ‘5’.  The fundamentals are nonsense.  ‘So goes January, so goes the year’.  That is nonsense also.  About 40% of the time it is true. 

Seasonality:  The first couple of months of the year are flat on average and then you sell in May and go away. 

Presidential years:  The seasonals are almost twice as strong in the 3’rd year as any other and it is because of fundamentals.  We should get a good seasonal rally starting in March. 

Buy on dips starting in January.  He would not be surprised to see the lows of the last few months to be tested once again on the TSX.  You might want to raise some cash.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & SEASONAL INVESTING
2016-12-05 Don Vialoux

Educational Segment.  Why the TSX outperforms in the early part of the year.  The Canadian market outperforms the US from December to the end of February.  It has to do with commodity prices, which move higher.  Crude oil is at the end of its seasonal weakness after which it moves higher.  Silver moves higher from December into March.  Copper moves higher from now until April.  Gasoline goes up from now until the beginning of March. 

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & SEASONAL INVESTING
2016-12-19 Don Vialoux

Educational Segment.  When Stocks are Overbought or Oversold.  Look at the percentage of stocks above and below their 50 day moving average.  Below 20% (30% in Canada) is a buying opportunity and above 80% is a selling opportunity.  These give you signs of the market preparing to sell off or to go up after buying.  He suggests you hold off until inauguration day and then you have a good opportunity to take money off the table.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & SEASONAL INVESTING
2014-06-23 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  Trying to spot a pullback.  RSI Divergences are a weaker form of divergence.  We are now seeing the third bearish divergence.  So the current rally is not as strong as it was previously.  He thinks we will get a 4-5% pullback over the summer months.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - N. A. LARGE & ETF's
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