Viewing Expert Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA | StockChase
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Compiling comments that experts make about stocks while on public TV.

Viewing Expert

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA , Chief Investment Officer, Partner

ETF Capital Management Inc.

Address
5160 Yonge St. Suite 1860
Toronto, ON
M2N 6L9

Contact Info
Telephone: 888-383-9753
Fax: 888-383-9753
Website: http://www.etfcm.com


Date Signal Chart Symbol Company Opinion Price
2017-03-20 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

G20 Statement. Although tepid, he thinks they are supporting free trade, but probably under a lot of duress from the first real official global meeting with the Trump policy being pushed towards the world. The US is the biggest economy in the world, so what they want tends to typically happen. This is why markets were concerned about the anti-trade, and the original reason why futures market sold off aggressively the night of the election. It is concerning. However, it is not measured in weeks and days or the next tick on the chart; it is a long-term strategic policy. While he is very optimistic and bullish on the need for lower taxes overall, he is concerned about the lack of trade. However, we have seen slower trade globally. Looking at the Baltic Dry Index and the freight rates that are being charged, they have been in a slow decline for years, so it is not anything new. If the biggest economy, the US, is not participating, there will be less trade globally. The US has a surplus against Canada and are not really fighting us, but they’ve made strong statements on softwood lumber as an example. They have a deficit against Mexico, which is where they want to improve and bring stuff and make America great again, and America 1st. We are going to see lots of this for years to come.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-03-20 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Crude oil. He is not bearish in that we are going back to the $20s, but he wants to see what OPEC is going to do. There is some compliance, but it is Saudi Arabia that is more compliant than a lot of the other partners. There is some weakness in OPEC, which is what he expected. Oil shouldn’t be at $55, but should probably be closer to $45.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-03-20 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

BREXIT. The biggest thing from their perspective is, what does Scotland do. Scotland wants to hold a referendum in late 2018 or early 2019. Once they go through the two-year period of the negotiations to either stay or not stay, it is a mess. We haven’t felt one iota of economic impact in terms of trade, etc., and we probably won’t know for a year, or maybe 2, on how this plays out. It does speak to the fact that the UK and the EU doesn’t work, and eventually it is going to start coming apart. This is just the beginning.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-03-20 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Sectors with the best value right now? A couple of weeks ago, low volatility areas had been underperforming significantly. Markets have been strong since the Trump election, up 10%, 15%, 20% depending on where you look and what sectors. Low volatility sectors like utilities, consumer staples have underperformed. Those sectors, right now, screen as cheap because they are much more defensive. What typically happens with fund managers, is when they are positive on the outlook for the market, they are investing in more cyclicals; whether consumer, industrial or technology, companies that are going to get much more of a beta lift when the markets are doing well. When the markets are expected to correct, they can’t go to cash, most managers have to stay fully invested. They sell their consumer cyclical and they buy a consumer staple; they sell their industrial and buy a health care; sell their financial and buy a utility. This takes down their beta or their sensitivity to the downside. The low volume sectors are somewhat attractive right now compared to some of the more cyclical sectors.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-03-20 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Sectors you like and dislike? Real estate is interest rate sensitive, so not his favourite right now. He is underweight. What is really cheap? A couple of days ago, gold was cheap and he was nibbling in this sector. However, if you are talking about a strategy for the long-term, the next 2, 3, 5 years, financials in the US are still pretty cheap. When he is tactical, and moving money around pretty actively, he is looking out 3 months, maybe 6. He has no idea what is going to happen 4 or 5 years from now.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-03-20 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment: Long-Term Investing. This is on geopolitical and global macro, because a lot of global hedge funds macro views and look for themes in markets. This week, Canada has their budget. Global investors look at things like this and look for what is diverging and what is different, and is it good or bad compared to others. The US is cutting taxes, both corporate and personal, while Canada is raising taxes. Global money follows the flow of funds. Canada has net outflows on capital account, net outflows on current account, so we run trade deficits. There is less money coming into Canada so the global investors see that Canada is vulnerable and if they Short Canada as well as the currency, will the Bank of Canada raise rates? Investing in Canada has a lot to do with oil, and as oil goes, so goes the TSX.

