Viewing Expert Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA | StockChase
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Compiling comments that experts make about stocks while on public TV.

Viewing Expert

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA , Chief Investment Officer, Partner

ETF Capital Management Inc.

Address
5160 Yonge St. Suite 1860
Toronto, ON
M2N 6L9

Contact Info
Telephone: 888-383-9753
Fax: 888-383-9753
Website: http://www.etfcm.com


Date Signal Chart Symbol Company Opinion Price
2017-03-27 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  The sentiment on the street regarding the failure to launch the repeal of the health care act is that the tax changes will also be tough.  The big interest is in the mid-term election in 2018.  If it is not attached to a budget then nothing is going to get done.  The most logical thing is for the market to sell off to where it was before the Trump election.  This morning there are dip buyers coming in.  He thinks through April we will continue to drift lower to where we were before the Trump election.  It is the physiology about how markets work. You have to test the confidence.  He did not adjust positions on Friday because he expected it to fail.  There is major execution risk with Trump policy.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-03-27 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  It is the 10th year anniversary of the show.  He often gets the comment that he is always bearish.  But he thinks he is optimistic.  He looks at the risk side before the returns side of investing.  Beta is the sensitivity to the market risk.  When he is considering buying anything he thinks about the risk index.  ZEB-T graph compared to the world index looked at the weekly return and then he finds the trend.  The slope of .65 tells him the sensitivity to the world index.  At this level about 50% is related to sector risk.  He decides how much of the decision relates to the world, or to sector or to the specific stock.  XEG-T is the Canadian energy sector, compared to the world it is more sloped, meaning it is more risky.  He needs to weigh the macro factors more in this case.  SU-T has a lower correlation to the energy sector because there is less risk and that is because of their refining business.  Energy is starting to look interesting now.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-03-27 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ALA-T Altagas Ltd

6.8% is a pretty high yield.  If the outlook for Nat Gas is going to be suppressed for the next couple of years then the dividend is at risk.


Price:
$30.980
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-27 SPECULATIVE BUY Must be logged in to use chart BTL-X BTL Group Ltd.

Within 20 years the world will be paperless in terms of currency.  Central banks and governments are absolutely broke.  Getting rid of the grey economy would really help.  When there is no cash in the system it eliminates all that.  This is one of the earliest types of this process.  It is an interesting concept.


Price:
$3.150
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-27 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart HHL-T Healthcare Leaders Income Fund

The US healthcare bill having failed Friday puts some risk into the sector.  He would be fine if it fell back to support levels, but would not step in today, otherwise it is a fine quality holding.


Price:
$8.400
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-27 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart HRT-T Harte Gold Corp

They have never had any revenue.  Nobody knows what will happen so they are speculative.  He thinks gold will have a rally up to $1350 if we go unto uncertain on the equity market.  ZJG-T is a junior gold ETF and a better way to play it.


Price:
$0.530
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-27 WAIT Must be logged in to use chart TD-T Toronto Dominion

He is cautious on banks as they are starting to pull back.  If we go through a period of uncertainty, all these stocks come back to where they broke out from, otherwise he is comfortable buying here.


Price:
$65.130
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-27 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZLE-T BMO Low Volatility Emerging Markets Equity

You typically get one payout a year from emerging market ETFs.  Generally emerging markets pay out a larger dividend.  He would look for the distribution to settle out at about 2%.  The difference between this and VEE-T is that is it is low volatility. 


Price:
$21.590
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-27 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZWB-T BMO Covered Call Cdn Banks ETF

Covered call banks, but ZWC-T covers more economic sectors.  Banks are 21% of the TSX and are that potion of ZWC-T.


Price:
$18.870
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-27 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart ZWE-T BMO Europe High Dividend Covered Call Hedged to CAD ET

It is a broad, European, covered call strategy.  It could easily fall 10-15% minimum.  Don’t put new money to work here now.  Europe overall is pretty cheap, however. 


