Educational Segment | StockChase
stockchase picture

Compiling comments that experts make about stocks while on public TV.

Educational Segment

Date Expert Opinion Subject
2016-11-07 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  Smart ETFs - Multi-factor products.  iShares has a forecast on where things are going.  They see $1 Trillion US$ by 2020 and 2.5 by 2025 in these products.   There are two factors suggesting these forecasts:  They has the potential to disrupt active management; and the have the potential to address the challenges investors are facing in today’s market.  What is new about mult- factor investing is the technology. It is based on long term proven drivers of return.  Their approach of combining factors means you don’t have to forecast which is the winning factor of the future.  Value, size, quality and momentum are the four factors they combine into one investment solution.  If you look at F-class (compensation component of cost is removed) mutual funds they have a cost of just below 1%.  iShares multi-factor ETFs are 45 basis points.  It is more affordable.

2016-10-31 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  Fundamental Indexing.  Market Cap indexes are the traditional way to do indexes and fundamental indexing looks at cash flow, profitability, dividend sustainability and so on.  It is a rules based approach that focuses on the strength of the underlying companies.  Market weight is a popularity contest.  E.g. Nortel.  It went from 3% to 30% of the TSX index.  It represents a key flaw of market weight investing.  You would have ridden it all the way back down.  VRX-T did something similar being 9% of the TSX 60 at its height.  Returns are better in fundamental indexing rather than market cap indexing.  It will not win over every part of the cycle but long term it wins.  Larry’s guest runs his screen once per year.  Running it more often incurs trading costs and so on.  Research shows you only run it once a year.  These funds have a few basis points more MER and are worth it.

2016-10-24 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  Smart Beta ETFs.  They are smart indexing products.  Low beta or volatility strategies address investor outcomes using Beta.  They look for low beta.  If you weight beta and ensure diversification across the market place, you get less risk.  Low beta is not expensive but in line with the market place.   There is also a ‘quality’ based set of ETFs.  They look at debt to equity to reduce volatility.  These ETFs are managed by computer and not actively managed by a portfolio manager.  You pay a bit more than a non-smart ETF.  The low volatility and higher quality strategies have historically done better through history.

2016-10-17 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  ‘Smart’ ETFs.  A Beta of 1 means ‘market’. They researched factors back to the 1950s and if you screen for these factors you can do better than market weighted portfolios.  You can pay a bit more, but you get a slightly better return.  Smart ETFs are rule based rather than actively managed.  This is the fastest growing area in ETFs.

2016-10-03 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  Today's educational segment was pre-empted by an announcement by the federal government on housing.

2016-09-26 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  Currency effects on your portfolio.  Over the next decade, average returns are going to be lower.  When you invest globally, currency is the most important consideration.  When the CAD$ is getting weaker, you are making money. However, when it gets weaker, it reduces profits.  With ETFs you can control the currency.  Currency explains about 70% of the difference in returns when investing globally. 

2016-09-19 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  The market thinks the likelihood is 18% for a rate hike.  He thinks they will go for it this week, however.  They have not unexpectedly raised rates since 1994.  ’94 was the worse bond market we had for a generation.  This will not be similar.  It is all about the psychology of how they do it.  We will almost certainly get another recession in the next couple of years and Canada and the US will have to go to negative interest rates.  Economic numbers are getting worse, but the market has not reacted. 

2016-09-12 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  Increased Volatility Coming to the Markets.  There are lots of ways to measure it.  One way is to use the Bollinger bands.  It uses 20 days, or about a month.  The spread got down to below 2% for the longest period in decades recently.  We had ultra low volatility.  In history all the times it has fallen below 2%, we are in for a period of a market correction.  It does not help us to know how long the correction will be.  He believes it will be at least a couple of months.

2016-08-29 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  The US$.  The market changed dramatically after the Fed said the rates were to go up September and December both.  The Euro is 57.6% of the US dollar index, so it matters what Europe does.  The notion that currency doesn’t matter is wrong.  It is the most important factor when investing.  A rate hike will put downward pressure on commodities and upward pressure on the US$.  He thinks we re-test the Brexit lows over the next couple of months.

2016-08-22 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  Why rates can rise and what to do to take advantage.  Bernanke has used this week’s speech in the past to change things.  Last week we had the minutes from the July meeting causing the market to see no raised rates.  Since then a number of Fed speakers have said it could change.  There is still only a 26% chance they raise rates in September.  He thinks the Fed are not considering the election in making interest rate increase decisions.  He thinks there is a much higher chance that rates go up in September.  He recommends sitting in US cash and make 3-4% while you wait.  DLR-T and PSU.U-T and SHV-N play the US dollar as well.  

2016-08-15 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment – Fewer and fewer stocks are lifting the markets and this should concern investors.  Market breadth is an important concept.  He looks at stocks making new 52 week highs.  100 or more stocks is a lot of stocks to make 52 week highs.  The top 10 holdings in the S&P are 18% of the market and can lift it.  He showed a chart of the number of stocks making new highs over time.  The market is going up and the percentage of stocks making new highs is low compared to 2013-2015.  This is not a broad based rally but late cycle.  There are big risks for downgrades in the fourth quarter.  He compared the consumer cyclical and retailing.  The latter is not doing well but the big names are doing well and lifting the index.  You should look at what the whole market is doing.  It is not a robust trend 8 years into a bull market.  It is not a broad based rally so don’t chase it.

2016-07-25 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  Concerns about the weekend’s G20 meeting.  They are agreeing to continue spending and not worrying about who is going to pay for it.  We need the growth pickup in the world, but the problem is the debt getting bigger.  150% of the world’s GDP has come from debt since the Lehman moment.  You can’t stimulate by weakening your currency, but that is what they are doing.  Infrastructure ETFs are very expensive right now.

2016-07-18 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  Crisis for Savers.  In Europe in asset classes, there will be negative real returns.  They expect 4.3% in emerging markets.  The buy and hold world is going to be challenged for the next number of years.  Fixed income and treasuries are looking negative.  Small caps are looking like zero returns.  Higher volatility investments will have higher returns.  Most returns come from the currency of the country. 

2016-07-11 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  Earnings Season.  Brexit and so on will get pushed to the back burner temporarily.  The focus will be on earnings.  Revenue is important.  The S&P is expected to decline in earnings for the 5th quarter in a row.  It is expected to be down 0.8%.  Next year the expectation is that revenue growth comes back.  Technology and financials are expected to be bad for Q2/16, but to grow a lot in 2017.  Price to sales ratio.  In ’98 to ’00, markets doubled.  The price of the S&P vs. its revenue got to a little over 2.  We don’t have that same economic tailwind now.  The current ratio is 1.9.  When the price to sales ratio is this extreme, companies miss all the time in earnings.  There is a risk of a 10 to 15% correction.

2016-07-04 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  Is Italy Too Big to Fail?  Italian vs. European banks:  all banks across Europe are underperforming.  In Italy, 20% of all outstanding loans are non-performing.  The Spanish banking index has been dropping since 2014.  It is by no means free and clear for Europe.  This is a big challenge and it is not over by a long shot.  Markets are going to stay volatile for a long time yet.

Showing 31 to 45 of 198 entries
<< < 1 2 3 4 5 > >>