Viewing Expert Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA | StockChase
stockchase picture

Compiling comments that experts make about stocks while on public TV.

Viewing Expert

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA , Chief Investment Officer, Partner

ETF Capital Management Inc.

Address
5160 Yonge St. Suite 1860
Toronto, ON
M2N 6L9

Contact Info
Telephone: 888-383-9753
Fax: 888-383-9753
Website: http://www.etfcm.com


Date Signal Chart Symbol Company Opinion Price
2017-10-16 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Market.  US earnings are starting on a so-so footing.  The banks started off and given the low volatility of the market, trading volumes were lower than expected.  Revenue growth year over year was not as great as expected so markets were soft.  Banks’ profitability is based on the yield curve and so he does not get excited about the rising interest rate environment because the yield curve is getting flattened.  If you add three more rate hikes, by Q3, we get an inverted yield curve and that predicts recession in 2019.  He does not want to chase markets higher.  Defense is called for.  We are in the worse seasonal period of the year and yet markets have gone higher.  Mid to end of October is historically the worst part of this.  He is waiting for today’s unveiling of the new income tax changes in Canada.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-10-16 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Currency.  If people sell the dollar, where is the other side of that trade?  The Canadian dollar is not big enough for the sale of US dollars.  The Euro can’t be because the Euro will break up soon.  The Japanese Yen is a possibility and he does not think we will see a flight to Chinese Yuan.  Don’t worry about the dollar.  It is not going anywhere any time soon.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-10-16 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  Richard Thaler won a Nobel price.  He is the best behavioral economist.  He spends a lot of time trying to get through to viewers and teach them how to make a better investment decision.  Richard is best known for the endowment effect where you value something overly when you already own.  You are reluctant to sell it below what you bought it at.  Even utility bills are giving you little nudges to help you make better decisions in the use of your energy. 


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-10-16 BUY Must be logged in to use chart HXDM-T Horizons Intl Developed Markets Equity Index ETF.

It is a very good strategy.  They don’t own the stocks but buy a derivate (futures based swap contract) so you don’t get a tax withholding.  This is an advantage in taxable accounts.  It’s only been out a short while.  It is a very good product for people focusing on tax efficiency.


Price:
$32.100
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-10-16 WEAK BUY Must be logged in to use chart MA-N Mastercard Inc.

When the consumer is at risk, such as in an economic slowdown, it is this one that underperforms.  When the economy performs well and credit is building it does well.  He is cautious right now.  He thinks it is extended and is late cycle.  This is a payment processor and not a lender.  Non-payment risk goes to the underlying financial institutions.


Price:
$146.220
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-10-16 HOLD Must be logged in to use chart MFI-T Maple Leaf Foods

There is some short term resistance.  There is nothing wrong technically.  He would be concerned if we took out the lows from the last couple of months.  The long term trend line looks good.  He is not concerned right now.


Price:
$33.290
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-10-16 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart PD-T Precision Drilling

The energy sector is challenged.  He has owned this one on and off over the years.  When there is potential growth in drilling this is a go to stock.  It seems the lack of pipelines out of Canada will be a problem.  This stock will probably not have a material rally.  If we have a regime change in 2019 and there is more openness to pipelines we get a change.


Price:
$3.270
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-10-16 WATCH Must be logged in to use chart XBB-T iShares DEX Universe Bond ETF

The broad Canadian bond market.  The interest rate risk on the broader market is at 7 which mean if we see a 100 basis point increase in interest rates, you will lose about 7% in terms of capital.  It is not time to step in yet.  If interest rates went up 25 basis points then it would be time to move in.  Don’t extend duration until interest rates go up a little but.


Price:
$30.780
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-10-16 BUY on WEAKNESS Must be logged in to use chart ZPR-T BMO S&P/TSX Laddered Preferred

Laddered preferreds.  They do well in rising interest rate environments.  Fundamentally it is not cheap here.  He got a lot a year ago.  He does not like the relative value here.  He would buy into weakness on a pull pack.  That could happen in December.


Price:
$11.790
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2017-10-02 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Market.  Market expectations on tax reform were for nothing getting done.  Now it looks like they will put all their weight in getting a tax package done.  Whatever they get done should be disappointing and we should get a sell-the-news reaction.  Over the last three months earnings revisions have gone down on the S&P.  Canadian tax changes will mean nothing to markets initially but over the long term it may discourage the Canadian entrepreneur.  The government of Spain may fall as a region tries to separate but markets are not reacting.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-10-02 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

CAD$.  On the rate hike front, the BOC is more likely to match the US Fed.  He would not look for an October move -- December maybe.  In the next 6 months the CAD$ will go from 79 to 83 cents.  Below 80 cents he wants to be hedged.  He is fully hedged today.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-10-02 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Bitcoin.  Governments don’t control it.  He believes we are moving to electronic-only currencies globally.  He does not think governments will allow alternative currencies with unlimited amounts in circulation.  Electronic currency gets rid of the gray economy.  GBTC-N is a speculative instrument. 


