Viewing Expert Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA | StockChase
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Compiling comments that experts make about stocks while on public TV.

Viewing Expert

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA , Chief Investment Officer, Partner

ETF Capital Management Inc.

Address
5160 Yonge St. Suite 1860
Toronto, ON
M2N 6L9

Contact Info
Telephone: 888-383-9753
Fax: 888-383-9753
Website: http://www.etfcm.com


Date Signal Chart Symbol Company Opinion Price
2017-10-23 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Market.  He expects a big week in earnings.  FNG-N has all the FANG stocks that are reporting this week.  You had a pretty big run up and then some weakness.  His gut feel is that we should get a bit of a sell-the-news action.  He likes the idea of diversification and this is a very niche ETF.  He feels the FED will continue to step on the breaks and try to raise interest rates.  The ECB is doing the same thing.  It will be a challenge over the next year.  It is the beginning of the unwind for them.  He does not have a strong feeling to sell Europe at present, though.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-10-23 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

The long term implication of an inverted yield curve.  Prior to every recession we ever had we saw an inverted yield curve.  It forecasts a recession well out from the present.  We should get a bounce short term in the curve but longer term we should get an inversion.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-10-23 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Sleep at night portfolios (mutual finds Larry manages for BMO).  Some combination of the three will fit most people’s portfolios.  The global dividend fund is suitable for most people.  The global balanced fund is currently yielding about 4%.  All three manage risk when it comes up.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2017-10-23 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  Seasonality.  The seasonal pattern has not worked this year (Sell in May and Go Away).  There was no market correction in Sept./Oct.  Since we did not get a correction you might say we will not get much of a seasonal impact for the rest of the year.  He looked into history and over 30 years in years where we did not get that seasonal correction, the market just continued up and the seasonality in November December is even stronger, although sometimes the correction is just later in the year.  Seasonality is just one factor to incorporate into your investing decisions.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-10-23 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart EUFN-Q iShares MSCI Europe Financial

EUFN-N vs. ZWE-T.  EUFN-N is an interesting way to get exposure to European banks.  The risk is that the European recovery does not take hold.  It appears the world is recovering and that the banks are a good place to be, although his outlook longer term is not great on them, and so he does not recommend it.  He sees more risk than not.  Otherwise, it is a good way to play European banks.  He prefers ZWE-T for the yield and the covered calls to lower risk.


Price:
$23.150
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-10-23 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart XID-T iShares CNX Nifty India

XID-T vs. ZID-T.  A Difference in Tax Treatment?  With a Canadian based ETF holding US ETFs subject to US withholding tax you can get double withholdings.  He suggests asking the ETF provider what the tax consequences are for holding their funds in your Canadian account.


Price:
$34.200
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-10-23 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZID-T BMO India Equity Hedged to CAD ETF

XID-T vs. ZID-T.  A Difference in Tax Treatment?  With a Canadian based ETF holding US ETFs subject to US withholding tax you can get double withholdings.  He suggests asking the ETF provider what the tax consequences are for holding their funds in your Canadian account.


Price:
$22.290
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-10-23 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZWE-T BMO Europe High Dividend Covered Call Hedged to CAD ET

EUFN-N vs. ZWE-T.  EUFN-N is an interesting way to get exposure to European banks.  The risk is that the European recovery does not take hold.  It appears the world is recovering and that the banks are a good place to be, although his outlook longer term is not great on them, and so he does not recommend it.  He sees more risk than not.  Otherwise, it is a good way to play European banks.  He prefers ZWE-T for the yield and the covered calls to lower risk.


Price:
$22.230
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2017-10-23 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZWU-T BMO Covered Call Utilities ETF

The .U units are in US$ and not a lot of people are using them.  Its liquidity is that of the underlying securities.  The market maker creates more units as required.  There is no need to worry about liquidity just because the ETF is thinly traded.


