Educational Segment | StockChase
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Compiling comments that experts make about stocks while on public TV.

Educational Segment

Date Expert Opinion Subject
2016-07-25 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  Concerns about the weekend’s G20 meeting.  They are agreeing to continue spending and not worrying about who is going to pay for it.  We need the growth pickup in the world, but the problem is the debt getting bigger.  150% of the world’s GDP has come from debt since the Lehman moment.  You can’t stimulate by weakening your currency, but that is what they are doing.  Infrastructure ETFs are very expensive right now.

2016-07-18 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  Crisis for Savers.  In Europe in asset classes, there will be negative real returns.  They expect 4.3% in emerging markets.  The buy and hold world is going to be challenged for the next number of years.  Fixed income and treasuries are looking negative.  Small caps are looking like zero returns.  Higher volatility investments will have higher returns.  Most returns come from the currency of the country. 

2016-07-11 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  Earnings Season.  Brexit and so on will get pushed to the back burner temporarily.  The focus will be on earnings.  Revenue is important.  The S&P is expected to decline in earnings for the 5th quarter in a row.  It is expected to be down 0.8%.  Next year the expectation is that revenue growth comes back.  Technology and financials are expected to be bad for Q2/16, but to grow a lot in 2017.  Price to sales ratio.  In ’98 to ’00, markets doubled.  The price of the S&P vs. its revenue got to a little over 2.  We don’t have that same economic tailwind now.  The current ratio is 1.9.  When the price to sales ratio is this extreme, companies miss all the time in earnings.  There is a risk of a 10 to 15% correction.

2016-07-04 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  Is Italy Too Big to Fail?  Italian vs. European banks:  all banks across Europe are underperforming.  In Italy, 20% of all outstanding loans are non-performing.  The Spanish banking index has been dropping since 2014.  It is by no means free and clear for Europe.  This is a big challenge and it is not over by a long shot.  Markets are going to stay volatile for a long time yet.

2016-06-27 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment. Brexit. At the end of every Bear cycle, if you are still bearish you make no money, markets rally. At the end of every Bull cycle, the Bulls have to feel some pain when things go down. Every correction we have seen in the last couple of years has been 1 month or 2, and then a recovery. Thinks BREXIT is enough of a catalyst, that this time it is going to be more painful, taking out the lows that we have seen earlier this year, and in the middle of last year. He showed the STOXX 600 Banking Index (European bank index chart). It showed the 08-09 lows, and lower lows in 2012. Today we are at about 6% from those lows of 2012. Those lows need to be tested and probably to be taken out at a minimum before we see people confident about coming back in to European banks. He then showed the STOXX 600, which is like the S&P 500 of Europe, a benchmark of all the European countries including the UK. Chart shows a long upward trend line from 2008, and we are sitting on the trend line now. If it breaks where do we go. Retracement levels are where you look for where the market might come back to. The trend line is almost certainly going to break, and that adds to the broader European markets of another 10%-15% downside. On fundamentals, looking at the last 5 years of the earnings, earnings have been going down. Negative interest rates don’t work, they are toxic. He doesn’t know how they stabilize things, and there is more downside to come. Fundamentally we have to go down lower, there has to be some pain. The US and Canadian markets are going to come down in sympathy. They probably retest February lows, and let hope it holds.

2016-06-20 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment. Brexit? Feels Brexit is probably not going to happen. Generally speaking, the undecided voter speaks for the status quo. What is happening globally is the anti-establishment vote. More and more people are upset. He doesn’t think Europe works in the common currency and in some of the things they are trying to do. Loves the idea of the EU and Europe working together, but the reality is that these countries did not meet their criteria and debt is a problem. A chart on the British pound shows that it broke down in January at about 1.48-1.49 when this really started to get in the mainstream. The long-term multi-decade support of 1.39-1.40 is the range. If the British pound gets above 1.49 or below 1.39 that is going to tell you how things are going to play out.

