Viewing Expert Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA | StockChase
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Compiling comments that experts make about stocks while on public TV.

Viewing Expert

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA , Chief Investment Officer, Partner

ETF Capital Management Inc.

Address
5160 Yonge St. Suite 1860
Toronto, ON
M2N 6L9

Contact Info
Telephone: 888-383-9753
Fax: 888-383-9753
Website: http://www.etfcm.com


Date Signal Chart Symbol Company Opinion Price
2017-02-13 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  He is not sure we will see anything significant coming out of the Trump/ Trudeau meeting.  If you X-out all the commodities we export to the US, there is a pretty balanced trade between Canada and the US.  If they target specific industries those industries could get hurt.  He did not see softwood lumber on the agenda for today.  Trump’s idea of fair may be very different than Trudeau’s idea of fair.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-02-13 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Paying the S&P-500 – Pullback possible?  He thinks we will get some disappointment risk on execution.  The tax plan is probably not being implemented until 2018 now.  He thinks there will be a buying opportunity coming soon with a 5-10% pullback as there is one every year.  He would not be a buyer of the S&P-500 for the long term right now, but it is good for a trade.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-02-13 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Canadian version of ZPW-T?  He does not think there is one coming because there is not the depth to the Canadian market. 


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-02-13 SELL Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Gold.  He was buying XGD-T, ZGD-T when gold was around $1150 a month and a half back.  He has since sold out of XGD-T.  He trimmed GLD-N last week.  He does not know if Trump will be bullish for gold or not.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2017-02-13 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment. Using Stops. The value approach looks for a range of support and how you buy into it.  Anchoring is a behaviour where you want to try to get your money back.  That is the wrong way to think about it.  You should think about where you should put the money in a losing stock.  Get out of a position if it is not working.  You should have a plan on when to get out.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-02-13 BUY on WEAKNESS Must be logged in to use chart GOOGL-Q Alphabet Inc. (A)

He is concerned about valuation here.  But they are a great company.  In a market correction it could come down more than the market.  $740-750 would be a buying range.


Price:
$838.960
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-02-13 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart IWM-N iShares Russell 2000 ETF

Analysts are expecting about 80% earnings growth over the next year in the Russell 2000.  There is room for disappointment.  He initiated a short position on it as part of a long/short strategy.


Price:
$138.300
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2017-02-13 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart VAH-T Vanguard FTSE Developed Asia Pacific All Cap Index ETF

Look at the risk factors. US Trump execution is a big one. Brexit negotiations start next month. Also, there are German and French elections. This will be the beginning of the EU breaking up and will be bearish for a while and then bullish in the long run. He is out of Japan, however. 


Price:
$27.680
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-02-13 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart WMT-N Wal-Mart Stores Inc.

If Chinese imports are taxed, it will really hurt Walmart.  Don’t buy above the 52 week lows.


Price:
$67.770
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-02-13 BUY Must be logged in to use chart ZWE-T BMO Europe High Dividend Covered Call Hedged to CAD ET

European Market. He plays it with ZWE-T. It has high dividends and a covered call strategy with a currency hedge.  6-7% yield.  For the next 5 years that would be pretty good for Europe.  It is the more conservative way to go.


Price:
$21.310
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-02-06 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  Trump’s immigration policy is not going that well.  He says he wants the US$ weaker.  Border taxes will almost certainly push the dollar higher.  There are conflicting policies.  At some point the market wakes up and realizes there will be execution problems.  The US will be VERY well supplied with oil for the next 5 years with Keystone coming on.  This will put downward pressure on oil prices.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-02-06 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Bear Markets.  Inverse ETFs will go up 1:1 when markets to down.  Don’t use leveraged ETFs.  Utilities are best correlated to interest rates.  Gold can rally in a bear market.  You have to look at bonds because they rally in a bear market.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-02-06 BUY on WEAKNESS Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Cyber Security.  There are two ETFs.  HACK-N is one.  You get access to all the companies playing in the space.  It has been trending since day one.  He would buy on dips as the ETF has been climbing since its inception.  Risks right here are a little high, however.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2017-02-06 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  Measuring Risk and Reward.  Within 20 years the vast majority of money in the world will be run by computers.  The traditional portfolio manager will be gone.  E.g. SU-T, 25% of the sector, a big player.  Going back 10 years it has made nobody any money for 10 years.  It is up less than the dividend.  Buy it when it is cheap relative to the benchmark and the markets.  Figure out how much you need in your portfolio.  The price of oil is the most important factor in the stock price.  Looking at the 5 year chart it is incredibly overvalued.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-02-06 SELL Must be logged in to use chart AAPL-Q Apple