If the budget is as bad as he thinks it is going to be, in terms of taxing capital and savings, you use inverse ETF’s. HBP 60 Inverse ETF (HIX-T) is an inverse play on the TSX 60. While Canada is somewhat cheap this year, it is only going to grow at 1.5% a year over the next 5 years, and only because they are borrowing money.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-03-20 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart FIE.A-T iShares Canadian Financial Monthly Income E.T.F.

The distribution on this is somewhat fixed. They are paying out north of a 6%-7% yield. If you look at what is in it, there is nothing that yields that much. Looking at all the banks and the other income generating securities this owns, the average is about 4%. This is paying out about 3% extra, which is capital gain you would’ve otherwise been getting from the share price. This is why you are not seeing a lot of upside in the price movement of this ETF.


Price:
$6.910
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-20 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart SHOP-T Shopify Inc.

Play this through options? The longest option he can see is October. Looking at the current Strike Price, it is around $90Cdn. He prefers Writing options as opposed to buying them. Looking at a $74 option, almost 20% below the market, you could Write a Put today and take in about $2 to $3, meaning you could make a couple percent, waiting to buy this cheaper. He loves these kinds of strategies.


Price:
$92.000
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-20 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZPH-T BMO US Put Write Hedged to CAD

ZPH-T or ZPW-T? He likes them both. When he thinks the CDN$ is going to get weaker, $.02, $.03, $.04, he wants ZPW. When he thinks the Cdn$ may get stronger, then he wants this one and wants to hedge the currency risk.


Price:
$19.980
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-20 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZPW-T BMO US Put Write ETF.

ZPH-T or ZPW-T? He likes them both. When he thinks the CDN$ is going to get weaker, $.02, $.03, $.04, he wants this one. When he thinks the Cdn$ may get stronger, then he wants ZPH and wants to hedge the currency risk.


Price:
$19.210
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-20 BUY Must be logged in to use chart ZWC-T BMO Canadian High Dividend Covered Call ETF

BMO high dividend or BMO Europe high dividend? He loves these and uses them in his fund. When you want to play defence, a high dividend concentration in stocks, tend to have lower downside risk. If you do this with a Covered Call, you get an enhancement on your yield. This one has close to a 6% yield, not a bad way to play Canada.


Price:
$20.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2017-03-20 BUY Must be logged in to use chart ZWE-T BMO Europe High Dividend Covered Call Hedged to CAD ET

BMO high dividend or BMO Europe high dividend? He loves these and uses them in his fund. When you want to play defence, a high dividend concentration in stocks, tend to have lower downside risk. If you do this with a Covered Call, you get an enhancement on your yield.


Price:
$21.590
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2017-03-20 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZWU-T BMO Covered Call Utilities ETF

What is the downside risk? This has 80% pipelines, telcos, utilities in Canada and 20% in the US. Generally utilities, telcos and pipelines are big dividend players. This is yielding about 7%, a very nice yield, but extremely interest rate sensitive. In 2013, when the US Federal Reserve was first talking about raising rates, we had the taper tantrum. This ETF went down pretty hard, but then came back up when the Fed backed off. In 2015, there was a big drop because of pipelines, when oil prices were coming down. You have to understand what you are holding.


