Viewing Expert Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA | StockChase
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Compiling comments that experts make about stocks while on public TV.

Viewing Expert

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA , Chief Investment Officer, Partner

ETF Capital Management Inc.

Address
5160 Yonge St. Suite 1860
Toronto, ON
M2N 6L9

Contact Info
Telephone: 888-383-9753
Fax: 888-383-9753
Website: http://www.etfcm.com


Date Signal Chart Symbol Company Opinion Price
2017-01-16 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  Brexit news is coming tomorrow from Britain.  Brexit is part of the shift to the right and it shows that people don’t want globalization any longer.  You have to understand what it means for growth and volatility.  It is a headwind.  It will be good for British exports, but if you invest in the UK, you better buy the hedged version of the ETF.  Trump is protectionist.  We are just beginning to see what this means on a trade basis.  He thinks it will allow not more than 2% growth in the US GDP.  The banks have had a big run up and he sees a sell-the-news happening soon.  There have been some misses and we have to watch for those.  Inauguration of Trump happens this week and you have to look at seasonally patters for the last 60 years, post inauguration day.  You don’t have much growth on average for the rest of the year.  A lot of news is priced into the market.  You have to play defense.  A post inauguration correction is expected.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-01-16 BUY Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  Smart Beta ETFs.  Sustainable yield.  High dividend stocks can’t usually sustain the high dividends.  Sphere’s strategy aims to offer sustainable dividends.  You have to eliminate stocks from an ETF that can’t sustain high dividends.  They have a screen for these companies.  You lose a little yield, but greatly reduce volatility.  SHC-T is a Canadian sustainable high yield ETF.  They have US, Europe, Asian etc as well.  It is not always about the MERs. 


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-01-16 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart HNU-T HBP NYMEX Nat'l Gas Bull+

Leveraged ETFs are toxic for long term holding.  The more volatile the underlying asset its, the more toxic it is.  It is great for short term trading.  You don’t go out and sit on this because the price of Nat Gas will eventually go up.  ZJN-T is a good one to sit on for Nat Gas exposure.  You can play it for a long period of time.


Price:
$11.260
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-01-16 HOLD Must be logged in to use chart SJ-T Stella-Jones Inc.

They had a disappointing forecast.  In the past year it sold off every time it got above $45.  At best it is a hold.


Price:
$39.500
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-01-16 SELL ON STRENGTH Must be logged in to use chart SLW-T Silver Wheaton

Silver Technicals: It is a speculation on money, inflation and so on.  Gold broke $1200 support recently, so we will see some resistance at $1250 soon.  He is out of all his gold shares.  He is inclined to sell into this pop a little bit.  He would then buy the dips after that.


Price:
$26.960
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-01-16 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart ZPW-T BMO US Put Write ETF.

A put write strategy on a 100 of the best US companies across all economic sectors.  They have a pretty sustainable payout, but it is paid in US$.  It is not hedged.  They have filed a prospective on a hedged ETF that is similar.


Price:
$19.620
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-01-16 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZWA-T BMO Dow Jones Indus. Avg. Hedge ETF

DOW mature blue chip companies with a covered call overlay.  ZPW-T or a hedged version, which is even better, would be better going forward.


Price:
$20.150
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-01-16 BUY on WEAKNESS Must be logged in to use chart ZWB-T BMO Covered Call Cdn Banks ETF

It has a covered call overlay.  A lot of good news is priced into the banks so he would not be chasing this one, but be a dup-buyer in the Canadian banks.