He does not like where it is.  We are against all time highs.  It could break out, but there is definitely resistance here.  You could write a put option and get paid about 5% yield over the next year.  If it drops 20% then you will have to buy it and that is fine.  This is how he would play AAPL-Q.  If the option expires, then just do it again.


Price:
$130.290
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2017-02-06 SELL Must be logged in to use chart CLF-T iShares 1-5 yr Government Bond ETF

He prefers corporate bonds because they yield more than government bonds.  Prices will probably continue to fall.  You are getting a bigger yield payment than the yield to maturity on the bonds themselves.  CBO-T would be the replacement for this ETF.


Price:
$18.550
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-02-06 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZWB-T BMO Covered Call Cdn Banks ETF

The MER is in the 40-50 basis point range.  The enhanced yield is created with an option writing overlay.  They write one standard deviation out of the money.  The options can enhance yield 1.5 percentage points over time.


Price:
$18.940
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-01-30 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  The US revenue growth is about 4% year over year and if you factor in 2% inflation, then back out energy and financials, you get negative growth.  The forecast is for double digit earnings growth going forward and he does not see that happening.  He is concerned about some of the policies that Trump promised.  Closing the borders is negative for growth.  Entitlement reform is Medicare.  It is estimated to cost $50 Trillion out to 2050.  If Trump tacks on these border tariffs, there is still potential for the US$ to strengthen. 


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-01-30 BUY Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

ETFs for smaller amounts of cash to invest.  You can buy a handful of them and buy a much diversified global portfolio.  You need to understand risk management. 


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
AGRICULTURE, DIVIDEND & FIXED INCOME
Bias:
BEAR
Owned:
_N/A
2017-01-30 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  Smart Factor ETFs.  Reducing portfolio risk.  The trend between actively managed mutual funds compared to what capital is going into ETFs show money is moving that way.  You can do asset allocation with ETFs and that is by far the most important consideration.  The bigger companies dominate the NASDAQ.  Three sectors make up half the index.  It is very concentrated and heavily weighted into a few stocks.  All smart factor ETFs beat the index.  They all have different volatilities.  You should use all of the indexing strategies in your portfolio. 


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
AGRICULTURE, DIVIDEND & FIXED INCOME
Bias:
BEAR
Owned:
_N/A
2017-01-30 HOLD Must be logged in to use chart FDN-N First Trust Dow Jones Internet Index Fund

Internet ETF.  Analysts do not make consensus targets for ETFs.  The average PE is no different from the overall NASDAQ.  The trend is healthy.  It is not cheap.


Price:
$85.950
Subject:
AGRICULTURE, DIVIDEND & FIXED INCOME
Bias:
BEAR
Owned:
Unknown
2017-01-30 HOLD Must be logged in to use chart GIB.A-T CGI Group (A)

The long term trend is pretty good, but in the last year it has been pretty flat.  He would not be too worried about it until the long term trend is broken.  (Analysts target: $70).  You want to trim near $70.


Price:
$63.130
Subject:
AGRICULTURE, DIVIDEND & FIXED INCOME
Bias:
BEAR
Owned:
Unknown
2017-01-30 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart VEA-N Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index Fund ETF.