Price:
$13.930
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-13 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Interest rates. The Fed will raise interest rates this week. Friday’s payroll was pretty decent, so there is no room for them not to go. Three rate hikes are pretty much priced in to the Fed Fund’s curve out to the end of the year. If we go into Europe and European elections, Netherlands actually starts this week, but we are really looking at the French election as the key one, April 23-May 7. If Marie Le Pen wins the election, that is going to be very destabilizing globally, far more than BREXIT, far more than the US election, and far more than the Italian election. We haven’t seen any impact from British breaking trade agreements with the EU, other than the weakening of the British pound. If France decides to leave the EU, and it goes back to the French franc, the whole European project begins to come apart. BREXIT was a warning shot across the bow, and this would be breaking it apart. If it is not this one, maybe it is the Italian election, sometime within the next year. If one of these goes extreme right wing it is going to start falling apart. That is what he is really worried about. The US economy, for all its ills, is still the strongest economy in the world. The restructuring that Trump is trying to put into place should be very, very good in the long run. There is lots of execution risk. We are now hearing Congress may not go for these trade deals, it has to be revenue neutral for tax cuts, etc., thus execution risk for the next couple of quarters We just have to be cautious on the markets.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
_N/A
2017-03-13 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Oil. Hedge funds may be a bit too long on oil. Tom McClellan points out that the “net short” position of the commercials, the opposite side of the speculators, are very net short; in fact, the most “net short” since oil was over $100, and they are the smart money. The speculators are on the other side of this trade. There is probably some more downside to go here. It could push oil down to the low $40s, as those positions unwind. $40-$60 is probably the range for the next couple of years.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
_N/A
2017-03-13 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Why would bank stocks lose value when interest rates are increased? This isn’t necessarily so. The general perception is that if interest rates go up, their revenues are going to rise which would make them more profitable. It really has to do with interest rate differentials. Banks tend to borrow Short and lend Long. It’s the shape of the yield curve that matters. Typically, the bulk of the lending is going to be in the 5-year range, the home equity lines of credit, the corporate mortgages, commercial mortgages. So it’s Short term rates versus Long-term rates, and if that curve is actually flattening, that means margins get compressed by the Banks. It depends on why interest rates are rising. Are they rising because the economy is taking off and inflation expectations are growing, in which case your yield curve steepening; or is it rising because the Fed is tightening and maybe too much, causing a perception that the economy is going to slow down, and therefore your yield curve is flattening, which would affect bank profits negatively.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
_N/A
2017-03-13 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Gold? He was buying gold mid December, and sold out at the beginning of January and February. Last week, for the 1st time, he started nibbling again. He’s been buying pullbacks as a general rule. Doesn’t think gold stocks are going to see the major resistance of last summer of $1350-$1400 any more, so he is inclined to range trade it. What is going to force gold up are bits and pieces of inflation, flight to safety, supply and demand. When it dips below $1200 you Buy, and up above $1300-$1350, you Sell.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-13 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Canadian dollar in 3-6 months? A big factor is what oil prices are going to do. What is the spread between interest rates between Canada and the US going to do? Those of the 2 biggest factors. If you look at positioning right now, it is very similar to the oil story. Speculators and the futures market, are long the Cdn$ because they believe oil is going to do well, so there is room here for the Cdn$ to sell off.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
_N/A
2017-03-13 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment: Market Drawdowns. What he calls “market noise” is a 5% correction or less. He looked at the peaks and the lowest lows in a 4-year business cycle since 1920. Looking at the drawdowns over the years, you can see the great depression, where 86% was the drawdown in US large caps. We’ve had several in the 50% range. However, the average surprisingly was 13.4%, and the average was only 10 months long. You tend to get a 5%-13% correction at least once a year, so it is pretty normal to get volatility in the markets. Drawing down a little further, he has a one-year version, which shows that we get more frequent declines. The interesting thing is, if we are down 13.4% from the previous peak, and we look out one year knowing that the bear decline is about 10 months, this is the time to start investing, to get aggressive once the markets are down. Your forward returns go up exponentially from a low point, compared to putting money to work at a high point. We are probably due for a downturn that is going to be about 24% at some point in the next year or 2, so he is playing defence because of that. Once we are down 13.4%, he’ll be thinking about buying.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
_N/A
2017-03-13 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart HHL-T Healthcare Leaders Income Fund

This invests in healthcare related securities, and believes the enhancement comes from an option strategy overlay. Like any other sector, this is fine when it is going up. This ETF tends to have a lot of volatility compared to some of the others. He doesn’t use this, so doesn’t know that much about it. It’s a fine product and he has no issues with it. It has a pretty significant yield, which tends to be what attracts a lot of people. Dividend yield of 8%+ right now.


Price:
$8.460
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
No
2017-03-13 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZDJ-T BMO DJ Industrial Ave Hedged to CAD ETF

A Cdn$ Dow Jones Unhedged ETF’s? This is one, but is not sure if other ETF providers in Canada have an unhedged Dow.


Price:
$35.880
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-13 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZLE-T BMO Low Volatility Emerging Markets Equity

This is a bunch of companies that are utilities, telcos, consumer staples; not that different than what you see in Canada, the US and Europe. Not cheap right now. The theory is that if we go into a bear market that is ugly for a while, these are safer stocks. They’ll go down less in a bad market, about half to three quarters of the rate of the broader indexes.


