Viewing Expert Eric Nuttall | StockChase
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Compiling comments that experts make about stocks while on public TV.

Viewing Expert

Eric Nuttall , Portfolio Manager

Sprott Assett Management


Date Signal Chart Symbol Company Opinion Price
2017-07-19 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Energy. It has been a tough, tough space to be in for the first 7 months of the year. It is record-setting because for the last 27 years, the energy index has never fallen for 7 sequential months in a row. He is optimistic that given the trends we are seeing in the US inventory drawdowns, the market is going to wake up to the fact that things have been improving since July of last year. Things are not as bad as you would think, and oil is heading higher in the next couple of months. Had thought that the timeframe for a change in thinking would be roughly September, but that has now been pushed back to about March 2018. There are 3 reasons for this. 1.) The biggest one is Libya and Nigeria both coming on bringing on almost a half a million barrels per day since the beginning of the year due to geopolitical situations. 2.) The dislocation between OPEC production cuts of 1.1 million barrels per day and OPEC export cuts which only fell to 400,000. That has subsequently improved. 3.) The ramp up in the US. The rig count since the beginning of the year is up almost 50%. Despite those 3 headwinds, inventories are still falling, and we are getting closer and closer to the end point. Expects oil to be over $50 in the next couple of months, $50-$60 in 2018-2019 when the bullish picture really starts to improve. He struggles to see natural gas being much above $3.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
ENERGY
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC on OIL
Owned:
_N/A
2017-07-19 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

How do you value a frac sand company? One way would be by calculating the cash flow stream over the 50ish years of reserve life. A quicker and easier way is to just look at, on a forward basis, the total value of the company (debt+ market cap divided by cash flow) and relate that back to historical multiples. The US names have typically traded from 7 to 8 times, and today they are trading 3 to 4 times.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
ENERGY
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC on OIL
Owned:
_N/A
2017-07-19 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ATH-T Athabaska Oil Sands Corp

If you want to be in Canada, and want a very small cap and uber leverage to the oil price, this is a pretty good pick. They did a royalty deal on their oil sands project, which was nothing short of genius. Payments don’t start until oil exceed something like $70-$75. Their total cash/cost break-evens are around $44. If you are a believer in $65-$70 oil, this stock could really, really work. If you are a believer that we are stuck in a $50-$60 range for the next year, there are better areas to be in.


Price:
$0.910
Subject:
ENERGY
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC on OIL
Owned:
Unknown
2017-07-19 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart BBI-X Blackbird Energy Inc

Too small and there is too much uncertainty around the prospectivity of their acreage as well as their competitive edge in completion technology, which he thinks they have a 10% interest in.


Price:
$0.365
Subject:
ENERGY
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC on OIL
Owned:
No
2017-07-19 PAST TOP PICK Must be logged in to use chart BIR-T Birchcliff Energy Ltd.

(A Top Pick July 29/16. Down 32.42%.) Management has always been underappreciated. They’ve done a really good job in building an asset base, and most importantly, paying down debt. Have a fairly good 5-year growth plan.


Price:
$6.370
Subject:
ENERGY
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC on OIL
Owned:
No
2017-07-19 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart BTE-T Baytex Energy Corp

There is absolutely no reason to own this right now. They’ve too much debt, and lack the ability to meaningfully pay it down. This was a result of their entry into the Eagle Ford. When comparing what they look like in terms of growth rate relative to valuation, in Canada the average intermediate oil company is expected to grow next year by about 15%, with an average multiple of 5.2X EV to future cash flow. This company is expected to grow by 1% and is trading at 5.7X.


Price:
$3.240
Subject:
ENERGY
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC on OIL
Owned:
No
2017-07-19 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart CFW-T Calfrac Well Services Ltd

This operates in Russia, Argentina, US and Canada. Fracing demand, in both Canada and the US, exceeds available supply. As pricing has been going up, this has been a beneficiary. What keeps him from investing in this is their balance sheet. They simply have too much debt, and it removes their strategic flexibility.


Price:
$3.150
Subject:
ENERGY
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC on OIL
Owned:
No
2017-07-19 PAST TOP PICK Must be logged in to use chart CJ-T Cardinal Energy Ltd

(A Top Pick July 29/16. Down 42.97%.) If you believe in $55 oil, $9 would be a very reasonable price for the stock. The company just did an acquisition which was not very well received. Selling at really cheap levels.