Price:
$18.710
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2017-01-09 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  He is calling for a correction after the Trump rally.  Statistically, most times from the beginning of the year until some point later, you can buy the market cheaper than when the year first started (80% of the time).  US Earnings season gets ticking this Friday.  There has been a huge move in some of the banks since the election, looking at higher interest rates and deregulation.  The reality may be much different than the market is looking for.  Net interest margins will not be meaningfully impacted yet.  A year from now we will see the impact of interest rate increases.  Hopefully now banks will have freer use of their capital.  Are autos looking at trade wars – it has not come out except in the twittisphere.  Oil poked above $50 and shale producer rig count rose in the US.  Over the next 6 months it will go up to $56 and then will remain constant for 4 or 5 years.  It remains questionable whether OPEC can execute on their deal.  We have not seen the impact of Brexit and won’t for a year or two.  There will be a hard line on both sides as to what that looks like. 


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-01-09 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  How to play the market if you are risk adverse in 2017.  Are Trump policies coming in or not?  Over the last 10 years the marginal tax rate for corporations has come down from 50% in 1955 to 35% recently.  Analysts expect 22% earnings growth from the S&P.  The PE of the S&P is 21 times.  It is a 23% world GDP economy.  The banks have been the big leader since the election.  It’s going to take a lot of interest rate hike to get the banks back to where they should be with interest rate spreads.  There is a new president, first term, new party.  The average pattern has half a percent gain.  We have already exceeded that.  The inauguration is pretty much the high point for the year.  Get into options late in the market cycle. 


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-01-09 BUY Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Income over two to three years.  There is a new ETF from BMO that is a high dividend ZWH-T (US) and ZWE-T (Europe) and also a Canadian one.  You will get 6-7% a year and he loves these in a defensive market.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-01-09 BUY Must be logged in to use chart GILD-Q Gilead Sciences Inc.

It has been in decline for a number of years but looks like it is forming a base.  (Analysts’ Target: $95).  It looks like it is fairly attractive, but he would sell after it got to $90.  If it keeps making lower lows and lower highs then you have to question it.


Price:
$75.840
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-01-09 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ICE-N Intercontinentalexchange Inc.

Analysts are looking at 5% revenue growth and more in earnings but he questions that.  The chart looks good with higher highs and lower lows.  (Analysts’ Target: $65).


Price:
$57.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-01-09 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart MG-T Magna Int'l. (A)

A year and a half of price weakness and then post-election it has done well along with some other car companies.  You are smack dab in the middle of the trading range.  He does not see a rosy outlook here and sees more downside risk than upside.


Price:
$58.610
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-01-09 SPECULATIVE BUY Must be logged in to use chart NXPI-Q NXP Semiconductors

There is a $110 cash offer.  The $98 stock price probably correctly reflects the risks.  He does not have more to add.  When there is an M&A deal, the charts don’t matter at all.


Price:
$98.390
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-01-09 BUY Must be logged in to use chart ZPW-T BMO US Put Write ETF.

It is not CAD$ hedged.  BMO has filed perspective on a bunch of new ETFs and there should be one available in the next month that is the CAD$ hedged version of this.  They net about 10% premium on the puts.  About 3% is lost due to puts being exercised so you get an extra 7% over the performance of the stocks within the ETF.  It is not risky and is exposure to the US market. (Your exposure should net a long position, if it ever got executed).


Price:
$19.620
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2016-11-28 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

OPEC. There’s going to be a deal, but the deal is going to be to freeze production, not cut production. The history of OPEC is that they always cheat, and there is basically no chance in his mind, that even if they agree to a ceiling at 33 million barrels, that they adhere to it. It is all about demand, so is global demand in a slowing world going to increase? OECD has said that the world is going to grow a little bit better because we are no longer austerity driven, but we are driven by spending. The GDP formula is GDP=C+1+G(X-M). When the government borrows and spends like they expect to on infrastructure, mathematically GDP is going to go up, but here’s the thing with the consumer (C). His average client is probably around 60 years old, and their financial plan indicates their money is going to last 30 to 35 years. It doesn’t matter how low interest rates get or how much the government is going to spend, aggregate demand (G) is not going up, as people are living longer. This demographic headwind that we are facing is going to be really toxic for growth for the next decade and decades to come. Increasing government spending is only going to add on to the debt. That is another massive headwind. We have some very difficult economic challenges going forward.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
_N/A
2016-11-28 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Oil. An OPEC Expectations chart shows that 12 months’ forward oil prices is really going to struggle to get through $50. As soon as we get up to $50 you are going to see a lot of Forward Selling next year, which ramps up supply.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
_N/A
2016-11-28 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Cdn Banks. Right now, the banks have a lot of tailwinds because of the perception that interest rates are going up, but he believes that the Fed will raise rates in December and the Bank of Canada is on hold. The next move after that will be a rate cut by both the bank of Canada and the Fed, not a rate increase.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2016-11-28 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