Price:
$21.070
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-13 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZPR-T BMO S&P/TSX Laddered Preferred

Will the rise in value of this ETF continue? The TD Bank and Bank of Montréal launched some structured products into the market that were linked to the payouts of the preferreds, and they were wildly successful. The demand for these preferreds went through the roof. He doesn’t think this is sustainable and he sold into the rally. He doesn’t like the value up here and is reducing his exposure.


Price:
$11.460
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Yes
2017-03-06 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  The Chinese growth story is over.  Chinese debt (gov’t, corporate, personal) from the Lehman moment was about 165% and now is pushing 265% debt to GDP.  The Chinese economy that was growing at 6-7% was 100% fueled by debt.  The economy is still growing, but just because they are slapping on the debt.  The demographics in the world are a big problem.  With protectionist policies under Trump, Chinese growth will have trouble keeping going.  Canada is only growing this year because of debt. 


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-03-06 BUY Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Treasuries Outlook:  The longer the maturity, the more negatively correlated it is, compared to equities.  The long bond is the best hedge.  The longer bonds are starting to find support whereas short term are starting to back up because of the fed rate hike scenario over this year.  We are getting a flattening of the yield curve, forecasting economic slowing.  If the market was forecasting inflation then the long bond would be selling off more.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-06 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Covered Call Protection against a recession?  ZWU-T is the safest one.  It yields about 7%.  In a recession that will give you the best protection.  ZWB-T would sell off more.  ZWC-T looks at the best dividend paying companies with covered calls.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-06 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Oil bulls think we will rebalance and energy will go back up.  He is a realist.  He just bought a plug-in hybrid car.  The first 30 km of the day it runs on electricity.  All the cars are going this way.  Demand for oil is going to come down in the developed world.  The TSX energy sector is priced at $60 oil.  He is very underweight.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-03-06 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  Long Term Investor Psychology.  Per unit of gain in a portfolio, the psychological value diminishes as you get more.  The more money you start to lose, the more you increase your unhappiness per unit of loss.  When we get complacent after a period of gains, this is our biggest point of risk. 


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-03-06 BUY on WEAKNESS Must be logged in to use chart SNC-T SNC-Lavalin Group Inc.

The US infrastructure spend is over the 8 years of the administration.  It will not move the needle all that much, but this company is one of the top ones to benefit from it.  We are back up at the levels when SNC-T had the problems mid-2014.  He would buy on dips, but does not see a big upside breakout here.


Price:
$55.450
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-06 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZPW-T BMO US Put Write ETF.

The best 100 companies with write-options 15% or so below market.  If markets decline rapidly, you don’t get a lot of support from it.  But if a decline is over 6 months you won’t see a lot of downside.


Price:
$19.280
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-02-27 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  We have this divergence because we have the liberal budget coming out.  Canada is out of cash.  The US is going to cut taxes and make it more competitive, making business less efficient here.  He thinks what is doable through congress and what Trump would like to do are two very different things.  March 15th we next hear from the Fed, March 10th we get another employment number.  If we get a good employment number it is 50/50 we get a rate hike.  We are due for some volatility soon.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-02-27 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

ETFs for an RESP at the start of University.  As you go into the years where you start to use the funds, you need to make sure the money you will take out each June is not subject to volatility.  Take next June’s withdrawal and put it into a money market ETF.  The rest can be a short term corporate bond ETF.  At some point before the end of the 4 years of school, we will probably have a recession.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-02-27 BUY Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

VIX Products.  There are a suite of single, inverse and leveraged ETFs with Horizon.  You are exposed to US dollars even though you buy them in Canadian dollars.  They are not good for long term trades, however.  HUV-T may be one to look at.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-02-27 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  Diverging tax policy in the US and Canada and how to take advantage of it.  Trump is addressing a joint session of congress tomorrow night.  Trump is going to talk about tax, including border tax.  They may not have agreement about tax reform until Q4 this year or even early 2018.  They want the tax reforms to be revenue neutral.  He is far more bullish in his outlook for the US than Canada.  The Canadian dollar could get weaker.  PSU-T is a high interest savings account, but you would also make money on the drop of the CAD$ relative to the US$.  For more aggressive types you could play it with small caps in the US and an inverse position in Canada.  There is volatility ahead with ambitious estimates for earnings growth possibly not happening.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-02-27 SELL Must be logged in to use chart BBD.B-T Bombardier Inc (B)

He does not know what to do here.  It is cheap from a long term perspective, but there has been a demonstration of poor execution for years.  You could take a shot at it at $1.50, but you should not be in it right now.