Price:
$14.000
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-10-16 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Market.  US earnings are starting on a so-so footing.  The banks started off and given the low volatility of the market, trading volumes were lower than expected.  Revenue growth year over year was not as great as expected so markets were soft.  Banks’ profitability is based on the yield curve and so he does not get excited about the rising interest rate environment because the yield curve is getting flattened.  If you add three more rate hikes, by Q3, we get an inverted yield curve and that predicts recession in 2019.  He does not want to chase markets higher.  Defense is called for.  We are in the worse seasonal period of the year and yet markets have gone higher.  Mid to end of October is historically the worst part of this.  He is waiting for today’s unveiling of the new income tax changes in Canada.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-10-16 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Currency.  If people sell the dollar, where is the other side of that trade?  The Canadian dollar is not big enough for the sale of US dollars.  The Euro can’t be because the Euro will break up soon.  The Japanese Yen is a possibility and he does not think we will see a flight to Chinese Yuan.  Don’t worry about the dollar.  It is not going anywhere any time soon.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-10-16 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  Richard Thaler won a Nobel price.  He is the best behavioral economist.  He spends a lot of time trying to get through to viewers and teach them how to make a better investment decision.  Richard is best known for the endowment effect where you value something overly when you already own.  You are reluctant to sell it below what you bought it at.  Even utility bills are giving you little nudges to help you make better decisions in the use of your energy. 


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-10-16 BUY Must be logged in to use chart HXDM-T Horizons Intl Developed Markets Equity Index ETF.

It is a very good strategy.  They don’t own the stocks but buy a derivate (futures based swap contract) so you don’t get a tax withholding.  This is an advantage in taxable accounts.  It’s only been out a short while.  It is a very good product for people focusing on tax efficiency.


Price:
$32.100
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-10-16 WEAK BUY Must be logged in to use chart MA-N Mastercard Inc.

When the consumer is at risk, such as in an economic slowdown, it is this one that underperforms.  When the economy performs well and credit is building it does well.  He is cautious right now.  He thinks it is extended and is late cycle.  This is a payment processor and not a lender.  Non-payment risk goes to the underlying financial institutions.


Price:
$146.220
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-10-16 HOLD Must be logged in to use chart MFI-T Maple Leaf Foods

There is some short term resistance.  There is nothing wrong technically.  He would be concerned if we took out the lows from the last couple of months.  The long term trend line looks good.  He is not concerned right now.


Price:
$33.290
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-10-16 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart PD-T Precision Drilling

The energy sector is challenged.  He has owned this one on and off over the years.  When there is potential growth in drilling this is a go to stock.  It seems the lack of pipelines out of Canada will be a problem.  This stock will probably not have a material rally.  If we have a regime change in 2019 and there is more openness to pipelines we get a change.


Price:
$3.270
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-10-16 WATCH Must be logged in to use chart XBB-T iShares DEX Universe Bond ETF

The broad Canadian bond market.  The interest rate risk on the broader market is at 7 which mean if we see a 100 basis point increase in interest rates, you will lose about 7% in terms of capital.  It is not time to step in yet.  If interest rates went up 25 basis points then it would be time to move in.  Don’t extend duration until interest rates go up a little but.


Price:
$30.780
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-10-16 BUY on WEAKNESS Must be logged in to use chart ZPR-T BMO S&P/TSX Laddered Preferred

Laddered preferreds.  They do well in rising interest rate environments.  Fundamentally it is not cheap here.  He got a lot a year ago.  He does not like the relative value here.  He would buy into weakness on a pull pack.  That could happen in December.


Price:
$11.790
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2017-10-02 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Market.  Market expectations on tax reform were for nothing getting done.  Now it looks like they will put all their weight in getting a tax package done.  Whatever they get done should be disappointing and we should get a sell-the-news reaction.  Over the last three months earnings revisions have gone down on the S&P.  Canadian tax changes will mean nothing to markets initially but over the long term it may discourage the Canadian entrepreneur.  The government of Spain may fall as a region tries to separate but markets are not reacting.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-10-02 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

CAD$.  On the rate hike front, the BOC is more likely to match the US Fed.  He would not look for an October move -- December maybe.  In the next 6 months the CAD$ will go from 79 to 83 cents.  Below 80 cents he wants to be hedged.  He is fully hedged today.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-10-02 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Bitcoin.  Governments don’t control it.  He believes we are moving to electronic-only currencies globally.  He does not think governments will allow alternative currencies with unlimited amounts in circulation.  Electronic currency gets rid of the gray economy.  GBTC-N is a speculative instrument. 


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-10-02 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

He has been cautious for a year and a half.  There are defensive things you can do.  He runs portfolios with half the risk of the general market using covered call strategies, for example.  Make sure you are globally diversified.  Don’t sit in cash and wait for a pullback.  It may be 2019 before we get a pullback. 