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-10-02 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

He has been cautious for a year and a half.  There are defensive things you can do.  He runs portfolios with half the risk of the general market using covered call strategies, for example.  Make sure you are globally diversified.  Don’t sit in cash and wait for a pullback.  It may be 2019 before we get a pullback. 


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-10-02 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  (weekly series) What Investor Personality Are You?:  4. The Independent.  A lot of behavioral learning has been incorporated into the body of knowledge.  The independent is a BNN watcher, reads the paper and is interested in being involved in the investing.  These investors are susceptible to a self attribution bias – they take credit if it works and blame the other guy if it doesn’t.  It causes portfolios to be concentrated.  They should focus on diversification. 


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-10-02 BUY on WEAKNESS Must be logged in to use chart ATD.B-T Alimentation Couche-Tard (B)

MRU-T will sell some of their 10% holding in ATD.B-T in an orderly way.  The stock price leveled out over the last couple of years.  He would like it if it pulled back a little.  The forward looking PE is 17, a little high.  He would not buy it today while this M&A is going on.


Price:
$57.830
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-10-02 HOLD Must be logged in to use chart HSE-T Husky Energy

Oil is probably $50 plus or minus $10 for some time.  HSE-T over the last year peaked when oil was in the mid-$50s.  It is priced for $50 oil at present.  We are in the middle of its trading range.  He has been lightening up a little on oil recently.


Price:
$15.580
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-10-02 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZPH-T BMO US Put Write Hedged to CAD

ZWE-T vs. ZPH-T.  ZPH-T is the put write strategy.  If we have an acute sell off, both will lose a little money.  If you are branching outside of Canada, there is no dividend tax credit, but put write gives additional income.  He recommends having a bit of both in order to diversify.  Europe is a bit more attractive over the next couple of years.


Price:
$19.700
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-10-02 WAIT Must be logged in to use chart ZWB-T BMO Covered Call Cdn Banks ETF

Equal weighted Canadian bank covered call strategy.  Banks should settle into a trading range over the next couple of years so buy low and sell high.  Wait until it pulls back.  You could trim your position right now.


Price:
$18.850
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-10-02 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZWE-T BMO Europe High Dividend Covered Call Hedged to CAD ET

ZWE-T vs. ZPH-T.  ZPH-T is the put write strategy.  If we have an acute sell off, both will lose a little money.  If you are branching outside of Canada, there is no dividend tax credit, but put write gives additional income.  He recommends having a bit of both in order to diversify.  Europe is a bit more attractive over the next couple of years.


Price:
$22.140
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-09-25 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  Trump was not focused on North Korea over the weekend in Tweets.  But North Korea is suggesting that previous tweets were a declaration of war.  Markets have dropped slightly.  At some point the market wakes up.  In Germany, Merkel was re-elected but with fewer votes.  The Euro has dropped.  Governing in Germany is going to me more difficult.  Eventually the European project starts to break apart.  The risk factor is there.  Unwinding of countries’ balance sheets is another market risk present.  Caution should prevail in the markets right now.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-09-25 WATCH Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Lithium ETF Recommendation.  LIT-N has had a great run up and is tremendously over bought.  He would wait for a pull back into the low $30s before buying.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-09-25 BUY Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Fang Stocks ETF Recommendation.  FNG-N.  See his educational segment today.  When we go into ‘Risk Off’ you will see a lot of profit taking happening.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-09-25 BUY Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Sleep At Night Portfolio.  He nick-named the portfolios he began running for BMO-T about 4 years ago.  He still believes in these very much. 


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2017-09-25 WATCH Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

ETF in AI Category.  BOTZ-N and ROBO-N.  They have had a phenomenal run up and are probably over done a bit at this point.  Japan has a significant weight.  It will be an investment theme for decades to come.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-09-25 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  (weekly series) What Investor Personality Are You?:  3. The Follower.  Typically are interested in markets but don’t know a lot and are most interested in looking for a ‘tip’.  Their portfolios don’t have a lot of construction or diversification.  They suffer from regret aversion and hindsight bias.  They won’t make a lot of their own decisions.  The FANG stocks have a lot of these.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-09-25 WATCH Must be logged in to use chart CBO-T iShares 1-5 yr Ladder Corp Bond ETF

A laddered bond portfolio.  He likes it.  Each ETF provider’s version has had bad performance over the last few months because short term yields are seen as rising.  The risk is if the BOC is more aggressively tightening.  You want to wait until after the next announcement when there may be another pull back and then perhaps get in.