Price:
$2.360
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-02-27 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart REI.UN-T RioCan Real Estate Investment

If you want to be in the sector, use ZRE-T because sometimes a stock underperforms and sometimes it outperforms.  Recently the sector has been improving while REI.UN-T has not.  REITs are not cheap compared to other places to get a dividend.


Price:
$26.610
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-02-27 PARTIAL SELL Must be logged in to use chart ZPR-T BMO S&P/TSX Laddered Preferred

This is expensive now.  He has been selling into the strength since December.  If it gets back to those levels he would buy back in.


Price:
$11.345
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-02-27 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZWB-T BMO Covered Call Cdn Banks ETF

There is no real negative from the covered call strategy in a dropping market unless the stock goes down by large up & down movements.  However, it enhances your yield while you are waiting out the downturn.


Price:
$19.200
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-02-27 WAIT Must be logged in to use chart ZWU-T BMO Covered Call Utilities ETF

Utilities, pipelines and Telco’s.  80/20 Canadian to US.  It fell on anticipation of interest rate increases and oil dropping early in 2016.  You have to be careful because rising interest rates and falling oil prices are both negative for it.


Price:
$13.850
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2017-02-13 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  He is not sure we will see anything significant coming out of the Trump/ Trudeau meeting.  If you X-out all the commodities we export to the US, there is a pretty balanced trade between Canada and the US.  If they target specific industries those industries could get hurt.  He did not see softwood lumber on the agenda for today.  Trump’s idea of fair may be very different than Trudeau’s idea of fair.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-02-13 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Paying the S&P-500 – Pullback possible?  He thinks we will get some disappointment risk on execution.  The tax plan is probably not being implemented until 2018 now.  He thinks there will be a buying opportunity coming soon with a 5-10% pullback as there is one every year.  He would not be a buyer of the S&P-500 for the long term right now, but it is good for a trade.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-02-13 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Canadian version of ZPW-T?  He does not think there is one coming because there is not the depth to the Canadian market. 


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-02-13 SELL Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Gold.  He was buying XGD-T, ZGD-T when gold was around $1150 a month and a half back.  He has since sold out of XGD-T.  He trimmed GLD-N last week.  He does not know if Trump will be bullish for gold or not.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2017-02-13 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment. Using Stops. The value approach looks for a range of support and how you buy into it.  Anchoring is a behaviour where you want to try to get your money back.  That is the wrong way to think about it.  You should think about where you should put the money in a losing stock.  Get out of a position if it is not working.  You should have a plan on when to get out.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-02-13 BUY on WEAKNESS Must be logged in to use chart GOOGL-Q Alphabet Inc. (A)

He is concerned about valuation here.  But they are a great company.  In a market correction it could come down more than the market.  $740-750 would be a buying range.


Price:
$838.960
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-02-13 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart IWM-N iShares Russell 2000 ETF

Analysts are expecting about 80% earnings growth over the next year in the Russell 2000.  There is room for disappointment.  He initiated a short position on it as part of a long/short strategy.


Price:
$138.300
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2017-02-13 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart VAH-T Vanguard FTSE Developed Asia Pacific All Cap Index ETF

Look at the risk factors. US Trump execution is a big one. Brexit negotiations start next month. Also, there are German and French elections. This will be the beginning of the EU breaking up and will be bearish for a while and then bullish in the long run. He is out of Japan, however. 


Price:
$27.680
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-02-13 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart WMT-N Wal-Mart Stores Inc.

If Chinese imports are taxed, it will really hurt Walmart.  Don’t buy above the 52 week lows.


Price:
$67.770
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-02-13 BUY Must be logged in to use chart ZWE-T BMO Europe High Dividend Covered Call Hedged to CAD ET

European Market. He plays it with ZWE-T. It has high dividends and a covered call strategy with a currency hedge.  6-7% yield.  For the next 5 years that would be pretty good for Europe.  It is the more conservative way to go.