US ETF’s for an RRSP portfolio? He holds the BMO US Put Write (ZPW-T), where they are writing on great companies and writing Puts 15%-20% below the market, and are harvesting about a 7%+ yield per year. On the other side of that, he owns the BMO Covered Call Utilities (ZWH-T) which looks at some of the best quality dividend payers in the US, and writes a covered call strategy on half that, generating around 6%. The combination of those 2 exposures to the US market gives him a yield of 6.5%, and a risk of about 30% of the S&P 500. He thinks that is the absolute best way to get exposure today.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Yes
2016-11-28 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

REITs, utilities and preferred shares for a 5% return for a Buy and Hold investor? From time to time, interest rate sensitive sectors get hurt. He likes BMO Equal Weight REITs Index Cdn (ZRE-T), BMO Covered Call Utilities (ZWU-T) which is yielding over 7%. He has a half position in each one, and has recently been adding to this.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Yes
2016-11-28 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Dividend ETF’s? Like all the factors in the smart Beta products, dividends are the most widely known for the average investor, and maybe 2nd to value as a way to play the markets. Sometimes dividend stocks do really, really well, and sometimes they don’t. Right now, if you look at a lot of the dividend indexes, they’ve had decent performance. He doesn’t like the relative value today, and would be underweight dividend stocks at the moment.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2016-11-28 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

ETF for US regional banks in Canadian funds? The BMO Equal Weight US Banks Hedged to Cdn (ZUB-T) plays a lot of the regionals, but some of the larger ones as well. If you want the pure Regional ETF, SPDR S&P Regional Banking (KRE-N) has many of the ones that the BMO has, but doesn’t have a lot of the big ones.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2016-11-28 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

How maximum diversification works. This process gathers a basket of stocks that helps you to diversify as much as can be done, and still get exposure to the index. He focuses on correlation. He starts with the same universe as the Market Cap Benchmark, but what the formula looks most closely at is correlations. He will assemble a portfolio that uses the securities outside of the starting universe, that have the lowest possible correlation to each other. When you are able to assemble a portfolio in that way, it will be the most diversified portfolio that you can create of a given universe. One of the goals is to generate a higher return, but also deliberate with less volatility. The MER on this is 60 basis points, but you’re getting a much better ride. Not only is this less volatile, but it is better performing than the market cap benchmark over a full market cycle by a meaningful amount. He is equally exposed to all of the risk factors in the market. (By Faizan Dhanani, Managing Dir. for TOBAM, Mackenzie Investments.)


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2016-11-28 PARTIAL BUY Must be logged in to use chart AQN-T Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp

He loves the alternative energy space. Over time we are going to have less carbon, and we are not going back to coal fired plants and dirty energy. The world is aiming to get cleaner. A company like this, that focuses on renewables, should do very well in the very long run. Looking at earnings and the multiple, it is a little bit expensive. At the current price, it looks very attractive. He would nibble away at this.


Price:
$10.780
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2016-11-28 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart CPD-T iShares S&P/TSX Preferred ETF

If interest rates are going to go up (he doesn’t think that is going to happen in a big way), then reset preferreds make a lot of sense. If interest rates are going to go down, reset preferreds don’t. The BMO S&P/TSX Laddered Preferred (ZPR-T) has more reset preferreds in it, while this one is a combination of traditional type preferreds and the resets. Either one is fine right now, but he has been a net seller of these in recent weeks. If this one dips back to about $12.50, he is going to start buying again. He would be a seller above $13.


