Educational Segment | StockChase
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Compiling comments that experts make about stocks while on public TV.

Educational Segment

Date Expert Opinion Subject
2013-06-17 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  BXF-T is a way to play the bond market with strip bonds.  He has non-couponed bonds in a ladder.  But you can put these in a taxable account because there is no coupon.  There is no management fee for the first year.

NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
2013-06-03 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  Have we seen a healthy correction in the US markets?  2 weeks back to back of negative behavior in the S&P.  Candle stick charts.  The bigger the bar, the bigger the change from opening and closing price.  Slide showed the 5 basic patterns.  What we see on the S&P in the last couple of weeks, we are getting 1 to 2 months of correction after the recent move.  What we are seeing is bearish.  Doesn’t think correction will be more than 10% (between 5&10%).

NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
2013-05-27 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  How to get more Bang for Your Buck.  How to protect your portfolio as the Canadian dollar weakens.  Looking for $0.90 dollar in the next year.  Our banks may underperform other markets in the world.  BMO have a couple of other fixed income ETFs - hedged and unhedged.  You can play US sectors in Canadian, hedged or unhedged dollars.  One with a higher dividend is just south of 4%.  If Canadian dollar goes to 90 cents but you get a 4% dividend, you might not get any impact from a 10% correction in the US market.  You have a choice to access the US market with hedged or unhedged ETFs.  You don’t pay US estate tax for High Net Worth investors, using Canadian ETFs investing in the US.

NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
2013-05-13 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational segment 30 year treasury yield, if yields get above 3.5 percent he feels that the bond run isn't over.  He fields that bonds are a better bet over stocks for the next 4 quarters. Inflation is the number one fear of bond holders.

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2013-04-29 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  Is it time to sell-in-May-and-go-away?  Year to date chart on the Dow.  It crossed it’s 50 day average to start the year.  It has been straight up generally but now we have a pause.  Next chart has 7 Dow stocks and some have started to break down.  IBM had a major break down recently.  3M – lower lows and lower highs.  GE is starting to roll over now.  At a market peak, the stocks start to roll over one by one.  There’s lots of other signals, but this has been going into play for a couple of months.  We are starting to see more and more of a decay.  Go away, but where are we going down to?  He is looking for a relatively minor correction – 5-10%.  If the trend line from 2009 breaks then it will be different and we get a more significant correction.

NOT APPLICABLE
2013-04-15 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  How much Equity Exposure Should I have.  Old rule was age is percent of equities.  He thinks this is nonsense.  You need to know your tolerance for risk, your need for income.  Means – do you have enough?  That helps you define how much risk you have to take.  It is not about age.  With interest rates at 2-3%, you need to get 15% on stocks and 3% on bonds to get you the rate of return you need.  XBB shows Canadian Bond Market has done well with much less volatility.

 

ETF Risk And Return:

Ticker

Ann.

Return

Stand

Dev.

XIC

4.86%

10.71%

XBB

6.44%

3.15%

SPY

12.67%

15.01%

AGG

4.52%

5.06%

EFA

5%

19.35%

IGOV

3.03%

9.16%

EEM

3.27%

21.12%

EMB

10.3%

7.05%

XME

-9.62%

31.04%

XEG

2.58%

15.79%

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2013-04-01 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  Are Markets Healthy.  He looks at a series of charts:

Advance Decline Line broke out a couple of months ago making higher highs, good. 

Percent of stocks making 52 week highs – a spike a couple of months ago and now fewer and fewer stocks are participating in the markets making new highs, bad.

Percentage companies above trend line (50 and 200 day) – Higher reading couple of months ago but now lower – looking ok right now but some weakness, neutral.

Call to Put ratio, neutral.

Sentiment readings, (bull vs. bear), neutral.

Summary: Ultimately there is a lot of confusion on the part of investors.

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2013-03-25 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment. Tracking European Sentiment through an ETF.  EUFN allows following the market sentiment.  The European financial sector made highs in 2010/2011 but US XLF-N just recently took out highs and made higher highs.  The trend line of the last 6-8 months has broken, though.  Europe is starting to break down here, lead by the financials and that is problematic.  Watch this closely.  If Europe is going to be healthy then European banks need to be healthy. 

