Brian Madden

That's right. Belatedly for Canadians, we've seen the S&P/TSX Composite Index join its US equity index counterparts breaking out to fresh all-time highs in the last couple of weeks. He's increasingly encouraged with the durability of this ongoing cyclical bull market, in no small part due to the fact that it has broadened out.

In Q1, we saw 9 of the 11 economic sectors in Canada participate in the rise in the equity indices; 10/11 sectors in the US. Notable laggards are the interest-sensitives of utilities, telecoms, and real estate. 77% of all S&P 500 index members rose in Q1; 69% here in Canada. Historically, pretty strong breadth numbers. The foot soldiers are advancing alongside the generals (Mag 7). This increases confidence in the bull market.

Have to be mindful in the short to medium term that we've just had two back-to-back breathtaking performances by both Canadian and US stock markets. Markets don't move in a straight line. Reversals can be sharp, swift, sudden, and seem to come out of nowhere. One of the tells often is an extreme in sentiment.

He looks at the American Association of Individual Investors survey. Right now, 50% of US investors are bullish, and 22% are bearish. That's a lopsided sentiment. Not extreme, but fairly stretched. Signalling a yellow flag of caution. Could see a garden-variety correction of 5-10% in equity indices at any point.

One of the most valuable brands in the world. Global giant. About 50% off of 2021 highs. Forward growth expectations compounded over 3 years about 16% in terms of earnings, faster growth than what analysts are projecting. This is predicated on margin improvement. Shift to direct-consumer sales is secular tailwind to gross margins. Lots of free cashflow, buying back stock. 23x, cheaper than historical average of 31x. Yield is 1.7%.

He's looking very closely. Hasn't pulled trigger yet.

Secular tailwind is rising adoption of e-commerce. "E-commerce in a box" for small outfits. Increasingly larger enterprise customers. Shifted to a less capital-intensive strategy. Earnings reports are usually a catalyst. Continues to roll out ancillary offerings, which increase take rate. Pullback is a buyable dip.

Strength in brand and company. Headwinds in the apparel category, weighing on demand. Higher price point, somewhat discretionary (though depends who you ask ;) Show-me. High expectations. Watch and wait for a couple of back-to-back stronger quarters. Price trend is down.

Siren song of the high dividend lures many investors. Dividend investing is not just looking for the highest yield. He sold about 2 months ago, as Canadian telecoms are in a brutal price war. At some point, it will be buyable, but not today. Cadence of dividend growth won't keep up to expectations. 

Transformed itself, market's recognizing that. Can confidently buy now. Pretty competitive, safe dividend yield, around 5%. Taken steps to pivot business away from riskier liabilities. Still trades at a discount.

US rescheduling hasn't happened. Off peak. Fits and starts when there's news. Entrenched opposition. US firms can't deduct expenses like a "legitimate" business, so can't turn a profit. Trader's dream, but not for long term.

Still likes it. Recent pullback on weak quarter reporting. Weakness represents good entry point. Headwinds are macro driven and endemic to the sector, lower income consumers are struggling. Macro headwinds will abate.

Likes it, adding. Keeps marching up and to the right. Executes game plan flawlessly. Tons of runway. 

Massive compounder of 13-16% over decades. Endemic pressures on medical loss ratio. Under DOJ scrutiny on market concentration. Looking for 11% growth. Weakness provides good entry point, massive demographic tailwinds.

Likes it here. Low organic growth rate historically. Recent demo of Navigator with embedded AI was impressive.  Capable serial acquirer. Bread and butter are enterprise content-management platforms: recurring revenues, high retention, mission critical for the Global 10,000. Undemanding multiple. Compounds earnings in mid-teens. Value and growth.

No qualms with buying. Kryptonite to unwind rally would be a reversal in price of oil. Oil is at a 52-week high, and this stock tends to trade in lockstep with it. Above-peer-quality assets, management, capital allocation, return to shareholders, and financial strength. If own, hold. If not, and you believe in the oil rally, buy on dip. Quality compounder.

Likes it. Pundits are calling it the most important stock in the world. Certainly contributes the most to the day-to-day variability in the S&P 500. Makes outsized moves, trading volumes, headlines. It's all about driving innovation in AI race. Undisputed leader. Must-own. Comfortable owning here.

Turned the corner, righted the ship, financially solid footing, sustainable dividend growth. As good a name as any in the mid-stream energy space. No quarrel owning. He owns TRP instead, with a more immediate catalyst of a company split.