Price:
$12.800
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2016-11-28 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart TECK.B-T Teck Resources Ltd. (B)

This is a very popular stock in Canada. For several years, he has said avoid, avoid, avoid. China is slowing copper. Now the stock has gone absolutely insane. It’s a momentum play right now, and it terrifies him to no end to try and buy this. He would avoid. If you are going to be in it, you must use really tight stops. This is a momentum play behind the “infrastructure spend”, and he is just not sure it is going to materialize.


Price:
$34.660
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
No
2016-11-21 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  Ottawa wants an end to coal for 2030.  If he was the CEO of a utility, then he would probably view Trump’s bringing back coal as a temporary thing in that kind of timeframe.  The world is moving away from coal and the coal jobs are not coming back.  OPEC is going to talk up a cutting back on production of oil, but they have always cheated.  If OPEC cuts back then the US and Canada will just boost theirs.  He thinks there might be a freeze on production levels.  Oil stocks on the TSX are priced for $60-$65 oil.  If oil goes up to $60, these stocks could go a little higher than they are today, but they are basically discounting this level.  You could be a buyer on dips, but don’t chase it.  Oil is lower for longer.  Fixing roads and bridges is not going impact any US infrastructure ETFs as they are pipelines and utility stocks.  There are no companies in these ETFs that would benefit.  The exposure is zero to Trump’s infrastructure spending.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2016-11-21 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  Momentum and value in smart beta ETFs.  Vanguard has a couple of smart strategies.  They think smart indexing is an active strategy.  They debate Larry in disagreeing it is active in that it is a set of rules.  The Momentum strategy is benefiting from a behavioral bias in the market place where investors are slow to react.  The Liquidity strategy focuses on companies that are smaller and don’t trade as much, aren’t in the news as much and so may be undervalued.  Investors overpay for liquidity in the market place.  Less liquid names, also have more risk.  A quarter of Vanguards assets under management are actively managed.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2016-11-21 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart BAM.A-T Brookfield Asset Management (A)

It would be important for us to get above the highs of the last few years.  It is probably capped for now and the risk is that we come back to support at the lows of the last couple of years.  He thinks there is a more material correction coming over the next year.


Price:
$45.070
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2016-11-21 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart FIE-T iShares Cdn Financial Monthly Income ETF

Good quality banks and insurance companies.  It is not a good time to step in at this time.  It is at all time highs.  Its bonds are short term corporate bonds so you don’t have interest rate risk.  The risks are far too high with these companies right now, however.  He does not think Trump will cause interest rates to go up the way analysts predict.


Price:
$7.000
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2016-11-21 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart HAZ-T Horizons Global Dividend ETF

An active strategy to own the best paying global dividend stocks.  Dividends are just one factor.  Sometimes they work well and not others.  He thinks dividends will underperform for the next 6 months as we consider what Trump’s spending and inflation will look like.


Price:
$18.790
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2016-11-21 HOLD Must be logged in to use chart TOY-T Spin Master Corp

It has been a great growth story.  It is hard to value a company when it is in this strong a growth trend.  You have to expect more volatility if you want to stay with the trend.  If it starts to trade below the 100 day average then it may not continue to go higher.  (Analysts’ Target $38)


Price:
$37.000
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2016-11-21 BUY Must be logged in to use chart ZPW-T BMO US Put Write ETF.

He loves this strategy as a low risk way to get exposure to the market.    Write a put way below the market and take in the premium.  15-20% below market.  It is diversified.  It takes in about a 10% yield.  They don’t want to own the stocks so if they end up buying them they sell and that costs 3%, making it a 7% return.  You get that yield with half the risk of the market.  Since recession is a real risk, this is a great way to hold the US market.