Price:
$18.500
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-09-25 WATCH Must be logged in to use chart IMO-T Imperial Oil

IMO-T vs. XOM-N.  Oil is not going to take off in a big way but he has been buying oil on weakness over the last while.  However he is now thinking of reducing his weight in oil.  Now is not the time to step in.  He would tend to stick with Canadian because of currency risk.  They are getting over bought.


Price:
$39.550
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-09-25 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart XOM-N Exxon Mobil

IMO-T vs. XOM-N.  Oil is not going to take off in a big way but he has been buying oil on weakness over the last while.  However he is now thinking of reducing his weight in oil.  Now is not the time to step in.  He would tend to stick with Canadian because of currency risk.  They are getting over bought.


Price:
$80.980
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-09-25 BUY Must be logged in to use chart ZPW-T BMO US Put Write ETF.

Writes put options across many sectors.  The decline over the summer was all currency.  You might want to go to ZPH-T if the dollar gets down to a $0.80 dollar.  It has not had the down move of ZPW-T.


Price:
$17.650
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-09-25 HOLD Must be logged in to use chart ZWH-T BMO US High Dividend Covered Call ETF

The decline over the summer was all currency.  If North Korea escalates, the US$ could shoot up and then you would get an increase in the ETF.


Price:
$19.700
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-09-18 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  Everyone is wanting to buy into dips but the markets keeps grinding higher.  He does not think the valuations are attractive however.  Quantitative tightening could be negative for markets.  It is huge to the markets that Trump brings tax reform.  Perhaps we will get a ‘sell the news’ impact. 


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-09-18 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Infrastructure ETF recommendation.  He is not sure there is one that is hedged to the Canadian dollar.  A lot of ETFs leave out the engineering companies.  ZGI-T and CIF-T are two Canadian ETFs but are not hedged.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-09-18 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

A full cost mutual fund is probably 2.5-3% cost.  You get active management.  An index ETF is lower cost but you don’t get the active management.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-09-18 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  (weekly series) What Investor Personality Are You?:  2. The Preserver / Conservative.  They have typically done well in their business or career and have always been conservative.  As they get older they get TOO conservative.  They tend to have more fixed income.  Over the last 30 years they would get 6-7% returns.  Over the next 10 years you are looking at a return of 2.5% before fees with higher risk.  He does not think you can re-think what kind of investor you are. 


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-09-18 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Move mutual funds to a Canadian Bank ETFs? It is not a good idea to concentrate your portfolio into one sector.  You should be globally diversified also.  ZWU-T gives you utilities and telcos.  It is 20% global.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-09-18 HOLD Must be logged in to use chart C-N CitiGroup

It is one of the most global banks we have.  It is not his favourite bank to own.  On a valuation basis there is probably upside, but these banks could easily get cut in half if we ever get a correction.


Price:
$70.600
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-09-18 BUY Must be logged in to use chart PYF-T Purpose Premium Yield Fund

He loves the strategy.  They are consistently taking in yield in the fund and then pay out 6%.  The US exposure has hurt them a little over the last year.  Option strategy premiums are lower at the moment.


Price:
$19.200
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2017-09-18 HOLD Must be logged in to use chart ZEO-T BMO S&P/TSX Oil & Gas ETF

In the next couple of months there may be a little more upside.  At the beginning of the year the stocks were overpriced.  He is going to trim when it gets back to the high end of its trading range.  Don’t add to it now but you could buy on pullbacks.


Price:
$10.500
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2017-09-11 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  Hurricane Irma has been downgraded, North Korea did not proliferate into something worse and so markets have rallied.  The back to back hurricanes you don’t see every day.  The hit to GDP could be greater.  100 Billion to fix things is just 5% of GDP and this is not good growth, although it is growth.  Prayers and wishes to those that have suffered through those however.  The CAD$ and the sudden shift to a more hawkish tone with the US backing off their rate hike expectations has had a dynamic shift in the currencies.  He projects the CAD$ up to 84 cents.  He wants US$ exposure.  The BOC surprised him as he did not expect increased rates.  If the CDU/CSU wins another term in Europe that will probably be good.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-09-11 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  (weekly series) What Investor Personality Are You?: 1. The Accumulator.  They have a confidence bias in what they do, but make common mistakes in investing because they believe they can control the outcome of the markets.  If you are a growth investor and focused on maximizing returns, you have to be aware you will have challenges.  E.g. AMZN-Q.  A compounded return of 37.5%.  When you look at all the ups and downs, look at the amounts.  You have to assume more volatility during corrections.  You have to ask if it is appreciate for you as an investor.  You have to be willing to sit tight every couple of years with a 30-50% correction.  You can’t get in and out repeatedly.  You have to understand what your emotional response will be.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-09-11 WEAK BUY Must be logged in to use chart DOL-T Dollarama Inc.