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-10-02 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  (weekly series) What Investor Personality Are You?:  4. The Independent.  A lot of behavioral learning has been incorporated into the body of knowledge.  The independent is a BNN watcher, reads the paper and is interested in being involved in the investing.  These investors are susceptible to a self attribution bias – they take credit if it works and blame the other guy if it doesn’t.  It causes portfolios to be concentrated.  They should focus on diversification. 


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-10-02 BUY on WEAKNESS Must be logged in to use chart ATD.B-T Alimentation Couche-Tard (B)

MRU-T will sell some of their 10% holding in ATD.B-T in an orderly way.  The stock price leveled out over the last couple of years.  He would like it if it pulled back a little.  The forward looking PE is 17, a little high.  He would not buy it today while this M&A is going on.


Price:
$57.830
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-10-02 HOLD Must be logged in to use chart HSE-T Husky Energy

Oil is probably $50 plus or minus $10 for some time.  HSE-T over the last year peaked when oil was in the mid-$50s.  It is priced for $50 oil at present.  We are in the middle of its trading range.  He has been lightening up a little on oil recently.


Price:
$15.580
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-10-02 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZPH-T BMO US Put Write Hedged to CAD

ZWE-T vs. ZPH-T.  ZPH-T is the put write strategy.  If we have an acute sell off, both will lose a little money.  If you are branching outside of Canada, there is no dividend tax credit, but put write gives additional income.  He recommends having a bit of both in order to diversify.  Europe is a bit more attractive over the next couple of years.


Price:
$19.700
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-10-02 WAIT Must be logged in to use chart ZWB-T BMO Covered Call Cdn Banks ETF

Equal weighted Canadian bank covered call strategy.  Banks should settle into a trading range over the next couple of years so buy low and sell high.  Wait until it pulls back.  You could trim your position right now.


Price:
$18.850
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-10-02 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZWE-T BMO Europe High Dividend Covered Call Hedged to CAD ET

ZWE-T vs. ZPH-T.  ZPH-T is the put write strategy.  If we have an acute sell off, both will lose a little money.  If you are branching outside of Canada, there is no dividend tax credit, but put write gives additional income.  He recommends having a bit of both in order to diversify.  Europe is a bit more attractive over the next couple of years.


Price:
$22.140
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-09-25 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  Trump was not focused on North Korea over the weekend in Tweets.  But North Korea is suggesting that previous tweets were a declaration of war.  Markets have dropped slightly.  At some point the market wakes up.  In Germany, Merkel was re-elected but with fewer votes.  The Euro has dropped.  Governing in Germany is going to me more difficult.  Eventually the European project starts to break apart.  The risk factor is there.  Unwinding of countries’ balance sheets is another market risk present.  Caution should prevail in the markets right now.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-09-25 WATCH Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Lithium ETF Recommendation.  LIT-N has had a great run up and is tremendously over bought.  He would wait for a pull back into the low $30s before buying.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-09-25 BUY Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Fang Stocks ETF Recommendation.  FNG-N.  See his educational segment today.  When we go into ‘Risk Off’ you will see a lot of profit taking happening.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-09-25 BUY Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Sleep At Night Portfolio.  He nick-named the portfolios he began running for BMO-T about 4 years ago.  He still believes in these very much. 


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2017-09-25 WATCH Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

ETF in AI Category.  BOTZ-N and ROBO-N.  They have had a phenomenal run up and are probably over done a bit at this point.  Japan has a significant weight.  It will be an investment theme for decades to come.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-09-25 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  (weekly series) What Investor Personality Are You?:  3. The Follower.  Typically are interested in markets but don’t know a lot and are most interested in looking for a ‘tip’.  Their portfolios don’t have a lot of construction or diversification.  They suffer from regret aversion and hindsight bias.  They won’t make a lot of their own decisions.  The FANG stocks have a lot of these.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-09-25 WATCH Must be logged in to use chart CBO-T iShares 1-5 yr Ladder Corp Bond ETF

A laddered bond portfolio.  He likes it.  Each ETF provider’s version has had bad performance over the last few months because short term yields are seen as rising.  The risk is if the BOC is more aggressively tightening.  You want to wait until after the next announcement when there may be another pull back and then perhaps get in.