Price:
$19.480
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2016-11-14 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  He has said many times over the months that he thought Trump would win.  His expectation was that the markets would sell off.  He was right for about two hours.  The reality is that congress is not going to let Trump spend and cut taxes like that.  Larry does not see this playing well on Wall Street.  You have this extreme movement to the right and he sees this as a head wind.  Once infrastructure has been upgraded, the economic impact is gone.  All yields going up is not good for the economy.  It won’t give net interest margins for banks.  Iran is going to keep pumping and it will not come back, but fracking will come back and the supply story is not going to back off.  Oil should back off to below $40.  The oil stocks are not selling off nearly as much so the energy sector needs to sell off 10% still.  There is too much optimism in the energy stocks.  OPEC probably won’t be able to do anything at the end of the month.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2016-11-14 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  Smart Beta ETFs.  First asset’s approach is to work with morning start.  They have been working on quantitative modeling with dates going back to the 1980s.  They created a screen.  They look for companies that are trading below net asset value and have growth potential.  They screen for companies with price momentum as well as earnings momentum while having value.  These two strategies since inception have extracted some of the better companies.  Over 2 years the two strategies together outperform 90% of the time and 100% of the time over 4 years.  VRX-T was in the momentum portion and was rebalanced on a quarterly basis and got trimmed back.  You could equal weight the strategies.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2016-11-14 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart EMA-T Emera Inc

It has come back a little bit.  The down side risk is about $36 according to a 5 year chart.  He thinks the economy will slow rather than strengthening on the new policies from Trump.  He is nibbling away on ZWU-T, which holds EMA-T.  EMA-T could easily fall to $36, however.


Price:
$44.300
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2016-11-14 BUY on WEAKNESS Must be logged in to use chart H-T Hydro One

He does not look at the balance sheet.  ETFs are 99% of what he does.  There is not enough evidence in the chart to say where the floor might be.  Around the issue price there should be some natural support ($20.50).  He has been nibbling away at interest sensitives here.  He is buying REITs.


Price:
$22.650
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2016-11-14 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart HUV-T HBP S&P500 VIX Short Term VIX ETF

It seems not to track the VIX.  It does not track the VIX, but holds the VIX futures contracts 2 months out.  Every month you lose 5 to 10% due to the leverage and rolling over futures contracts.  You can’t sit with these for a long period of time.  Hold for a couple of days max for an event that might be asymmetrical. 


Price:
$11.150
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2016-11-14 BUY Must be logged in to use chart ZPW-T BMO US Put Write ETF.

It looks at all great companies with good financials, but writes options on them 15-20% below market, constantly taking in option premiums and occasionally taking in the stock.  They then sell the stock.  It pays a yield of a little over 7%.  It does well when markets are flat or sideways.  It is a great diversifier in these uncertain times.  He is the biggest holder in his funds.  They are taking in a little over 10% in yield with puts offset by a little over 3% of capital loss for puts that are exercised.  He does not think it will change too much from that range.


Price:
$19.680
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2016-11-14 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZWH-T BMO US High Dividend Covered Call ETF

He does not like it as much with the US$ below $.74.  He holds it with ZPW-T.  He can hedge the US$ exposure which individual investors can’t easily do.  The currency conversion rate is crucial to this trade.


Price:
$20.070
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2016-11-07 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  It was clear when the FBI update came out that Markets really want to see a Hillary victory.  The best case in his view is that republicans control all three parts of the house.  Right now the senate is a toss-up according to polls.  He thinks CEOs would wait 6 months before making any capital investments if Trump wins as they see how it goes.  The rest of the world outside the US is questionable on growth.  There is an asymmetric risk like in Brexit because the market is not priced for the potential that Trump wins.  Polls seem to hit more people with home phones and that live in cities.  Markets are priced for a Hillary win and not a Trump win or a house sweep, but it is that close.  You might think of using a volatility based ETF as a hedge in the short term.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2016-11-07 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  Smart ETFs - Multi-factor products.  iShares has a forecast on where things are going.  They see $1 Trillion US$ by 2020 and 2.5 by 2025 in these products.   There are two factors suggesting these forecasts:  They has the potential to disrupt active management; and the have the potential to address the challenges investors are facing in today’s market.  What is new about mult- factor investing is the technology. It is based on long term proven drivers of return.  Their approach of combining factors means you don’t have to forecast which is the winning factor of the future.  Value, size, quality and momentum are the four factors they combine into one investment solution.  If you look at F-class (compensation component of cost is removed) mutual funds they have a cost of just below 1%.  iShares multi-factor ETFs are 45 basis points.  It is more affordable.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2016-11-07 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ARE-T Aecon Group Inc