The $15 minimum wage.  Larry knows someone who owns some Tim Horton’s locations that may go under because of this.  You have to look at what the percentage of wages at DOL-T to find out what the impact is, although there will be one for sure.  The $3 and $4 merchandise is growing things.  He is a value investor and when a stock is at a huge multiple, he is not the right guy to ask about it.  Technically it is overbought.  He expects it to continue going.  You continue to trail your stop up around the trailing one month average.


Price:
$134.560
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-09-11 BUY Must be logged in to use chart ENB-T Enbridge

He likes the pipelines generally.  Over 5 years we came from much lower levels.  There is a lot of resistance now.  You will not see a sustainable move above those levels from $100 oil.  There is value down into the low $40s.  It has a good dividend yield.  He likes the ZWU-T because it also has telcos and other regular type utilities and has a 6%+ yield.


Price:
$49.550
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-09-11 BUY Must be logged in to use chart HOG-T Horizons Cdn Midstream Oil & Gas Index

He likes the services and mid stream sector.  They have a lot of leverage to the upside, but good dividends also.  Drillers are cheap right now.  Pipelines are closer to their highs than their lows.  This is a diversified way to play. 


Price:
$8.960
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-09-11 HOLD Must be logged in to use chart U-T Uranium Participation Corp.

Uranium.  The Japan disaster changed the world’s view on uranium.  There is a reactor in South Florida that they are worried about.  He thought Uranium would be part of the clean solution for power.  India and China are building them, but there is a bias to moving away from them.  There is no shortage of Uranium.  It is on the cheap side now so don’t look for too much in term of growth.


Price:
$3.680
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-09-11 BUY Must be logged in to use chart ZBK-T BMO Equal Weight US Banks ETF

US Financials ETF?  Banks insurance companies, etc.  The list is too long to mention.  The US financial regional banks have underperformed relative to the broader market.  Get an ETF like ZUB-T that is hedged.  He thinks these are attractive.  ZBK-T gives you exposure unhedged in US$.


Price:
$21.520
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-09-11 BUY Must be logged in to use chart ZPW-T BMO US Put Write ETF.

It writes puts 15-20% below current levels to harvest a 6-8% yield.  It has been at the low end of that.  The entire decline in valuation this year is about the increase in the CAD$, not because the underlying holdings have any problem.  ZPH-T is the identical holdings, but not exposed to the US$.  He likes adding US$ here.  Swap to ZPH-T if we get back to an $0.80 CAD$.


Price:
$17.310
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-09-11 BUY Must be logged in to use chart ZUB-T BMO Equal Weight US Banks Hedged to CAD ETF

US Financials ETF?  Banks insurance companies, etc.  The list is too long to mention.  The US financial regional banks have underperformed relative to the broader market.  Get an ETF like ZUB-T that is hedged.  He thinks these are attractive.  ZBK-T gives you exposure unhedged in US$.


Price:
$25.110
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-09-11 BUY Must be logged in to use chart ZWH-T BMO US High Dividend Covered Call ETF

This is how he takes his position in the US market.  He has started adding his US exposure back after hedging previously.  ZWH-T does not have a currency hedge version.


Price:
$19.010
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-08-28 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  The hurricane has an impact on the gas refining industry.  Gas prices are reacting today.  We are 6.5% above average inventory levels.  He does not think we will get a big shoot up like decades ago with Katrina.  XLE-T is showing nothing today.  He would have expected a premium, but today we are actually down.  Supply and demand are more important from a market perspective.  The seasonal pattern for the TSX over 30 years:  We are going into the worst season of the year, from now until mid October or so.  The challenge he has this year is that the TSX has not played out as it normally does year to date.  He thinks the stocks have already reacted so the seasonal pullback should be muted this year.  He sees gold as remaining in the trading range, rather than breaking out in a big way.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-08-28 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

