Viewing Expert Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA | StockChase
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Compiling comments that experts make about stocks while on public TV.

Viewing Expert

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA , Chief Investment Officer, Partner

ETF Capital Management Inc.

Address
5160 Yonge St. Suite 1860
Toronto, ON
M2N 6L9

Contact Info
Telephone: 888-383-9753
Fax: 888-383-9753
Website: http://www.etfcm.com


Date Signal Chart Symbol Company Opinion Price
2017-04-24 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  The new French leader, Macron, is liked by Europe.  There is still a risk, but most likely we don’t need to worry about France for now, except that eventually the EU will break up.  The world needs pro-business, but eventually he thinks Europe will not work.  Analysts are expecting 70% earnings growth this year on the S&P, which he thinks is out to lunch.  There is lots of room for disappointment, but the market should rally for a least a few weeks.  He would sell this rally.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-04-24 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  US Government Shutdowns.  Valuations are high and this is a ‘risk-off’.  You want to be defensive if you can.  There have been 22 government shutdowns in history.  The most recent two had a small impact on GDP (0.1%).  The market historically gets nervous before a shut down and then is fine afterwards.  From a markets point of view it is a case of buying dips.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-04-24 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart CCL.B-T CCL Industries (B)

He does not know the details of how they are going to split it.  There is research that shows there is a perception that you can buy more shares after a split.  This is a human condition.  There is nothing beneficial in fundamentals.  Trade it if you want but because you like the company and then own it post-split, but don’t buy it just because it is going to split.


Price:
$300.000
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-24 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart XAW-T iShare Core MSCI World of Canada

When you buy a foreign ETF in Canada, you get a dividend tax withholding.  These ETFs have double negative taxation.  They are not the ideal ones to use.  He likes it otherwise for its overall exposure.  It is a fund holding a fund and that causes you to get dinged twice.


Price:
$23.740
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-24 BUY on WEAKNESS Must be logged in to use chart XEG-T iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Energy ETF

The energy sector outperformed the TSX as energy prices recovered last year, but the TSX has continued to go sideways to slightly higher while the energy sector has gone down.  So he has been adding energy.  He bought equal weight ETFs for North American energy exposure.


Price:
$12.510
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2017-04-24 SELL Must be logged in to use chart XRE-T iShares S&P/TSX Capped REIT

REITs.  We are basically coming up to resistance.  He does not think we will break through there.  He is selling REITs and is almost out.  The dividend is not as attractive as in some other sectors.  He would buy REITs if they got back to their lows.  If there is a cyclical recession in the next few years, then REITs will underperform in that kind of environment.


Price:
$16.660
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2017-04-24 WAIT Must be logged in to use chart ZMT-T BMO S&P/TSX Base Metals ETF

An equal weight play on metals.  It has come off significantly from recent highs.  There are massive risks in this sector.  You have to be very, very good on your timing.  He is not stepping in right now.


Price:
$9.590
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2017-04-24 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZPH-T BMO US Put Write Hedged to CAD

ZPW-T vs. ZPH-T. You have 100% equity exposure even though they are miss-classified on many trading platforms that look at what is in them.  They are writing options.  The fixed income holing is just there for margin purposes.  It is a treasury bill so there is no risk to it.  These are not fixed income. 


Price:
$20.060
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-24 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZPW-T BMO US Put Write ETF.

ZPW-T vs. ZPH-T. You have 100% equity exposure even though they are miss-classified on many trading platforms that look at what is in them.  They are writing options.  The fixed income holing is just there for margin purposes.  It is a treasury bill so there is no risk to it.  These are not fixed income. 


Price:
$19.540
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-24 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZWE-T BMO Europe High Dividend Covered Call Hedged to CAD ET

Europe covered call.  Its biggest weighting is France and it sold off in recent weeks and then today is on new highs.  This is the safeness way to play Europe.


