Educational Segment | StockChase
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Compiling comments that experts make about stocks while on public TV.

Educational Segment

Date Expert Opinion Subject
2015-12-21 Don Vialoux

Educational Segment.  The Electoral Seasonality.  During a presidential election year, the US market slightly underperforms the average.  There is not much change earlier in the year.  But super Tuesday is March 1st when 14 primaries happen.  Around the end of May they have their candidates and from there until the beginning of September, the US market outperforms what it usually does.  The market then goes down until just before the election.  This year they changed the election laws regarding campaign spending (Super Packs).  After the election on November 8th, the markets go higher until the end of the year.

2015-12-14 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  A Recap of his 2015 Predictions and a look at 2016.  China slowed as he predicted.  He expected the anti-EU party to get in in Greece.  He thought they would leave the EU and still thinks it will eventually do so and also that the EU will eventually break up.  In 2016 the biggest risk is credit risk.  The last time credit spreads were this high, the S&P was 20% lower.  He sees a 15-20% correction in 2016.  There are geopolitical risks, ISIS being one of them.  He expects the Fed rate to be 0.75 to 1% by the end of next year.  He predicted crude oil would go down and he thinks it will at best get back to $60 by end of 2016.

2015-12-07 Don Vialoux

Educational Segment. How the markets have reacted to previous rate increases + the El Nino effect on stocks.  The market always goes down prior to the first rate increase.  After the rate increase, the market over the next 3 months goes up over 10%.  The US dollar goes lower.  The same has happened in Canada 6 of 7 times.  Environment Canada has said it will be warmer than average in Canada because of El Nino.  Industrial production increases because more can get done in a warmer winter.  Stock markets do better because of these production increases, although retailers sell less winter coats, energy does less well also.  Don’t be afraid to be in markets over the next three months.

2015-11-30 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  Tax Loss Selling.  This is tax loss selling season.  Energy is the worst sector this year.  FHE-T gives a selection of US energy companies, traded in Canadian dollars, no hedging.  You sell the stocks for tax loss and then buy back this ETF to keep your exposure.  They decided not to hedge to the US $ last year.  Canadian dollar ETFs with US holdings are not subject to US estate taxes on high net worth investors upon death.

2015-11-23 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  Roll-ups in Horizons ETFs.  It is a round of consolidations of ETFs through unit consolidations.  It has to do with moving from one futures contract to another, where you lose some premium.  HNU-T is one of their most popular ETFs.  The loss of some premium of futures contracts is a headwind for this ETF.  The average hold time is a day or two.  Your average hold time has to be less than a week.

2015-11-16 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  Japanese Debt.  There was a $57 billion increase in global debt since Leman.  The biggest accumulation of debt is on the government and corporate sides, not households.  Look at credit default swap spreads.  Emerging markets have higher spreads.  The bond market is starting to get on alert.  The trend has turned and this is where we watch for global systemic risk.

2015-11-09 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  Asset Allocation vs. Stock Selection.  The market could care less where you bought the stock.  Most people don’t know how to get out of a stock.  Over the last 60 years, equities were the best choice, vs. bonds, but the problem is tolerance for volatility.  By combining different asset classes, you can lower volatility.  It is more important than stock selection. 

2015-11-02 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  Retirement and an encore career – you leave the corporation, but keep doing lots of work, possibly part-time.  One of the challenges for this is the uncertainty of returns from investments going forward.  An encore career makes your money last longer in retirement.  People are living longer, perhaps 10 years longer than you expected.  Millennials are looking at living to 110 years old. 

2015-10-26 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  Real Estate (like it was a stock).  The guest is cautious on the outlook for real estate.  House maintenance is like an MER is to mutual funds or ETFs.  Real-estate is VERY expensive to maintain.  It is almost becoming a luxury product.  You should not fall in love with the value of your house as they rise and fall.  Don’t sell your own house because it is overvalued.  The current rental house in Toronto has a ‘P/E’ ratio that has risen from 5.1 to 8.5 since 2000.  Vancouver is at 11 times and New York is at 6.  Retirees want to extract maximum value from their house.  Maybe they should think about selling in this kind of market.  Condos are expensive also.

2015-10-19 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  Elections.  Statistically, when the Democrats are in power, the markets do better than when the republicans are in office.  But if you throw out 1929-1932 you find it is the reverse.  This tells you the dataset is useless.  In Canada, going back to 1922, when Liberals were in power, markets did better, unless you take out the great depression and in that case they are about equal. 

2015-10-05 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  Turning the Volatility Index into the Opportunity Index.  The VIX index has been nicknamed the ‘fear’ index.  That is wrong.  Turn it upside down and call it the ‘Opportunity Index’.  It is VIX divided by the square root of 12 get the monthly number and by the square root of 252 to get the daily number.  When the opportunity index is below the decline of the S&P from 52 week highs, that is a period of opportunity.

2015-09-28 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  Financial Literacy.  Financial Fraud:  Guest’s book talks about avoiding identity fraud and financial fraud.  People should go to their accountant with an offering memorandum before investing.  The accountant should be independent of the offerer. 

2015-09-21 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  Opportunity and Event Risk.  This week there is an election in Spain.  The US debt ceiling in October will be a market moving event.  How do you navigate around them?  His current road show addresses this.  He addresses events by moving in and out of equities.  When an event occurs he goes back to see similar events and sees what happens to look for opportunities. 

2015-09-14 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  It is FED Week.  What happens with interest rates for the next couple of years is really important for investors.  The probability of them moving up a full 25 basis points next week is about 20%.  He is expecting half that.  There is about a 60% chance that the Fed does a half a move.  In the 50’s when interest rates went up at first when hikes started, the markets also went up because it was due to the economy being stronger.  He does not think we will get over tightened any time soon.  He thinks that even if the FED tightens 4 times, the markets will still be strong.  There is no historical period to use as reference as to what to expect.  He thinks lower rates are here to stay for quite a while. 

2015-08-31 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  Fees Related to ETFs and their Impact on Returns.  Regulations regarding performance require you publish the gross of fee returns to the public.  This is because there are various fee classes.  You have to back out fees to see what you are actually paying.  iShares is about 54%, BMO 27%, and Vanguard is 7% of the ETF market.  He mentions the ones that are 80% of the market more often.  He has a bias towards BMO, however because he prefers the way they do covered calls, for example.  He prefers equal weights to market weights.  MERs are not the whole story.  There are cost of trade, acquisition cost (spread), and tracking error as well, which all impact your actual returns.

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