It is close to a 52 week low and you have to think there is some support there.  Nibble close to that level if you like the company.  He does not follow it.


Price:
$13.600
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2016-11-07 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart FXB-N CurrencySh British Pound

Brexit has not begun and the negotiations have not begun.  It will be a year after that when we have any clarity on what the deal will be.  The British pound will not snap back any time before that.


Price:
$121.110
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2016-11-07 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart HNU-T HBP NYMEX Nat'l Gas Bull+

You can’t hold it for long periods of time.  Nat Gas is the most volatile commodity we have.  The way they rebalance it could be toxic.  You would lose 20-25% in a year in a sideways market.  You have to be making a short term call of maybe a week or two.  The problem is the leveraged 2:1 aspect of it and nightly rebalancing.  ZJN-T would be a better one to invest in Nat Gas for a longer term.


Price:
$9.030
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2016-11-07 WATCH Must be logged in to use chart IBB-Q iShares Nasdaq BioTech ETF

Biotech ETF.  Institutions use this to trade.  At Friday’s close we got closer to the 52 week lows.  Hillary came out with a tweet about coming after the biotechs.  He likes this long term for growth.  He would be cautious here.  No more than a third of a position.  It could go 10 or 15% lower if she wins.


Price:
$261.170
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2016-11-07 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZGI-T BMO Global Infrastructure ETF

[Global Infrastructure ETF for 10-15 year hold.]  A lot of these ETFs have pipelines, real estate and telecom.  You won’t get a lot of investment in telecom.  There is not a perfect ETF to just play the best infrastructure.  10-15 years does not work for him


Price:
$34.410
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2016-10-31 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  There is a non-decision from OPEC.  He does not think anyone should be surprised.  It helps with position squaring.  TSX stocks are pricing in $65 oil by the end of the year.  Don’t chase the strength in the energy sector.  The US Election is the laughing stock of the world.  It is tragic that the strongest economy in the world is going through this embarrassment.  They are still bringing up the Email issue so there must be new information.  Our mini budget tomorrow:  Ripping up roads and fixing infrastructure is not the best spending we can do.  It is not going to get the economic output they expect.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2016-10-31 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Adjusted Profit and Adjusted Losses.  The earnings you report to internal revenue service then companies have some things backed out that are onetime items and are not regular operations.  There are so many things included in this that earnings are always 10% higher than GAAP earnings.  He prefers to look at valuating stocks with GAAP earnings. 


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2016-10-31 BUY Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Gold.  ZGD-T is the equally weighted gold. XGD-T also.  ZJG-T is juniors.  There are many different ways to play it.  He has 5% exposure to gold right now.  He thinks gold will bounce back to $1300 on market uncertainty.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2016-10-31 BUY Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  Fundamental Indexing.  Market Cap indexes are the traditional way to do indexes and fundamental indexing looks at cash flow, profitability, dividend sustainability and so on.  It is a rules based approach that focuses on the strength of the underlying companies.  Market weight is a popularity contest.  E.g. Nortel.  It went from 3% to 30% of the TSX index.  It represents a key flaw of market weight investing.  You would have ridden it all the way back down.  VRX-T did something similar being 9% of the TSX 60 at its height.  Returns are better in fundamental indexing rather than market cap indexing.  It will not win over every part of the cycle but long term it wins.  Larry’s guest runs his screen once per year.  Running it more often incurs trading costs and so on.  Research shows you only run it once a year.  These funds have a few basis points more MER and are worth it.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2016-10-31 SPECULATIVE BUY Must be logged in to use chart AGI-T Alamos Gold Inc

Junior gold company.  It is a speculative play.  If you are bullish on gold then it could be a fine company to hold.  It made a major support base after a major run.  If Gold went back to $1100 then that is the down side risk to a stock like this.  He can’t speak to the quality of the company.