Price:
$22.060
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2017-04-17 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  North Korea is not worrying markets.  Trump has shown his willingness to use aggressive force in recent weeks. The risk metrics are giving you warnings signals, but the stock market does not care.  Some key trend lines are being broken globally.  He would not want to put money to work right now.  The French election outcome could be bad for markets.  The rally is starting to break.  Gold should see resistance at $1300, but $1350 would be where we struggle.  He would sell in that range.  China has been the biggest currency manipulator for 35 years.  With Trump saying his dollar is too strong and he wants it lower it is playing the same game.  For the banks, net interest margins have improved, but the capital markets side just isn’t there.  The leadership sectors have rolled over.  He thinks some kind of correction is coming.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-04-17 WATCH Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Where to put US cash to work in ETFs.  There are a bunch of ETFs with a .U after them that trade in Canada, but in US dollars.   He would wait for a pull back of at least 5% before putting money to work.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-17 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Why is Gold going in the opposite direction to gold stocks?  He does not agree.  Look at the XGD-T.  You have some resistance from the highs of a few months ago and will see natural selling there.  If gold gets to $1350 there is potential for more gains.  He thinks we need to break above that, however.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2017-04-17 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  Hedging the Canadian Dollar.  Currency explains about 70% of the difference in returns between markets.  In Canada, the US$ is key.  Currency differences are caused by imports, exports and interest rate differentials.  We are range bound to 70-80 cents for the next few years.  You want to hedge when the Canadian dollar is at the low end of the scale (.73 or below).


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-04-17 WAIT Must be logged in to use chart AAPL-Q Apple

The valuation is not expensive.  He loves it from that perspective.  The Samsung 8 is getting great reviews and that is putting pressure on AAPL-Q.  In a correction it could come back to $120 and would be more attractive there.  Wait for the next iPhone to come out.


Price:
$141.830
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-17 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart AMZA-N InfraCap MLP ETF

AMZA-N is a master limited trust partnerships ETF that plays in the energy space.  It started at $25 and collapsed down to $5.  The yield has come up considerably and he would question its sustainability.


Price:
$10.500
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-17 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart CEFL-N UBS ETRACS Monthly Pay 2xLeveraged Closed-End Fund

CEFL-N looks like a leveraged play which concerns him.  He would stay away from it, but he knows little about how the leverage is used.


Price:
$17.690
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-17 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart CFW-T Calfrac Well Services Ltd

Oil has come off the lows of a year ago.  The trend line is broken and we are seeing higher highs and higher lows so you want to buy into a dip if you believe oil will get better, which he does not.  Trim exposure if it does not break the $5 resistance.


Price:
$3.870
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-17 WATCH Must be logged in to use chart HCG-T Home Capital Group

You need to look at the long term chart.  There are lower lows and lower highs.  You can’t call a bottom.  You have to see a sign that it has turned.  Hedge funds are playing this stock.  There is high risk and no technical evidence that a bottom is in.  It is for high speculators only.


Price:
$22.120
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-17 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart HNU-T HBP NYMEX Nat'l Gas Bull+

A double leveraged play for Natural Gas.  Future prices of gas are already in this.  This is fine for a short term trade of a week or two, but you need to understand the forward nature of the curve.  You need more increase in gas prices than the futures contracts predict.  He does not think there will be a big boom in Natural Gas this summer.  ZJN-T is junior companies and is a better way to play gas.


Price:
$8.260
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-17 WATCH Must be logged in to use chart MEG-T MEG Energy Corp

Look at a 5 year chart.  It looks like there is some stability and that it is turning around, but there are still question marks in his mind.  You need to take out the 2016 highs.


Price:
$6.800
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-10 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  When you look at forward earnings expectations for 2017 the market is looking for 9% growth.  The US analysts are expecting 23% earnings growth there.  They are expecting tax cuts to help earnings, but we are not getting any tax cuts this year.  If we go to GAAP earnings, we are trading at over 25 times earnings.  The last time was in 2000, then 1987 before that.  The markets are expensive.  It is possible that the US debt will be extended beyond April 28th without a bill.  The problem is that Trump wants it to contain funding for the ‘The Wall’.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-04-10 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

ETFs and Tom Caldwell’s Comments last week on BNN.  The ETFs have the liquidity of the underlying equities.  Larry believes Tom was wrong.  Counter party risks are quite small.  Other derivatives out there are much more toxic.  ETFs will not cause a crisis.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-04-10 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Preferred Shares.  They are fine holdings.  The risks are significant moves in interest rates.  In the last few months there were a lot of financial products being built around preferred shares.  This has pushed up the valuations of preferred shares in general.  They could come back down.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-10 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  Why Long Bonds are the Best Way to Diversify your Portfolio.  You have to look at risk and return.  Long bonds have the same or less risk as equities.  You get a better yield from long bonds than from equities based on risk.  Long bonds are the most negatively correlated to equities.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-10 BUY Must be logged in to use chart CBO-T iShares 1-5 yr Ladder Corp Bond ETF

This is a short term laddered bond portfolio up to 5 years.  The bonds are trading at a premium, generally.  Long term you get a decline in the price.  The yield to maturity is closer to 2%.  The real return is positive even though the valuation goes down over time.  Generally it is a very safe instrument.