Price:
$21.600
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-20 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

G20 Statement. Although tepid, he thinks they are supporting free trade, but probably under a lot of duress from the first real official global meeting with the Trump policy being pushed towards the world. The US is the biggest economy in the world, so what they want tends to typically happen. This is why markets were concerned about the anti-trade, and the original reason why futures market sold off aggressively the night of the election. It is concerning. However, it is not measured in weeks and days or the next tick on the chart; it is a long-term strategic policy. While he is very optimistic and bullish on the need for lower taxes overall, he is concerned about the lack of trade. However, we have seen slower trade globally. Looking at the Baltic Dry Index and the freight rates that are being charged, they have been in a slow decline for years, so it is not anything new. If the biggest economy, the US, is not participating, there will be less trade globally. The US has a surplus against Canada and are not really fighting us, but they’ve made strong statements on softwood lumber as an example. They have a deficit against Mexico, which is where they want to improve and bring stuff and make America great again, and America 1st. We are going to see lots of this for years to come.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-03-20 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Crude oil. He is not bearish in that we are going back to the $20s, but he wants to see what OPEC is going to do. There is some compliance, but it is Saudi Arabia that is more compliant than a lot of the other partners. There is some weakness in OPEC, which is what he expected. Oil shouldn’t be at $55, but should probably be closer to $45.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-03-20 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

BREXIT. The biggest thing from their perspective is, what does Scotland do. Scotland wants to hold a referendum in late 2018 or early 2019. Once they go through the two-year period of the negotiations to either stay or not stay, it is a mess. We haven’t felt one iota of economic impact in terms of trade, etc., and we probably won’t know for a year, or maybe 2, on how this plays out. It does speak to the fact that the UK and the EU doesn’t work, and eventually it is going to start coming apart. This is just the beginning.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-03-20 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Sectors with the best value right now? A couple of weeks ago, low volatility areas had been underperforming significantly. Markets have been strong since the Trump election, up 10%, 15%, 20% depending on where you look and what sectors. Low volatility sectors like utilities, consumer staples have underperformed. Those sectors, right now, screen as cheap because they are much more defensive. What typically happens with fund managers, is when they are positive on the outlook for the market, they are investing in more cyclicals; whether consumer, industrial or technology, companies that are going to get much more of a beta lift when the markets are doing well. When the markets are expected to correct, they can’t go to cash, most managers have to stay fully invested. They sell their consumer cyclical and they buy a consumer staple; they sell their industrial and buy a health care; sell their financial and buy a utility. This takes down their beta or their sensitivity to the downside. The low volume sectors are somewhat attractive right now compared to some of the more cyclical sectors.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-03-20 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Sectors you like and dislike? Real estate is interest rate sensitive, so not his favourite right now. He is underweight. What is really cheap? A couple of days ago, gold was cheap and he was nibbling in this sector. However, if you are talking about a strategy for the long-term, the next 2, 3, 5 years, financials in the US are still pretty cheap. When he is tactical, and moving money around pretty actively, he is looking out 3 months, maybe 6. He has no idea what is going to happen 4 or 5 years from now.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-03-20 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment: Long-Term Investing. This is on geopolitical and global macro, because a lot of global hedge funds macro views and look for themes in markets. This week, Canada has their budget. Global investors look at things like this and look for what is diverging and what is different, and is it good or bad compared to others. The US is cutting taxes, both corporate and personal, while Canada is raising taxes. Global money follows the flow of funds. Canada has net outflows on capital account, net outflows on current account, so we run trade deficits. There is less money coming into Canada so the global investors see that Canada is vulnerable and if they Short Canada as well as the currency, will the Bank of Canada raise rates? Investing in Canada has a lot to do with oil, and as oil goes, so goes the TSX.

If the budget is as bad as he thinks it is going to be, in terms of taxing capital and savings, you use inverse ETF’s. HBP 60 Inverse ETF (HIX-T) is an inverse play on the TSX 60. While Canada is somewhat cheap this year, it is only going to grow at 1.5% a year over the next 5 years, and only because they are borrowing money.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-03-20 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart FIE.A-T iShares Canadian Financial Monthly Income E.T.F.