Price:
$21.310
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-02-06 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  Trump’s immigration policy is not going that well.  He says he wants the US$ weaker.  Border taxes will almost certainly push the dollar higher.  There are conflicting policies.  At some point the market wakes up and realizes there will be execution problems.  The US will be VERY well supplied with oil for the next 5 years with Keystone coming on.  This will put downward pressure on oil prices.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-02-06 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Bear Markets.  Inverse ETFs will go up 1:1 when markets to down.  Don’t use leveraged ETFs.  Utilities are best correlated to interest rates.  Gold can rally in a bear market.  You have to look at bonds because they rally in a bear market.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-02-06 BUY on WEAKNESS Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Cyber Security.  There are two ETFs.  HACK-N is one.  You get access to all the companies playing in the space.  It has been trending since day one.  He would buy on dips as the ETF has been climbing since its inception.  Risks right here are a little high, however.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2017-02-06 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  Measuring Risk and Reward.  Within 20 years the vast majority of money in the world will be run by computers.  The traditional portfolio manager will be gone.  E.g. SU-T, 25% of the sector, a big player.  Going back 10 years it has made nobody any money for 10 years.  It is up less than the dividend.  Buy it when it is cheap relative to the benchmark and the markets.  Figure out how much you need in your portfolio.  The price of oil is the most important factor in the stock price.  Looking at the 5 year chart it is incredibly overvalued.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-02-06 SELL Must be logged in to use chart AAPL-Q Apple

He does not like where it is.  We are against all time highs.  It could break out, but there is definitely resistance here.  You could write a put option and get paid about 5% yield over the next year.  If it drops 20% then you will have to buy it and that is fine.  This is how he would play AAPL-Q.  If the option expires, then just do it again.


Price:
$130.290
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2017-02-06 SELL Must be logged in to use chart CLF-T iShares 1-5 yr Government Bond ETF

He prefers corporate bonds because they yield more than government bonds.  Prices will probably continue to fall.  You are getting a bigger yield payment than the yield to maturity on the bonds themselves.  CBO-T would be the replacement for this ETF.


Price:
$18.550
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-02-06 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZWB-T BMO Covered Call Cdn Banks ETF

The MER is in the 40-50 basis point range.  The enhanced yield is created with an option writing overlay.  They write one standard deviation out of the money.  The options can enhance yield 1.5 percentage points over time.


Price:
$18.940
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-01-30 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  The US revenue growth is about 4% year over year and if you factor in 2% inflation, then back out energy and financials, you get negative growth.  The forecast is for double digit earnings growth going forward and he does not see that happening.  He is concerned about some of the policies that Trump promised.  Closing the borders is negative for growth.  Entitlement reform is Medicare.  It is estimated to cost $50 Trillion out to 2050.  If Trump tacks on these border tariffs, there is still potential for the US$ to strengthen. 


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-01-30 BUY Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

ETFs for smaller amounts of cash to invest.  You can buy a handful of them and buy a much diversified global portfolio.  You need to understand risk management. 


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
AGRICULTURE, DIVIDEND & FIXED INCOME
Bias:
BEAR
Owned:
_N/A
2017-01-30 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  Smart Factor ETFs.  Reducing portfolio risk.  The trend between actively managed mutual funds compared to what capital is going into ETFs show money is moving that way.  You can do asset allocation with ETFs and that is by far the most important consideration.  The bigger companies dominate the NASDAQ.  Three sectors make up half the index.  It is very concentrated and heavily weighted into a few stocks.  All smart factor ETFs beat the index.  They all have different volatilities.  You should use all of the indexing strategies in your portfolio. 


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
AGRICULTURE, DIVIDEND & FIXED INCOME
Bias:
BEAR
Owned:
_N/A
2017-01-30 HOLD Must be logged in to use chart FDN-N First Trust Dow Jones Internet Index Fund

Internet ETF.  Analysts do not make consensus targets for ETFs.  The average PE is no different from the overall NASDAQ.  The trend is healthy.  It is not cheap.


Price:
$85.950
Subject:
AGRICULTURE, DIVIDEND & FIXED INCOME
Bias:
BEAR
Owned:
Unknown
Showing 1 to 60 of 2,191 entries
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1 Comment

raziel

April 3rd 2015 at 8:48am

My preferrers have come down substantially as a result of lowered bank rates, I believe. Shouldn't an instrument with a fixed rate go UP when bank rates are lowered?


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