Price:
$18.990
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-10 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart HMMJ-T Horizon's Medical Marijuana

Medical Marijuana ETF.  You get a diversified basket.  In a broader market correction, these stocks would get hammered.  If we get a down market in the next year, this would be a long term go-to area.  It is completely speculative.  He is not playing it today, but likes the strategy.


Price:
$11.840
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-10 BUY Must be logged in to use chart ZPH-T BMO US Put Write Hedged to CAD

Low Risk ETF with a Monthly Dividend.  It yields 6-7% a year.  It hedges the currency.  There is not a lot of price movement up and down.  It is not risk free, however.  It will go down half as fast as the market in a rapidly declining market.


Price:
$19.990
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-10 SELL Must be logged in to use chart ZRE-T BMO Equal Weight REITs Index

He likes it when the risk adjusted returns are attractive.  Friday he sold REITs in his dividend fund.  If it gets below $18, it would be attractive again because of the yield.


Price:
$20.210
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2017-04-10 BUY Must be logged in to use chart ZWB-T BMO Covered Call Cdn Banks ETF

In a strong upward market it will underperform the equal weight without covered calls.  Despite what others have said, these are not bad for long term holds.  They do not, however, replace fixed income because you have equity exposure.


Price:
$18.870
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-10 BUY Must be logged in to use chart ZWU-T BMO Covered Call Utilities ETF

In a strong upward market it will underperform the equal weight without covered calls.  Despite what others have said, these are not bad for long term holds.  They do not, however, replace fixed income because you have equity exposure.


Price:
$14.180
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-03 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  He believes governments should not be involved and let capitalism play out for Bombardier.  There should be policies in place to avoid conflicts of interest.  Failing companies should be left to fail.  The US tax reform is going to require a border tax.  We don’t know what it will look like.  This is the beginning of very difficult period.  He is betting that Trump will do something wrong.  Some of the weakness today is just the Market.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-04-03 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Dividend Growth Smart ETF.  SPHB-N and SPLV-N are suggestions.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-03 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Hedged or Unhedged Products.  Many investors pay a lot for changing back and forth between currencies.  For now he thinks we get down to 72 cents to the US dollar.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-03 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  The French election is coming up at the end of April and is not priced into the markets.  There were two elections last year that did not go the way the pollsters predicted.  This is a market risk.  VT-N dropped as we got into the US election last year.  It went 5% below peak.  The Brexit decline was similar.  If we go to an Anti EU government in France it will be very negative for the markets.  ZWE-T is the way to play this.  He buys into dips, but is underweight.  If it gets back down to $19.40 you should get back into it.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-04-03 HOLD Must be logged in to use chart ZID-T BMO India Equity Hedged to CAD ETF

India.  He really likes India and small caps are the way to play it.  He started to get out when we started re-testing the highs.  He is going to buy dips in India because he loves the story.  He makes decisions based on risk and return.  If you like it long term then stick with it.


Price:
$21.700
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2017-04-03 WEAK BUY Must be logged in to use chart ZJG-T BMO Junior Gold Index ETF

Junior gold miners.  It is not linked to gold.  They go up and down relative to the price of gold, but many don’t have production.  He thinks gold is going to break out and will pop to $1350.  It should retest last year’s highs.  Junior gold stocks should test highs also.  He does not like the speculative names.


Price:
$9.040
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2017-04-03 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZWB-T BMO Covered Call Cdn Banks ETF

30% was return of capital in 2016.  In the beginning of 2016 there was about 65 million units outstanding.  By the end there were 5 million new units.  They then had to pay out on additional shares.  They do a return on capital so that everyone gets the same amount of payout.  You are not getting your own money back.  It is an adjustment because there are now more units.  This is the structure of a growing fund.


Price:
$18.890
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-03 BUY Must be logged in to use chart ZWE-T BMO Europe High Dividend Covered Call Hedged to CAD ET

A diversified basket of high dividend covered calls are something he likes.  He would consider adding ZWC-T.  If we go into a 20% bear market then an ETF like these will only fall about 80% of the downside of the market in general.  Also, look at ZWU-T in a recession.


