Eric Nuttall

We're just weeks away from Trans Mountain opening and bringing Canadian oil to the BC coast.  This is very important. The difference between WTI oil and other benchmarks has been shrinking and will continue to. There's a lot of free cash flow among Canadian energy stocks, which won't rely on oil prices rising to remain strong. Cash flows and share buybacks will increase in the future. A weak loonie helps Canadian companies, and many of these will hit their debt targets this year. Nat gas: a warm winter means high supplies, but nat gas shares have been climbing on the buildout of the LNG pipeline which will start operating in June/July. Expect volatile gas pricing during the shoulder season, but look at 2024-6 for better days ahead.

A young company that's bought several companies and have accumulated a lot of heavy oil production. In their favour are the shrinking differential with WCS oil and lot of drilling inventory, but not in their favour is liquidity is tight, because a single energy fund owns so many shares and likely won't sell. It boasts a decent 15% cash flow. Are better peers to buy though he's tempted by this.

They've been aggressive acquiring inventory, perhaps overpaying for a few, but that's now in the past, and they won't be buying more in the near future. They have more than enough drilling inventory, so now they must prove to markets the merits of what they bought and that they've taken care of all their overhangs. He projects 19% forward free cash flow yield--compelling. It's been a frustrating stock, though. Past laggards should perform well this year.

They were the first in this sector to reach zero debt, and they heavily bought back shares, which helped raise the share price an outperform.

Checks the boxes: quality management, strong balance sheet and have decent inventories.

Has taken profits, because the CEO changed (whom he's met), but really it was due to valuation, which has risen with the share price. He sees less, but still decent upside in this. Likes their long-dates reserves, good free cash flow yield and benefits from the WCS differential. Foreign investors will return to Canadian energy stocks when they realize that shale producers have inventory challenges (weak quality and quantity). He targets $42-43. They will be debt free in Q2, he expects.

There's great demand for heavy oil due to OPEC's cuts and Mexico will export less. A phenomenal company. Excellent managers who own a lot of shares. It trades near fair value, so actually sell some shares. This will become a source of funds.

He's been patient with this. It's his second-largest holding. A misunderstood stock with investors thinking their oil was lousy because they bought a garbage company drilling lousy holes. Now, BTE is drilling top-quality wells. Also, they had a tax issue with Ottawa that has since been solved. Ongoing noise. Is confident with the new CEO who's bought a lot of shares. Trades at 2.5x cash flow, a discounted valuation like no other. Are buying back shares. Caveat: their #2 shareholder will eventually sell. He targets $10.

They recently bought Enerplus and remains a pure play on North Dakota. His favourite US name, though prefers Canadian oil. A good $14 free cash flow yield, but there are better opportunities.

He sold all shares after making huge profits. He sees 10% upside. Would buy again if shares fell a lot or if the oil price jumped.

Too much noise. A tax-loss candidate. Don't buy. The warm winter meant weak heating demand. Also, their assets are too scattered, lacking focus, while the dividend isn't attractive enough. Some flagship assets will decline. It's a value trap.

The only large-cap he likes and feels good heading into their quarter. Have improved and fixed their refinery problems. Should pay off their debt by Q2 or Q3, which will trigger share buybacks. Boasts a good 13% free cash flow yield. He sees 50% upside.

A great dividend payer, but there's a perception that they keep buying assets when they have enough. He projects 45% upside, so attractive, but that overhang remains.

Pays a 7.5% dividend, but badly lags its royalty peers. Are struggling to put up a large deal in the Permian. Trades at a cheap 8x PE and the dividend is safe. A lower beta energy name offering modest capital appreciation, and overall good.

Sees a 12% free cash flow yield, but isn't the confident about it. Likes them buying back shares and long-term companies will ramp up well drilling. Are debt free and doing all the right things. But one of their competitors (a doh-doh head) cut prices to win a job.