The distribution on this is somewhat fixed. They are paying out north of a 6%-7% yield. If you look at what is in it, there is nothing that yields that much. Looking at all the banks and the other income generating securities this owns, the average is about 4%. This is paying out about 3% extra, which is capital gain you would’ve otherwise been getting from the share price. This is why you are not seeing a lot of upside in the price movement of this ETF.


Price:
$6.910
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-20 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart SHOP-T Shopify Inc.

Play this through options? The longest option he can see is October. Looking at the current Strike Price, it is around $90Cdn. He prefers Writing options as opposed to buying them. Looking at a $74 option, almost 20% below the market, you could Write a Put today and take in about $2 to $3, meaning you could make a couple percent, waiting to buy this cheaper. He loves these kinds of strategies.


Price:
$92.000
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-20 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZPH-T BMO US Put Write Hedged to CAD

ZPH-T or ZPW-T? He likes them both. When he thinks the CDN$ is going to get weaker, $.02, $.03, $.04, he wants ZPW. When he thinks the Cdn$ may get stronger, then he wants this one and wants to hedge the currency risk.


Price:
$19.980
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-20 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZPW-T BMO US Put Write ETF.

ZPH-T or ZPW-T? He likes them both. When he thinks the CDN$ is going to get weaker, $.02, $.03, $.04, he wants this one. When he thinks the Cdn$ may get stronger, then he wants ZPH and wants to hedge the currency risk.


Price:
$19.210
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-20 BUY Must be logged in to use chart ZWC-T BMO Canadian High Dividend Covered Call ETF

BMO high dividend or BMO Europe high dividend? He loves these and uses them in his fund. When you want to play defence, a high dividend concentration in stocks, tend to have lower downside risk. If you do this with a Covered Call, you get an enhancement on your yield. This one has close to a 6% yield, not a bad way to play Canada.


Price:
$20.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2017-03-20 BUY Must be logged in to use chart ZWE-T BMO Europe High Dividend Covered Call Hedged to CAD ET

BMO high dividend or BMO Europe high dividend? He loves these and uses them in his fund. When you want to play defence, a high dividend concentration in stocks, tend to have lower downside risk. If you do this with a Covered Call, you get an enhancement on your yield.


Price:
$21.590
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2017-03-20 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZWU-T BMO Covered Call Utilities ETF

What is the downside risk? This has 80% pipelines, telcos, utilities in Canada and 20% in the US. Generally utilities, telcos and pipelines are big dividend players. This is yielding about 7%, a very nice yield, but extremely interest rate sensitive. In 2013, when the US Federal Reserve was first talking about raising rates, we had the taper tantrum. This ETF went down pretty hard, but then came back up when the Fed backed off. In 2015, there was a big drop because of pipelines, when oil prices were coming down. You have to understand what you are holding.