ETFs and a Securities Price Bubble.  Before ETFs the money was in mutual funds.  ETFs are not the cause or the issue.  ETFs are an efficient vehicle for exposure.  His only issue is that if you buy an index ETF you are also buy the bad companies that are in it.  An active ETF is picking the good companies.  Before ETFs, in a pull back, people redeemed mutual funds.  In a selloff now selling ETFs is no different than redeeming mutual funds except that it does not all wait until the end of the day.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-08-28 BUY Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Canadian Dollar $.  We are back up to the extremes at the beginning of the month.  The next technical level is at $0.83, but what is the catalyst to make the CAD$ stronger?  There is the price of oil, interest rate differential and sentiment around what the BOC is going to do.  We are in a trading range.  He is backing up the truck to own US$ in his portfolio.  The trading range will continue for at least the next 6 months.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2017-08-28 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

S&P Seasonality. In the US we have not seen the same divergence as Canada.  Seasonality, if it comes into play, should have more down draft than in Canada. 


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-08-28 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  Where Equity Markets Returns have come from.  Going back to 1970, real return has been 6.3%.  Breaking that down, dividends have been 3.4% points.  Margin and multiple expansion have been 0.5% and 0.1% percentage points.  But in the last 7 years those last two factors have been the most significant.  A 7-year forecast shows a loss of 3.9 on US large caps vs. a gain of 2.9% on emerging markets.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-08-28 WATCH Must be logged in to use chart CVE-T Cenovus Energy

Lower lows and lower highs, it is down, down, down.  The whole energy space is challenged for the next number of years.  We had a pull back.  He thinks there is value here.  It could take 6 months or a year before we realize that value.  This company has company specific risk.  He does not know if the deal they are going to do will be accretive or trouble like the market thinks.  You need to see the trend stop going down.  We might have some support coming in here.  If it holds and we take out some intermediate highs of a few weeks ago, you can gain confidence that the bottom is in.


Price:
$9.210
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-08-28 STRONG BUY Must be logged in to use chart FIH.U-T Fairfax India Holdings Corp

An actively managed basket of Indian stocks.  There is higher cost from the active management and from an index ETF.  In the long run the currency has dragged a little on your returns.  He thinks it will stabilize going forward.  He thinks this will be a fantastic growth area of the world.


Price:
$17.250
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-08-28 SELL Must be logged in to use chart TECK.B-T Teck Resources Ltd. (B)

He says sell!  When commodity prices were high and we were bullish about Chinese growth, the stock was $40-$60 when it was firing on all cylinders.  He does not think we are going back to that.  We already rallied back to the $34 area.  He is a better seller than a buyer.


Price:
$31.260
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-08-28 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZPW-T BMO US Put Write ETF.

It is exposed to the US$.  There is a hedged version (ZPH-T).  It finds the best quality US companies across all 10 sectors and then it writes puts 10-15% below market and harvests the yield.  When volatility is low, as it has been previous in the year, you can’t generate as high a yield.  The entire down move we saw is because of the strengthening of the CAD$.


Price:
$17.780
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-08-21 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets. We are not expecting to get a statement on central banks unwinding quantitative easing, but rather tightening. We are expecting to hear, however, how they are planning to unwind their balance sheets in the future. The markets are starting to respond to some of these negatives. Japan has a deeply struggling economy. They are buying equities and bonds.  He thinks we are heading down the path of what Japan has had to do.  This is playing out over decades. It has to do with the aging demographic.  Bannon out of the Whitehouse: he was the worst part of the election process.  It bought all the worst to the surface including hate.  He is not sure it will fix anything, but it is a step in the right direction.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-08-21 BUY Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Smart ETFs.  In the BMO world they have two niche areas.  (1) Low volatility, low beta.  (2) A couple of years they got into the quality factor space.  When you pay a fee you expect them to pick the best quality companies.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2017-08-21 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

A Correction. Volatility is at an all time high in the US.  We get corrections all the time.  He has never said we are going to have a 30-40% bear market, however last year from 2015 highs to lows in 2016, small caps were down 20% in the US so that is a pretty material correction.  We have not had a broad correction in a long time.  Calling a top is hard and he never does that.  He says he is concerned and it is time to shift the portfolio to more defensive stocks, and ETFs that use covered call strategies.  It is about asset allocation and sector diversification.  Nobody knows when the top is in.  He does not like what he sees over the next couple of years and so is defensive in the way he runs his portfolios.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
Showing 1 to 60 of 2,398 entries
<< < 1 2 3 4 5 > >>

1 Comment

raziel

April 3rd 2015 at 8:48am

My preferrers have come down substantially as a result of lowered bank rates, I believe. Shouldn't an instrument with a fixed rate go UP when bank rates are lowered?


You must be logged in to comment.