Price:
$21.710
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-27 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  The sentiment on the street regarding the failure to launch the repeal of the health care act is that the tax changes will also be tough.  The big interest is in the mid-term election in 2018.  If it is not attached to a budget then nothing is going to get done.  The most logical thing is for the market to sell off to where it was before the Trump election.  This morning there are dip buyers coming in.  He thinks through April we will continue to drift lower to where we were before the Trump election.  It is the physiology about how markets work. You have to test the confidence.  He did not adjust positions on Friday because he expected it to fail.  There is major execution risk with Trump policy.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-03-27 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  It is the 10th year anniversary of the show.  He often gets the comment that he is always bearish.  But he thinks he is optimistic.  He looks at the risk side before the returns side of investing.  Beta is the sensitivity to the market risk.  When he is considering buying anything he thinks about the risk index.  ZEB-T graph compared to the world index looked at the weekly return and then he finds the trend.  The slope of .65 tells him the sensitivity to the world index.  At this level about 50% is related to sector risk.  He decides how much of the decision relates to the world, or to sector or to the specific stock.  XEG-T is the Canadian energy sector, compared to the world it is more sloped, meaning it is more risky.  He needs to weigh the macro factors more in this case.  SU-T has a lower correlation to the energy sector because there is less risk and that is because of their refining business.  Energy is starting to look interesting now.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-03-27 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ALA-T Altagas Ltd

6.8% is a pretty high yield.  If the outlook for Nat Gas is going to be suppressed for the next couple of years then the dividend is at risk.


Price:
$30.980
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-27 SPECULATIVE BUY Must be logged in to use chart BTL-X BTL Group Ltd.

Within 20 years the world will be paperless in terms of currency.  Central banks and governments are absolutely broke.  Getting rid of the grey economy would really help.  When there is no cash in the system it eliminates all that.  This is one of the earliest types of this process.  It is an interesting concept.


Price:
$3.150
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-27 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart HHL-T Healthcare Leaders Income Fund

The US healthcare bill having failed Friday puts some risk into the sector.  He would be fine if it fell back to support levels, but would not step in today, otherwise it is a fine quality holding.


Price:
$8.400
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-27 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart HRT-T Harte Gold Corp

They have never had any revenue.  Nobody knows what will happen so they are speculative.  He thinks gold will have a rally up to $1350 if we go unto uncertain on the equity market.  ZJG-T is a junior gold ETF and a better way to play it.


Price:
$0.530
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-27 WAIT Must be logged in to use chart TD-T Toronto Dominion

He is cautious on banks as they are starting to pull back.  If we go through a period of uncertainty, all these stocks come back to where they broke out from, otherwise he is comfortable buying here.


Price:
$65.130
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-27 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZLE-T BMO Low Volatility Emerging Markets Equity

You typically get one payout a year from emerging market ETFs.  Generally emerging markets pay out a larger dividend.  He would look for the distribution to settle out at about 2%.  The difference between this and VEE-T is that is it is low volatility. 


Price:
$21.590
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-27 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZWB-T BMO Covered Call Cdn Banks ETF

Covered call banks, but ZWC-T covers more economic sectors.  Banks are 21% of the TSX and are that potion of ZWC-T.


Price:
$18.870
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-27 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart ZWE-T BMO Europe High Dividend Covered Call Hedged to CAD ET

It is a broad, European, covered call strategy.  It could easily fall 10-15% minimum.  Don’t put new money to work here now.  Europe overall is pretty cheap, however. 


Price:
$21.600
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-20 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

G20 Statement. Although tepid, he thinks they are supporting free trade, but probably under a lot of duress from the first real official global meeting with the Trump policy being pushed towards the world. The US is the biggest economy in the world, so what they want tends to typically happen. This is why markets were concerned about the anti-trade, and the original reason why futures market sold off aggressively the night of the election. It is concerning. However, it is not measured in weeks and days or the next tick on the chart; it is a long-term strategic policy. While he is very optimistic and bullish on the need for lower taxes overall, he is concerned about the lack of trade. However, we have seen slower trade globally. Looking at the Baltic Dry Index and the freight rates that are being charged, they have been in a slow decline for years, so it is not anything new. If the biggest economy, the US, is not participating, there will be less trade globally. The US has a surplus against Canada and are not really fighting us, but they’ve made strong statements on softwood lumber as an example. They have a deficit against Mexico, which is where they want to improve and bring stuff and make America great again, and America 1st. We are going to see lots of this for years to come.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-03-20 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Crude oil. He is not bearish in that we are going back to the $20s, but he wants to see what OPEC is going to do. There is some compliance, but it is Saudi Arabia that is more compliant than a lot of the other partners. There is some weakness in OPEC, which is what he expected. Oil shouldn’t be at $55, but should probably be closer to $45.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-03-20 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