VEA-N vs. VEU-N.  VEA-N is the developed market index, excluding the US.  VEU-N is the entire world, excluding the US.  VT-N is his preference for the whole world.


Price:
$37.980
Subject:
AGRICULTURE, DIVIDEND & FIXED INCOME
Bias:
BEAR
Owned:
Unknown
2017-01-30 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart VEU-N Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Index Fund ETF.

VEA-N vs. VEU-N. VEA-N is the developed market index, excluding the US.  VEU-N is the entire world, excluding the US.  VT-N is his preference for the whole world.


Price:
$46.180
Subject:
AGRICULTURE, DIVIDEND & FIXED INCOME
Bias:
BEAR
Owned:
Unknown
2017-01-30 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZWH-T BMO US High Dividend Covered Call ETF

There is no risk-free.  Covered call strategies call in a bear market. Dividends are pasted straight through from the companies.


Price:
$20.670
Subject:
AGRICULTURE, DIVIDEND & FIXED INCOME
Bias:
BEAR
Owned:
Unknown
2017-01-23 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Stop Losses.  Using stops in portfolios is a certain kind of style for people who do not understand diversification and are pure momentum players.  It is fine.  But the vast majority of guests on BNN are portfolio managers and have a long term horizon.  Being stopped out can be silly in that case.  He is going to do a series on them in his educational segment in the future. 


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-01-23 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  The first one hundred days of Trump:  It remains to be seen, but today we saw some of the rhetoric about trade and breaking NAFTA.  This is what people were worried about.  You will see markets getting a little nervous.  He is looking for markets to go back to levels from around the time of the election in November over the next couple of months.  Trump’s talk to CEOs about taxes to companies that moved production outside of boarders should be negative.  Trump’s administration does not want to go down the road of a process where they get things done without congress.  So far so good in this year’s earnings season, but expectations were high with a rally preceding it.  A lot of good news is priced in. 


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-01-23 WATCH Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

ETF for Demographics.  It would be great if they had an ETF for this.  There is not one in the market, but he thinks someone is working on it.  Maybe in the next couple of quarters one comes out.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2017-01-23 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

ZEB-T & ZWB-T or Buy The Banks Directly?  A covered call strategy takes a lot of work to implement so you would not want to do it yourself.  He thinks without the covered call, this index will come down.  You could buy the six banks yourself if your portfolio was big enough, but the covered call strategy would be a lot to implement yourself.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-01-23 BUY Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

North American Oil.  With Trump turning on the spigots there will be a lot more investment in the oil area.  Despite the oversupply, there is still a lot of money to be made in fracking.  They are getting more efficient every day.  It will be a great growth area.  Buy dips in this area.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-01-23 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  Smart Factor ETFs.  Research affiliates.  He showed a graphic depicting smart factors that look at momentum, volatility, liquidity, profitability, etc.  If you calculate excess returns, on average over history about 40 years you average about 2.4% in excess return.  The average volatility is mostly less than the index.  A second graphic looked at cross correlation of factor returns.  If you put two together in a portfolio you get diversification. 


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-01-23 BUY on WEAKNESS Must be logged in to use chart CPG-T Crescent Point Energy Corp

He sold it and took a small profit.  He trades very short term.  It is a great company and got a lot lower than when he bought it.  He does not like it here.  Wait for the next major down turn.


Price:
$15.390
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2017-01-23 BUY Must be logged in to use chart HHL-T Healthcare Leaders Income Fund

They use an option overlay to generate extra yield.  It is a great way to play healthcare, which he is bullish on.  Nice yield.  In a strong equity market you would underperform with the covered call strategy.


Price:
$7.930
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-01-23 BUY on WEAKNESS Must be logged in to use chart XID-T iShares CNX Nifty India

He loves it.  A couple of weeks back he wrote about it on his blog.  About 40 years on average their currency has lost 5% per year.  He thinks it will level out now.  There are very good pro-business policy there despite all the corruption in Indian politics. 