Price:
$18.500
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-09-25 WATCH Must be logged in to use chart IMO-T Imperial Oil

IMO-T vs. XOM-N.  Oil is not going to take off in a big way but he has been buying oil on weakness over the last while.  However he is now thinking of reducing his weight in oil.  Now is not the time to step in.  He would tend to stick with Canadian because of currency risk.  They are getting over bought.


Price:
$39.550
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-09-25 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart XOM-N Exxon Mobil

IMO-T vs. XOM-N.  Oil is not going to take off in a big way but he has been buying oil on weakness over the last while.  However he is now thinking of reducing his weight in oil.  Now is not the time to step in.  He would tend to stick with Canadian because of currency risk.  They are getting over bought.


Price:
$80.980
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-09-25 BUY Must be logged in to use chart ZPW-T BMO US Put Write ETF.

Writes put options across many sectors.  The decline over the summer was all currency.  You might want to go to ZPH-T if the dollar gets down to a $0.80 dollar.  It has not had the down move of ZPW-T.


Price:
$17.650
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-09-25 HOLD Must be logged in to use chart ZWH-T BMO US High Dividend Covered Call ETF

The decline over the summer was all currency.  If North Korea escalates, the US$ could shoot up and then you would get an increase in the ETF.


Price:
$19.700
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-09-18 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  Everyone is wanting to buy into dips but the markets keeps grinding higher.  He does not think the valuations are attractive however.  Quantitative tightening could be negative for markets.  It is huge to the markets that Trump brings tax reform.  Perhaps we will get a ‘sell the news’ impact. 


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-09-18 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Infrastructure ETF recommendation.  He is not sure there is one that is hedged to the Canadian dollar.  A lot of ETFs leave out the engineering companies.  ZGI-T and CIF-T are two Canadian ETFs but are not hedged.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-09-18 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

A full cost mutual fund is probably 2.5-3% cost.  You get active management.  An index ETF is lower cost but you don’t get the active management.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-09-18 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  (weekly series) What Investor Personality Are You?:  2. The Preserver / Conservative.  They have typically done well in their business or career and have always been conservative.  As they get older they get TOO conservative.  They tend to have more fixed income.  Over the last 30 years they would get 6-7% returns.  Over the next 10 years you are looking at a return of 2.5% before fees with higher risk.  He does not think you can re-think what kind of investor you are. 


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-09-18 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Move mutual funds to a Canadian Bank ETFs? It is not a good idea to concentrate your portfolio into one sector.  You should be globally diversified also.  ZWU-T gives you utilities and telcos.  It is 20% global.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-09-18 HOLD Must be logged in to use chart C-N CitiGroup

It is one of the most global banks we have.  It is not his favourite bank to own.  On a valuation basis there is probably upside, but these banks could easily get cut in half if we ever get a correction.


Price:
$70.600
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-09-18 BUY Must be logged in to use chart PYF-T Purpose Premium Yield Fund

He loves the strategy.  They are consistently taking in yield in the fund and then pay out 6%.  The US exposure has hurt them a little over the last year.  Option strategy premiums are lower at the moment.


Price:
$19.200
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2017-09-18 HOLD Must be logged in to use chart ZEO-T BMO S&P/TSX Oil & Gas ETF

In the next couple of months there may be a little more upside.  At the beginning of the year the stocks were overpriced.  He is going to trim when it gets back to the high end of its trading range.  Don’t add to it now but you could buy on pullbacks.


Price:
$10.500
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2017-09-11 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  Hurricane Irma has been downgraded, North Korea did not proliferate into something worse and so markets have rallied.  The back to back hurricanes you don’t see every day.  The hit to GDP could be greater.  100 Billion to fix things is just 5% of GDP and this is not good growth, although it is growth.  Prayers and wishes to those that have suffered through those however.  The CAD$ and the sudden shift to a more hawkish tone with the US backing off their rate hike expectations has had a dynamic shift in the currencies.  He projects the CAD$ up to 84 cents.  He wants US$ exposure.  The BOC surprised him as he did not expect increased rates.  If the CDU/CSU wins another term in Europe that will probably be good.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-09-11 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  (weekly series) What Investor Personality Are You?: 1. The Accumulator.  They have a confidence bias in what they do, but make common mistakes in investing because they believe they can control the outcome of the markets.  If you are a growth investor and focused on maximizing returns, you have to be aware you will have challenges.  E.g. AMZN-Q.  A compounded return of 37.5%.  When you look at all the ups and downs, look at the amounts.  You have to assume more volatility during corrections.  You have to ask if it is appreciate for you as an investor.  You have to be willing to sit tight every couple of years with a 30-50% correction.  You can’t get in and out repeatedly.  You have to understand what your emotional response will be.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-09-11 WEAK BUY Must be logged in to use chart DOL-T Dollarama Inc.