BREXIT. The biggest thing from their perspective is, what does Scotland do. Scotland wants to hold a referendum in late 2018 or early 2019. Once they go through the two-year period of the negotiations to either stay or not stay, it is a mess. We haven’t felt one iota of economic impact in terms of trade, etc., and we probably won’t know for a year, or maybe 2, on how this plays out. It does speak to the fact that the UK and the EU doesn’t work, and eventually it is going to start coming apart. This is just the beginning.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-03-20 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Sectors with the best value right now? A couple of weeks ago, low volatility areas had been underperforming significantly. Markets have been strong since the Trump election, up 10%, 15%, 20% depending on where you look and what sectors. Low volatility sectors like utilities, consumer staples have underperformed. Those sectors, right now, screen as cheap because they are much more defensive. What typically happens with fund managers, is when they are positive on the outlook for the market, they are investing in more cyclicals; whether consumer, industrial or technology, companies that are going to get much more of a beta lift when the markets are doing well. When the markets are expected to correct, they can’t go to cash, most managers have to stay fully invested. They sell their consumer cyclical and they buy a consumer staple; they sell their industrial and buy a health care; sell their financial and buy a utility. This takes down their beta or their sensitivity to the downside. The low volume sectors are somewhat attractive right now compared to some of the more cyclical sectors.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-03-20 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Sectors you like and dislike? Real estate is interest rate sensitive, so not his favourite right now. He is underweight. What is really cheap? A couple of days ago, gold was cheap and he was nibbling in this sector. However, if you are talking about a strategy for the long-term, the next 2, 3, 5 years, financials in the US are still pretty cheap. When he is tactical, and moving money around pretty actively, he is looking out 3 months, maybe 6. He has no idea what is going to happen 4 or 5 years from now.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-03-20 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment: Long-Term Investing. This is on geopolitical and global macro, because a lot of global hedge funds macro views and look for themes in markets. This week, Canada has their budget. Global investors look at things like this and look for what is diverging and what is different, and is it good or bad compared to others. The US is cutting taxes, both corporate and personal, while Canada is raising taxes. Global money follows the flow of funds. Canada has net outflows on capital account, net outflows on current account, so we run trade deficits. There is less money coming into Canada so the global investors see that Canada is vulnerable and if they Short Canada as well as the currency, will the Bank of Canada raise rates? Investing in Canada has a lot to do with oil, and as oil goes, so goes the TSX.

If the budget is as bad as he thinks it is going to be, in terms of taxing capital and savings, you use inverse ETF’s. HBP 60 Inverse ETF (HIX-T) is an inverse play on the TSX 60. While Canada is somewhat cheap this year, it is only going to grow at 1.5% a year over the next 5 years, and only because they are borrowing money.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-03-20 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart FIE.A-T iShares Canadian Financial Monthly Income E.T.F.

The distribution on this is somewhat fixed. They are paying out north of a 6%-7% yield. If you look at what is in it, there is nothing that yields that much. Looking at all the banks and the other income generating securities this owns, the average is about 4%. This is paying out about 3% extra, which is capital gain you would’ve otherwise been getting from the share price. This is why you are not seeing a lot of upside in the price movement of this ETF.


Price:
$6.910
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-20 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart SHOP-T Shopify Inc.

Play this through options? The longest option he can see is October. Looking at the current Strike Price, it is around $90Cdn. He prefers Writing options as opposed to buying them. Looking at a $74 option, almost 20% below the market, you could Write a Put today and take in about $2 to $3, meaning you could make a couple percent, waiting to buy this cheaper. He loves these kinds of strategies.


Price:
$92.000
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-20 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZPH-T BMO US Put Write Hedged to CAD

ZPH-T or ZPW-T? He likes them both. When he thinks the CDN$ is going to get weaker, $.02, $.03, $.04, he wants ZPW. When he thinks the Cdn$ may get stronger, then he wants this one and wants to hedge the currency risk.


Price:
$19.980
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-20 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZPW-T BMO US Put Write ETF.

ZPH-T or ZPW-T? He likes them both. When he thinks the CDN$ is going to get weaker, $.02, $.03, $.04, he wants this one. When he thinks the Cdn$ may get stronger, then he wants ZPH and wants to hedge the currency risk.


Price:
$19.210
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-20 BUY Must be logged in to use chart ZWC-T BMO Canadian High Dividend Covered Call ETF

BMO high dividend or BMO Europe high dividend? He loves these and uses them in his fund. When you want to play defence, a high dividend concentration in stocks, tend to have lower downside risk. If you do this with a Covered Call, you get an enhancement on your yield. This one has close to a 6% yield, not a bad way to play Canada.


Price:
$20.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
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1 Comment

raziel

April 3rd 2015 at 8:48am

My preferrers have come down substantially as a result of lowered bank rates, I believe. Shouldn't an instrument with a fixed rate go UP when bank rates are lowered?


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