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2013-03-18 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment. Behavioral Finance.  People make investment decisions emotionally rather than rationally and that can be problematic.  How you think about pulling the trigger on buy and sell decisions has a lot to do with your outcome.  Let’s say you buy a great stock you saw talked about on TV for $53 and a couple of weeks later a scathing report comes out by a bear guy and the stock is now trading at $40.  Then a guy comes out on TV and says it's going to $15 but another says it will return to the 52 week highs.  Do you double up? Do you put a stop loss in?  Do you wait a week and call in to this show?  Only the stop loss is a rational choice.  You have to have a plan. 

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2013-03-04 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  Look at gold price as a percentage compared to gold mining equities over the last 7 years.  Equities are flat while gold has gone up 200-300%.  The costs of production are going up at a significant clip.  When they find new reserves, the quality of the reserves are declining.  They are going after gold dust.  The gold industry needs something like Fracking.  Or it could be more disciplined in capital spending.  A lot of cost inflation in gold mining is related to oil prices.  All the central banks have been buying but gold has not broken out.

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2013-02-25 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  There are a couple of different ways to trade.  You can get out or change your risk profile and still be in the market.  ZEB-T shows how much the sector correction is (10%).  Look at the preferreds.  ETFs can play them.  You get a lot of financials in the basket.  The yield is a little higher.  If you look at the ETF vs. the preferreds.  The ETF has done better.

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2013-02-11 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  Trends in ETFs.  The big buzz is the move into active ETFs.  About 4% at present.  Active means it is not based on an index.  Horizons in Canada (alpha series) is the biggest.  An example is one based on seasonality (HAC-T or HAG-T).  You have to look at them carefully.  You have to know the manager with these types of ETFs.  They are expecting more ETFs to shut down than are launched this year because they aren’t successful. 

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2013-02-04 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment. Managing your own money better.  Most people are interested in how to manage an income portfolio, e.g.:

ETF

Yield

Std.Dev.

CBO

3.75%

1.10%

VAB

3.98%

3.82%

XHB

5.48%

7.80%

XHY

5.88%

9.25%

XLB

3.84%

11.90%

Avg. Yield: 4.20%, Std.Dev. 7.25%. 

Above would be equally weighted with dividend portfolio, e.g.:

ETF

Yield

Std.Dev.

ZDV

4.19%

8.91%

XIU

2.16%

12.01%

ZUT

5.04%

9.22%

CPD

4.42%

1.97%

XRE

4.86%

9.18%

Avg. Yield: 4.20%, Std.Dev. 7.25%. 

The different bond ETFs have different volatilities.  The reward people can get is defined by the risk they can take. 

You can shift between bonds and equities without making a significant change in the yield.  You have to re-balance your portfolio from time to time.

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2013-01-28 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment. How to Manage an ETF Portfolio.  Maryanne Wiley is the Guest.  Look at 2012.  Record inflows into the category.  ETFs worldwide passed the two $trillion mark last week.  There is talk of investors not getting back into the markets but now they are getting back in and choosing to use some ETFs.  Transparency is important as is access.  They provide better ways to do so.  Investors are becoming wiser, living longer and need more money to get through retirement.  They can increase returns or reduce costs and ETFs do a little bit of both.  There are lots of places you can learn more together about the products or how to put together a portfolio. 

 

Diversified Income Portfolio:

Ticker

Weight

Yield

XCB

10%

3.76%

XGB

10%

2.88%

XHB

10%

5.48%

XHY

10%

5.88%

XLB

10%

3.84%

Year

 2012

 2011

Average:

Return

8.87%

 7.20%

 8.08%

Std Dev:

2.81

3.88

3.26

 

Aggressive Portfolio (Approximately the weighting of the world, for someone who has a number of years to retirement):

Ticker

Weight

Yield

XEM

15%

1.40%

XIC

10%

1.98%

XIN

35%

1.58%

XSP

30%

2.01%

XSU

10%

1.84%

Year

2012

2011

Average:

Return

15.73%

 -8.14%

 3.09%

Std Dev:

11.05

15.13

13.35

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2013-01-21 Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment.  There is a push for transparency on fees.  ETFs are great that way.  Nobody works for free.  Front end load says you pay the fee upfront when buying a fund.  A deferred sales charge charges the client when they get out.  ‘F’ class is where the fee is charged outside of the funds.  

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