2016-06-13 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment. Downside of negative interest rates. Negative interest rates are really stealing money away from pensioners and savers. Did a little heat map of the term structure of interest rates going 2 to 30 years in the various countries. Canada, US and UK still have relatively normal yield curves, although yields are pretty much as low as they have ever been. However, in Europe and Japan you’ve got negative interest rates. There are over $10 trillion of government yields with negative interest rates. Last week the ECB started buying corporate bonds, and there is a good chance that some corporates are going to be able to issue bonds with negative interest rates. He showed a 2006-2016 chart of the total returns of the entire US market comparing the history of stock and bond returns. When stocks go down, bonds are generally the offset. The problem in the pension world going forward is that interest rates are so low that in order to get that balance return of 6%-7%-8%, you have to use stocks, but only if you can handle the ride. The volatility is very, very different. If global bonds are going to yield 1%, in order to get your 7% in a balanced portfolio, you have to get 14%-15% in stocks. Where valuation is today, that is not doable. A passive “buy and hold” portfolio is going to be very challenging.

2016-06-06 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  Growth.  The ECRI have some great free stuff on their web site.  Dips in the GDI below 0 mean we are in a recession.  Less than 2% is a period of stagnation and is where it has been for the last couple of years.   We can expect this to continue and it depends somewhat on who wins the election and what they do with minimum wage laws.  Another great indicator is a 20 country coincident growth diffusion indicator.  Below .50 is contractionary and that is where it has been over the last couple of years. 

2016-05-30 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational segment.  Sell in May and Go Away?  On May 19 we broke the neck like of the head and shoulders pattern.  The bulls are now back in control.  Seasonally there is talk of selling in May.  Historically this has worked.  From 1928 to today in the the S&P, he showed a chart of weekly price returns and it is flat May to October each year.  The fourth year of a presidential year is different.  The seasonal patterns for the next couple of months in 4th years are quite positive.  There is weakness in September and October, however.

2016-05-16 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  Head and Shoulders Pattern.  This is THE best pattern and the most reliable pattern.  You get higher highs and high lows over a period of time and then you make a lower high and a lower low.  The neck line is the trend from shoulder to shoulder.  We had the S&P in an uptrend since Feb lows and then in April it had a head and in May it is having a second shoulder.  You have a lot of support in the 1970 area and if you are going to buy in the next while, it will be a good time.  However, he is worried about the market in September/October. 

2016-05-09 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment. Companies buying back shares.  There are a couple of ETFs that focus on these companies.  When you look at what share buy backs have done over the last 7 years to earnings, it has grossed up earnings per share by 25% for the S&P.  Companies generally buy back 10 to 15% of shares when they do so.  The earnings per share go up, but the EPS goes down.  The market likes share buy backs, but it indicates the company does not see many growth prospects for themselves.  There is a buyback index.  Buying back shares was good until 2000.  It is not good when interest rates are likely to rise.  PKW-T does not always outperform and has not been doing so for the last year.  Watch out when companies are increasing the rate of buying back shares.

2016-05-02 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  Artificial Intelligence and ETFs.  The Buzz Index.  His guest looks at social media and identifies the top 25 stocks with the most bullish prospects.  He uses the power of the computer to scan social media for comments he is looking for.  Software uses natural language processing.  He also tries to gauge how many people are listening to the person posting. 

2016-04-25 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational segment. The zero interest rate policy.  The central banks are ripping about a trillion dollars away from the savers.  This is actually effectively the biggest increase in taxes for savers in history.  Japan cannot do anything to stimulate growth except to lower the value of the currency.  There is $75 Billion in in ETFs that Japan has purchased in the last few years to try to stimulate the economy.  The largest economy in the world (USA) is not growing if it was not for borrowing.  Borrowing in the system is going up and GDP growth is going down.  They just can’t keep going on like this.

2016-04-18 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  An agreement among stop producers did not happen.  They were talking of freezing production.  But if he was running Iran and had been under sanctions for 5 years, he would pump as much as he could to get his share of the revenue.  Probably the highs we have seen recently are all we are going to see for now.  5 years ago OECD did not have a clue what fracking would do.  Right now they are expecting no material increase in production in North America for over a decade.  The XEG-T trend line is up, but we have to watch for it to break down.  We have 10-15% correction risk.  ZJO-T is energy and juniors would have 15-20% correction risk.

2016-04-11 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  A Safe Withdrawal Rate from Retirement Savings (e.g. RRSP/RRIF).  With a 5% interest rate return, it would have taken $178k for an income of $48k through retirement.  Now you have to put $563k to get the same payout.  This environment crushes the savers.  Less than 10% of Canadians have a financial plan.  You HAVE to have one.  There is a pending crisis regarding retirement because of low interest rates.  If you withdraw at too high a rate, you run out of money.

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