Price:
$13.930
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-13 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Interest rates. The Fed will raise interest rates this week. Friday’s payroll was pretty decent, so there is no room for them not to go. Three rate hikes are pretty much priced in to the Fed Fund’s curve out to the end of the year. If we go into Europe and European elections, Netherlands actually starts this week, but we are really looking at the French election as the key one, April 23-May 7. If Marie Le Pen wins the election, that is going to be very destabilizing globally, far more than BREXIT, far more than the US election, and far more than the Italian election. We haven’t seen any impact from British breaking trade agreements with the EU, other than the weakening of the British pound. If France decides to leave the EU, and it goes back to the French franc, the whole European project begins to come apart. BREXIT was a warning shot across the bow, and this would be breaking it apart. If it is not this one, maybe it is the Italian election, sometime within the next year. If one of these goes extreme right wing it is going to start falling apart. That is what he is really worried about. The US economy, for all its ills, is still the strongest economy in the world. The restructuring that Trump is trying to put into place should be very, very good in the long run. There is lots of execution risk. We are now hearing Congress may not go for these trade deals, it has to be revenue neutral for tax cuts, etc., thus execution risk for the next couple of quarters We just have to be cautious on the markets.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
_N/A
2017-03-13 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Oil. Hedge funds may be a bit too long on oil. Tom McClellan points out that the “net short” position of the commercials, the opposite side of the speculators, are very net short; in fact, the most “net short” since oil was over $100, and they are the smart money. The speculators are on the other side of this trade. There is probably some more downside to go here. It could push oil down to the low $40s, as those positions unwind. $40-$60 is probably the range for the next couple of years.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
_N/A
2017-03-13 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Why would bank stocks lose value when interest rates are increased? This isn’t necessarily so. The general perception is that if interest rates go up, their revenues are going to rise which would make them more profitable. It really has to do with interest rate differentials. Banks tend to borrow Short and lend Long. It’s the shape of the yield curve that matters. Typically, the bulk of the lending is going to be in the 5-year range, the home equity lines of credit, the corporate mortgages, commercial mortgages. So it’s Short term rates versus Long-term rates, and if that curve is actually flattening, that means margins get compressed by the Banks. It depends on why interest rates are rising. Are they rising because the economy is taking off and inflation expectations are growing, in which case your yield curve steepening; or is it rising because the Fed is tightening and maybe too much, causing a perception that the economy is going to slow down, and therefore your yield curve is flattening, which would affect bank profits negatively.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
_N/A
2017-03-13 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Gold? He was buying gold mid December, and sold out at the beginning of January and February. Last week, for the 1st time, he started nibbling again. He’s been buying pullbacks as a general rule. Doesn’t think gold stocks are going to see the major resistance of last summer of $1350-$1400 any more, so he is inclined to range trade it. What is going to force gold up are bits and pieces of inflation, flight to safety, supply and demand. When it dips below $1200 you Buy, and up above $1300-$1350, you Sell.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-13 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Canadian dollar in 3-6 months? A big factor is what oil prices are going to do. What is the spread between interest rates between Canada and the US going to do? Those of the 2 biggest factors. If you look at positioning right now, it is very similar to the oil story. Speculators and the futures market, are long the Cdn$ because they believe oil is going to do well, so there is room here for the Cdn$ to sell off.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
_N/A
2017-03-13 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment: Market Drawdowns. What he calls “market noise” is a 5% correction or less. He looked at the peaks and the lowest lows in a 4-year business cycle since 1920. Looking at the drawdowns over the years, you can see the great depression, where 86% was the drawdown in US large caps. We’ve had several in the 50% range. However, the average surprisingly was 13.4%, and the average was only 10 months long. You tend to get a 5%-13% correction at least once a year, so it is pretty normal to get volatility in the markets. Drawing down a little further, he has a one-year version, which shows that we get more frequent declines. The interesting thing is, if we are down 13.4% from the previous peak, and we look out one year knowing that the bear decline is about 10 months, this is the time to start investing, to get aggressive once the markets are down. Your forward returns go up exponentially from a low point, compared to putting money to work at a high point. We are probably due for a downturn that is going to be about 24% at some point in the next year or 2, so he is playing defence because of that. Once we are down 13.4%, he’ll be thinking about buying.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
_N/A
2017-03-13 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart HHL-T Healthcare Leaders Income Fund

This invests in healthcare related securities, and believes the enhancement comes from an option strategy overlay. Like any other sector, this is fine when it is going up. This ETF tends to have a lot of volatility compared to some of the others. He doesn’t use this, so doesn’t know that much about it. It’s a fine product and he has no issues with it. It has a pretty significant yield, which tends to be what attracts a lot of people. Dividend yield of 8%+ right now.


Price:
$8.460
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
No
Showing 1 to 30 of 2,201 entries
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1 Comment

raziel

April 3rd 2015 at 8:48am

My preferrers have come down substantially as a result of lowered bank rates, I believe. Shouldn't an instrument with a fixed rate go UP when bank rates are lowered?


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