Educational Segment | StockChase
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Compiling comments that experts make about stocks while on public TV.

Educational Segment

Date Expert Opinion Subject
2015-11-16 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  Japanese Debt.  There was a $57 billion increase in global debt since Leman.  The biggest accumulation of debt is on the government and corporate sides, not households.  Look at credit default swap spreads.  Emerging markets have higher spreads.  The bond market is starting to get on alert.  The trend has turned and this is where we watch for global systemic risk.

NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
2015-11-09 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  Asset Allocation vs. Stock Selection.  The market could care less where you bought the stock.  Most people don’t know how to get out of a stock.  Over the last 60 years, equities were the best choice, vs. bonds, but the problem is tolerance for volatility.  By combining different asset classes, you can lower volatility.  It is more important than stock selection. 

NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
2015-11-02 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  Retirement and an encore career – you leave the corporation, but keep doing lots of work, possibly part-time.  One of the challenges for this is the uncertainty of returns from investments going forward.  An encore career makes your money last longer in retirement.  People are living longer, perhaps 10 years longer than you expected.  Millennials are looking at living to 110 years old. 

AGRICULTURE, DIVIDEND & FIXED INCOME
2015-10-26 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  Real Estate (like it was a stock).  The guest is cautious on the outlook for real estate.  House maintenance is like an MER is to mutual funds or ETFs.  Real-estate is VERY expensive to maintain.  It is almost becoming a luxury product.  You should not fall in love with the value of your house as they rise and fall.  Don’t sell your own house because it is overvalued.  The current rental house in Toronto has a ‘P/E’ ratio that has risen from 5.1 to 8.5 since 2000.  Vancouver is at 11 times and New York is at 6.  Retirees want to extract maximum value from their house.  Maybe they should think about selling in this kind of market.  Condos are expensive also.

NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
2015-10-19 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  Elections.  Statistically, when the Democrats are in power, the markets do better than when the republicans are in office.  But if you throw out 1929-1932 you find it is the reverse.  This tells you the dataset is useless.  In Canada, going back to 1922, when Liberals were in power, markets did better, unless you take out the great depression and in that case they are about equal. 

NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
2015-10-05 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  Turning the Volatility Index into the Opportunity Index.  The VIX index has been nicknamed the ‘fear’ index.  That is wrong.  Turn it upside down and call it the ‘Opportunity Index’.  It is VIX divided by the square root of 12 get the monthly number and by the square root of 252 to get the daily number.  When the opportunity index is below the decline of the S&P from 52 week highs, that is a period of opportunity.

NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
2015-09-28 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  Financial Literacy.  Financial Fraud:  Guest’s book talks about avoiding identity fraud and financial fraud.  People should go to their accountant with an offering memorandum before investing.  The accountant should be independent of the offerer. 

NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
2015-09-21 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  Opportunity and Event Risk.  This week there is an election in Spain.  The US debt ceiling in October will be a market moving event.  How do you navigate around them?  His current road show addresses this.  He addresses events by moving in and out of equities.  When an event occurs he goes back to see similar events and sees what happens to look for opportunities. 

NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
2015-09-14 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  It is FED Week.  What happens with interest rates for the next couple of years is really important for investors.  The probability of them moving up a full 25 basis points next week is about 20%.  He is expecting half that.  There is about a 60% chance that the Fed does a half a move.  In the 50’s when interest rates went up at first when hikes started, the markets also went up because it was due to the economy being stronger.  He does not think we will get over tightened any time soon.  He thinks that even if the FED tightens 4 times, the markets will still be strong.  There is no historical period to use as reference as to what to expect.  He thinks lower rates are here to stay for quite a while. 

NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
2015-08-31 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  Fees Related to ETFs and their Impact on Returns.  Regulations regarding performance require you publish the gross of fee returns to the public.  This is because there are various fee classes.  You have to back out fees to see what you are actually paying.  iShares is about 54%, BMO 27%, and Vanguard is 7% of the ETF market.  He mentions the ones that are 80% of the market more often.  He has a bias towards BMO, however because he prefers the way they do covered calls, for example.  He prefers equal weights to market weights.  MERs are not the whole story.  There are cost of trade, acquisition cost (spread), and tracking error as well, which all impact your actual returns.

NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
2015-08-17 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  How to position yourself for a low growth environment.  He has an equal weight portfolio:

ETF

Yield

Beta

ZHY

6.4%

39.7%

ZPR

5.1%

15.5%

ZDV

4.6%

75.3%

ZUE

1.8%

91.6%

ZDM

3.1%

103%

ZEM

1.7%

81.1%

ZWU

6.4%

64%

ZRE

5.4%

45.2%

Average

4.3%

64.4%

He gets about 45% exposure to Canada and an average yield of just over 4%.  YTD he got 2.16%, ahead 3.6%.  Annualized since inception is 9.55%. 

NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
2015-08-10 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  Health of US Economy.  It is not nearly as healthy as the bulls would have it.  A Chart of Debt to GDP was displayed.  Since ’09 it has increased dramatically to 105%.  The US public debt was $9.2 Trillion in ’08 and is $18.2 today.  It is starting to become a big problem.  He thinks interest rates will stay low for 25 years because of the US public debt.  He does not think the US economy is actually in good shape.

NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
2015-07-27 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  Market Breadth.  There are a handfull of stocks that are leading the markets higher, but the average stock is not participating.  VT-N is the entire world of global equities.  Over the last year we have moved to a flat pattern compared to 2012-2014.  How many stocks are above the 200 day moving average?  Only 51.8%, quite a drop off.  This is classic of the late stage of a bull market.  In New York it is below 40% now.  Starting Q1 last year, small caps started to outperform dramatically.  In ’97-’99, small cap stocks started underperforming.  When markets ultimately made their highs in 2000, small caps kicked up.  He is looking for a 10-15% correction, not a bear market.

NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
2015-07-06 Don Vialoux

Educational Segment.  Volatility vs. Markets.  When the volatility spikes, the market goes down.  This happens every year.  Reduce equities in May and watch for volatility.  Then the summer rally happens.  Last year it happened in the middle of October.  But a lot of times it happens in the summer.  As of today, your finger should be on the trigger to maybe buy over the next two to three weeks.  You have to watch for the trend of volatility to end.  Wait for the VIX to come down again, completing the spike.  Gold seasonality:  July 9th, gold usually starts to go higher until the end of October.  Support going back to last November is still in place.

NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
2015-06-29 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  How you may want to invest during the Greek Meltdown.  GREK-N is an ETF that trades in the US.  There are no Canadian banks that deal in Athens trading.  Forget about the Greek debt.  The individual cannot play that.  In 2012 we came off the bottoms and got a massive rally.  The potential to double your money is great, but it is not risk free.  The two year Greek bond is trading at about 33%, suggesting the probability of default is 50%.  The Market is telling you they are leaving the Euro.  You have to view the investment after currency conversion.  The risk is 50% on taking a haircut based on the currency risk. 

NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
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