Price:
$28.750
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2017-01-16 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  Brexit news is coming tomorrow from Britain.  Brexit is part of the shift to the right and it shows that people don’t want globalization any longer.  You have to understand what it means for growth and volatility.  It is a headwind.  It will be good for British exports, but if you invest in the UK, you better buy the hedged version of the ETF.  Trump is protectionist.  We are just beginning to see what this means on a trade basis.  He thinks it will allow not more than 2% growth in the US GDP.  The banks have had a big run up and he sees a sell-the-news happening soon.  There have been some misses and we have to watch for those.  Inauguration of Trump happens this week and you have to look at seasonally patters for the last 60 years, post inauguration day.  You don’t have much growth on average for the rest of the year.  A lot of news is priced into the market.  You have to play defense.  A post inauguration correction is expected.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-01-16 BUY Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  Smart Beta ETFs.  Sustainable yield.  High dividend stocks can’t usually sustain the high dividends.  Sphere’s strategy aims to offer sustainable dividends.  You have to eliminate stocks from an ETF that can’t sustain high dividends.  They have a screen for these companies.  You lose a little yield, but greatly reduce volatility.  SHC-T is a Canadian sustainable high yield ETF.  They have US, Europe, Asian etc as well.  It is not always about the MERs. 


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-01-16 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart HNU-T HBP NYMEX Nat'l Gas Bull+

Leveraged ETFs are toxic for long term holding.  The more volatile the underlying asset its, the more toxic it is.  It is great for short term trading.  You don’t go out and sit on this because the price of Nat Gas will eventually go up.  ZJN-T is a good one to sit on for Nat Gas exposure.  You can play it for a long period of time.


Price:
$11.260
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-01-16 HOLD Must be logged in to use chart SJ-T Stella-Jones Inc.

They had a disappointing forecast.  In the past year it sold off every time it got above $45.  At best it is a hold.


Price:
$39.500
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-01-16 SELL ON STRENGTH Must be logged in to use chart SLW-T Silver Wheaton

Silver Technicals: It is a speculation on money, inflation and so on.  Gold broke $1200 support recently, so we will see some resistance at $1250 soon.  He is out of all his gold shares.  He is inclined to sell into this pop a little bit.  He would then buy the dips after that.


Price:
$26.960
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-01-16 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart ZPW-T BMO US Put Write ETF.

A put write strategy on a 100 of the best US companies across all economic sectors.  They have a pretty sustainable payout, but it is paid in US$.  It is not hedged.  They have filed a prospective on a hedged ETF that is similar.


Price:
$19.620
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-01-16 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZWA-T BMO Dow Jones Indus. Avg. Hedge ETF

DOW mature blue chip companies with a covered call overlay.  ZPW-T or a hedged version, which is even better, would be better going forward.


Price:
$20.150
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-01-16 BUY on WEAKNESS Must be logged in to use chart ZWB-T BMO Covered Call Cdn Banks ETF

It has a covered call overlay.  A lot of good news is priced into the banks so he would not be chasing this one, but be a dup-buyer in the Canadian banks.


Price:
$18.710
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2017-01-09 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  He is calling for a correction after the Trump rally.  Statistically, most times from the beginning of the year until some point later, you can buy the market cheaper than when the year first started (80% of the time).  US Earnings season gets ticking this Friday.  There has been a huge move in some of the banks since the election, looking at higher interest rates and deregulation.  The reality may be much different than the market is looking for.  Net interest margins will not be meaningfully impacted yet.  A year from now we will see the impact of interest rate increases.  Hopefully now banks will have freer use of their capital.  Are autos looking at trade wars – it has not come out except in the twittisphere.  Oil poked above $50 and shale producer rig count rose in the US.  Over the next 6 months it will go up to $56 and then will remain constant for 4 or 5 years.  It remains questionable whether OPEC can execute on their deal.  We have not seen the impact of Brexit and won’t for a year or two.  There will be a hard line on both sides as to what that looks like. 