Price:
$10.710
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2016-10-31 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart BDCL-N UBS ETRACS 2xLvg Lng WF Busn Dev Co ETN

He has never heard of it before.  It is a basket of financing companies that get into the equity space.  It is two times leveraged. It is not good for long term holds.  If you are right you can make a lot of money.  It is an exchanged traded note.  It means it is a securities issue and you should make sure you have no concerns with the issuer. 


Price:
$16.920
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2016-10-31 BUY Must be logged in to use chart ZDH-T BMO International Dividend Hedged to CAD ETF

Comment on an ETF Basket of ZWE-T, ZDH-T and ZWH-T.  ZWE-T is high dividend Euro stocks with a covered call.  A defensive way to play Europe.  ZDH-T is hedged.  ZWH-T is international High Dividend US, non-hedged.  He likes them all and owns them in his funds.


Price:
$20.160
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2016-10-31 BUY Must be logged in to use chart ZWE-T BMO Europe High Dividend Covered Call Hedged to CAD ET

Comment on an ETF Basket of ZWE-T, ZDH-T and ZWH-T.  ZWE-T is high dividend Euro stocks with a covered call.  A defensive way to play Europe.  ZDH-T is hedged.  ZWH-T is international High Dividend US, non-hedged.  He likes them all and owns them in his funds.


Price:
$19.820
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2016-10-31 BUY Must be logged in to use chart ZWH-T BMO US High Dividend Covered Call ETF

Comment on an ETF Basket of ZWE-T, ZDH-T and ZWH-T.  ZWE-T is high dividend Euro stocks with a covered call.  A defensive way to play Europe.  ZDH-T is hedged.  ZWH-T is international High Dividend US, non-hedged.  He likes them all and owns them in his funds.


Price:
$19.490
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2016-10-24 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  40% of the Dow companies are reporting this week.  The numbers so far have been good.  We have been adjusting to the new earnings reporting standards.  Adjusted earnings are rising a bit now, but the old GAAP earnings are up 15.37%.  If you consider the market multiple we are trading at 23 times earnings.    He does not see the earnings growth in Europe that analysts are forecasting.  He does not agree with a lot of the adjustments being made currently.  The uncertainty around the EU and Brexit will prevent the signing of current trade deals being anticipated.  The Canadian economy is struggling.  We are stressed here.  Canada has one of the best debt to GPS ratios in the world, but you can’t do that.  You have to add in the provincial part.  That puts us at 95% and up there with all the other countries.  He does not think there is room for more stimuli in Canada. 


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2016-10-24 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Bond ETFs.  As we all age and face retirement, the rule of thumb has always been more safe money and fixed income.  After tax and inflation you have negative real returns for the next 30 years in almost every country in the world.  Bonds are a losing bet.  You will be worse off every year.  A 60% bond portfolio does not make sense anymore and is a big challenge going forward. 


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2016-10-24 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

ETF to Short Canadian Real Estate?  You would have to short XRE-T or another real estate ETF and you would have to do it in an unregistered account.  REK-N in the US is an inverse of the real estate market in the US.  Hedge funds short a real estate company as a proxy into the real estate market when they want to short that market.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
Showing 1 to 60 of 2,117 entries
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1 Comment

raziel

April 3rd 2015 at 8:48am

My preferrers have come down substantially as a result of lowered bank rates, I believe. Shouldn't an instrument with a fixed rate go UP when bank rates are lowered?


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