Price:
$4.910
Subject:
ENERGY
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC on OIL
Owned:
No
2017-07-19 SELL Must be logged in to use chart CPG-T Crescent Point Energy Corp

If you own this, he would Sell it. Get your tax loss and move on to another name which has more upside. Management has clearly struggled for a couple of years to regain investor confidence after several stock issuances, that came with mixed messaging. There is just too much history to see this one outperform.


Price:
$9.830
Subject:
ENERGY
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC on OIL
Owned:
No
2017-07-19 PAST TOP PICK Must be logged in to use chart DHX.B-T DHX Media

(A Top Pick July 29/16. Down 14.92%.) He liked this for the growth prospects of Teletubbies. It got pretty good traction in the UK, but the US was pretty disappointing and that’s when he sold the stock.


Price:
$5.920
Subject:
ENERGY
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC on OIL
Owned:
No
2017-07-19 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart FMSA-N Fairmount Santrol Holdings Inc.

Frac sand. Sees a very, very bullish underlying thesis, combined with a market that just isn’t seeing it, so stocks have sold off by 40%-70%. Of the frac sand companies, this one sold off the most because 1) they have more financial debt than the others and 2) there is a growing narrative that there will be growth in supply in Texas. As 75% of the cost of sand is transportation, there is a fear that supply growth in Texas will displace those deposits that are further away. He feels demand growth will exceed supply growth, so the market will remain tight. (See Top Picks.)


Price:
$3.870
Subject:
ENERGY
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC on OIL
Owned:
Yes
2017-07-19 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart OAS-N Oasis Petroleum Inc.

A fine company, but not one of his favourite US producers. It has a little more debt than the average company on consensus for next year, which would be higher than strip oil prices. Debt would be about 2.6X, while the average in the Permian is 1.2X. Well results have been improving steadily over the past couple of years, as they have been using more frac sand with better results. He has been warming up to the name.


Price:
$8.180
Subject:
ENERGY
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC on OIL
Owned:
No
2017-07-19 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart PD-T Precision Drilling

Like many service stocks, this has gone down materially. The pro is that the multiple is looking very attractive relative to what he thinks it could do in 2018. The con is that within services there is always a lot of subsectors, and the one with the least pricing power is, he thinks, drilling. Unlike pressure pumping, where equipment is in shortage, he doesn’t see a lot more upside in the day rates for drilling equipment.


Price:
$4.170
Subject:
ENERGY
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC on OIL
Owned:
No
2017-07-19 TOP PICK Must be logged in to use chart PE-N Parsley Energy

A Permian producer that has been doing a really good job of acquiring acreage, so they issued a ton of paper on to the market. They’ve grown 14% a quarter for the past couple of years. They now get to slow down on that and focus on delineating their acreage, and also going after some new benches. One that they think they have a command of is the Wolf Camp C, and these wells are super, super economic. Have about 70% of their production hedged next year. (Analysts’ price target is $40.)


Price:
$29.130
Subject:
ENERGY
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC on OIL
Owned:
Yes
2017-07-19 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart PONY-T Painted Pony Energy

Hasn’t held this for about 2 years. If bullish on Canadian gas, this is not a bad name. They’ve suffered from an equity issuance they did earlier this year, where they diluted the shareholder base by about 58%. That was to get more drilling depth acreage, more contiguous where they can draw longer laterals. Trading inexpensively relative to its inventory depth, but there is a lack of a lot of pipeline, and thinks it will continue to sell at a disconnect. There are better names in the US.


Price:
$4.720
Subject:
ENERGY
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC on OIL
Owned:
No
Showing 1 to 15 of 1,235 entries
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6 Comments

petersirie

December 17th 2012 at 6:46pm

Keep up the quality commentary please. I have really appreciated your insight.

boblewellyn@yah

March 16th 2013 at 7:50pm

There is a report that Petrobakken has started a gas injection program that has substantially increased their production and reserves. Stock closed at $9.50 on Friday, March 15, 2013, probably because of this report.

car2nz

April 10th 2014 at 3:12pm

When Eric says BUY...You should be SELLING ...When he says Sell...You should be BUYING. He is consistently WRONG! It's amazing!

BeauRegard

April 21st 2014 at 3:36pm

Not the sharpest knife in the drawer!

CH-Investments

April 26th 2014 at 10:04am

Not a fan of all his picks but some of them have great potential to generate a large profit. Have found a number of decent picks here and have done my own analysis which has made me operate at a decent profit.

3clicks

June 1st 2016 at 9:35am

I like Eric for his overall market commentaries. But gotta be cautious with his picks although BTE was a great advice.


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