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-01-09 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  How to play the market if you are risk adverse in 2017.  Are Trump policies coming in or not?  Over the last 10 years the marginal tax rate for corporations has come down from 50% in 1955 to 35% recently.  Analysts expect 22% earnings growth from the S&P.  The PE of the S&P is 21 times.  It is a 23% world GDP economy.  The banks have been the big leader since the election.  It’s going to take a lot of interest rate hike to get the banks back to where they should be with interest rate spreads.  There is a new president, first term, new party.  The average pattern has half a percent gain.  We have already exceeded that.  The inauguration is pretty much the high point for the year.  Get into options late in the market cycle. 


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-01-09 BUY Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Income over two to three years.  There is a new ETF from BMO that is a high dividend ZWH-T (US) and ZWE-T (Europe) and also a Canadian one.  You will get 6-7% a year and he loves these in a defensive market.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-01-09 BUY Must be logged in to use chart GILD-Q Gilead Sciences Inc.

It has been in decline for a number of years but looks like it is forming a base.  (Analysts’ Target: $95).  It looks like it is fairly attractive, but he would sell after it got to $90.  If it keeps making lower lows and lower highs then you have to question it.


Price:
$75.840
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-01-09 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ICE-N Intercontinentalexchange Inc.

Analysts are looking at 5% revenue growth and more in earnings but he questions that.  The chart looks good with higher highs and lower lows.  (Analysts’ Target: $65).


Price:
$57.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-01-09 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart MG-T Magna Int'l. (A)

A year and a half of price weakness and then post-election it has done well along with some other car companies.  You are smack dab in the middle of the trading range.  He does not see a rosy outlook here and sees more downside risk than upside.


Price:
$58.610
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-01-09 SPECULATIVE BUY Must be logged in to use chart NXPI-Q NXP Semiconductors

There is a $110 cash offer.  The $98 stock price probably correctly reflects the risks.  He does not have more to add.  When there is an M&A deal, the charts don’t matter at all.


Price:
$98.390
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-01-09 BUY Must be logged in to use chart ZPW-T BMO US Put Write ETF.

It is not CAD$ hedged.  BMO has filed perspective on a bunch of new ETFs and there should be one available in the next month that is the CAD$ hedged version of this.  They net about 10% premium on the puts.  About 3% is lost due to puts being exercised so you get an extra 7% over the performance of the stocks within the ETF.  It is not risky and is exposure to the US market. (Your exposure should net a long position, if it ever got executed).


Price:
$19.620
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2016-11-28 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

OPEC. There’s going to be a deal, but the deal is going to be to freeze production, not cut production. The history of OPEC is that they always cheat, and there is basically no chance in his mind, that even if they agree to a ceiling at 33 million barrels, that they adhere to it. It is all about demand, so is global demand in a slowing world going to increase? OECD has said that the world is going to grow a little bit better because we are no longer austerity driven, but we are driven by spending. The GDP formula is GDP=C+1+G(X-M). When the government borrows and spends like they expect to on infrastructure, mathematically GDP is going to go up, but here’s the thing with the consumer (C). His average client is probably around 60 years old, and their financial plan indicates their money is going to last 30 to 35 years. It doesn’t matter how low interest rates get or how much the government is going to spend, aggregate demand (G) is not going up, as people are living longer. This demographic headwind that we are facing is going to be really toxic for growth for the next decade and decades to come. Increasing government spending is only going to add on to the debt. That is another massive headwind. We have some very difficult economic challenges going forward.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
_N/A
2016-11-28 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Oil. An OPEC Expectations chart shows that 12 months’ forward oil prices is really going to struggle to get through $50. As soon as we get up to $50 you are going to see a lot of Forward Selling next year, which ramps up supply.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
_N/A
2016-11-28 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Cdn Banks. Right now, the banks have a lot of tailwinds because of the perception that interest rates are going up, but he believes that the Fed will raise rates in December and the Bank of Canada is on hold. The next move after that will be a rate cut by both the bank of Canada and the Fed, not a rate increase.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2016-11-28 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

US ETF’s for an RRSP portfolio? He holds the BMO US Put Write (ZPW-T), where they are writing on great companies and writing Puts 15%-20% below the market, and are harvesting about a 7%+ yield per year. On the other side of that, he owns the BMO Covered Call Utilities (ZWH-T) which looks at some of the best quality dividend payers in the US, and writes a covered call strategy on half that, generating around 6%. The combination of those 2 exposures to the US market gives him a yield of 6.5%, and a risk of about 30% of the S&P 500. He thinks that is the absolute best way to get exposure today.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Yes
2016-11-28 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

REITs, utilities and preferred shares for a 5% return for a Buy and Hold investor? From time to time, interest rate sensitive sectors get hurt. He likes BMO Equal Weight REITs Index Cdn (ZRE-T), BMO Covered Call Utilities (ZWU-T) which is yielding over 7%. He has a half position in each one, and has recently been adding to this.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Yes
2016-11-28 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Dividend ETF’s? Like all the factors in the smart Beta products, dividends are the most widely known for the average investor, and maybe 2nd to value as a way to play the markets. Sometimes dividend stocks do really, really well, and sometimes they don’t. Right now, if you look at a lot of the dividend indexes, they’ve had decent performance. He doesn’t like the relative value today, and would be underweight dividend stocks at the moment.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2016-11-28 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

ETF for US regional banks in Canadian funds? The BMO Equal Weight US Banks Hedged to Cdn (ZUB-T) plays a lot of the regionals, but some of the larger ones as well. If you want the pure Regional ETF, SPDR S&P Regional Banking (KRE-N) has many of the ones that the BMO has, but doesn’t have a lot of the big ones.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2016-11-28 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

How maximum diversification works. This process gathers a basket of stocks that helps you to diversify as much as can be done, and still get exposure to the index. He focuses on correlation. He starts with the same universe as the Market Cap Benchmark, but what the formula looks most closely at is correlations. He will assemble a portfolio that uses the securities outside of the starting universe, that have the lowest possible correlation to each other. When you are able to assemble a portfolio in that way, it will be the most diversified portfolio that you can create of a given universe. One of the goals is to generate a higher return, but also deliberate with less volatility. The MER on this is 60 basis points, but you’re getting a much better ride. Not only is this less volatile, but it is better performing than the market cap benchmark over a full market cycle by a meaningful amount. He is equally exposed to all of the risk factors in the market. (By Faizan Dhanani, Managing Dir. for TOBAM, Mackenzie Investments.)


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2016-11-28 PARTIAL BUY Must be logged in to use chart AQN-T Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp

He loves the alternative energy space. Over time we are going to have less carbon, and we are not going back to coal fired plants and dirty energy. The world is aiming to get cleaner. A company like this, that focuses on renewables, should do very well in the very long run. Looking at earnings and the multiple, it is a little bit expensive. At the current price, it looks very attractive. He would nibble away at this.


Price:
$10.780
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2016-11-28 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart CPD-T iShares S&P/TSX Preferred ETF

If interest rates are going to go up (he doesn’t think that is going to happen in a big way), then reset preferreds make a lot of sense. If interest rates are going to go down, reset preferreds don’t. The BMO S&P/TSX Laddered Preferred (ZPR-T) has more reset preferreds in it, while this one is a combination of traditional type preferreds and the resets. Either one is fine right now, but he has been a net seller of these in recent weeks. If this one dips back to about $12.50, he is going to start buying again. He would be a seller above $13.


Price:
$12.800
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
Showing 1 to 60 of 2,152 entries
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1 Comment

raziel

April 3rd 2015 at 8:48am

My preferrers have come down substantially as a result of lowered bank rates, I believe. Shouldn't an instrument with a fixed rate go UP when bank rates are lowered?


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