The $15 minimum wage.  Larry knows someone who owns some Tim Horton’s locations that may go under because of this.  You have to look at what the percentage of wages at DOL-T to find out what the impact is, although there will be one for sure.  The $3 and $4 merchandise is growing things.  He is a value investor and when a stock is at a huge multiple, he is not the right guy to ask about it.  Technically it is overbought.  He expects it to continue going.  You continue to trail your stop up around the trailing one month average.


Price:
$134.560
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-09-11 BUY Must be logged in to use chart ENB-T Enbridge

He likes the pipelines generally.  Over 5 years we came from much lower levels.  There is a lot of resistance now.  You will not see a sustainable move above those levels from $100 oil.  There is value down into the low $40s.  It has a good dividend yield.  He likes the ZWU-T because it also has telcos and other regular type utilities and has a 6%+ yield.


Price:
$49.550
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-09-11 BUY Must be logged in to use chart HOG-T Horizons Cdn Midstream Oil & Gas Index

He likes the services and mid stream sector.  They have a lot of leverage to the upside, but good dividends also.  Drillers are cheap right now.  Pipelines are closer to their highs than their lows.  This is a diversified way to play. 


Price:
$8.960
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-09-11 HOLD Must be logged in to use chart U-T Uranium Participation Corp.

Uranium.  The Japan disaster changed the world’s view on uranium.  There is a reactor in South Florida that they are worried about.  He thought Uranium would be part of the clean solution for power.  India and China are building them, but there is a bias to moving away from them.  There is no shortage of Uranium.  It is on the cheap side now so don’t look for too much in term of growth.


Price:
$3.680
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-09-11 BUY Must be logged in to use chart ZBK-T BMO Equal Weight US Banks ETF

US Financials ETF?  Banks insurance companies, etc.  The list is too long to mention.  The US financial regional banks have underperformed relative to the broader market.  Get an ETF like ZUB-T that is hedged.  He thinks these are attractive.  ZBK-T gives you exposure unhedged in US$.


Price:
$21.520
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-09-11 BUY Must be logged in to use chart ZPW-T BMO US Put Write ETF.

It writes puts 15-20% below current levels to harvest a 6-8% yield.  It has been at the low end of that.  The entire decline in valuation this year is about the increase in the CAD$, not because the underlying holdings have any problem.  ZPH-T is the identical holdings, but not exposed to the US$.  He likes adding US$ here.  Swap to ZPH-T if we get back to an $0.80 CAD$.


Price:
$17.310
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-09-11 BUY Must be logged in to use chart ZUB-T BMO Equal Weight US Banks Hedged to CAD ETF

US Financials ETF?  Banks insurance companies, etc.  The list is too long to mention.  The US financial regional banks have underperformed relative to the broader market.  Get an ETF like ZUB-T that is hedged.  He thinks these are attractive.  ZBK-T gives you exposure unhedged in US$.


Price:
$25.110
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-09-11 BUY Must be logged in to use chart ZWH-T BMO US High Dividend Covered Call ETF

This is how he takes his position in the US market.  He has started adding his US exposure back after hedging previously.  ZWH-T does not have a currency hedge version.


Price:
$19.010
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-08-28 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  The hurricane has an impact on the gas refining industry.  Gas prices are reacting today.  We are 6.5% above average inventory levels.  He does not think we will get a big shoot up like decades ago with Katrina.  XLE-T is showing nothing today.  He would have expected a premium, but today we are actually down.  Supply and demand are more important from a market perspective.  The seasonal pattern for the TSX over 30 years:  We are going into the worst season of the year, from now until mid October or so.  The challenge he has this year is that the TSX has not played out as it normally does year to date.  He thinks the stocks have already reacted so the seasonal pullback should be muted this year.  He sees gold as remaining in the trading range, rather than breaking out in a big way.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-08-28 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

ETFs and a Securities Price Bubble.  Before ETFs the money was in mutual funds.  ETFs are not the cause or the issue.  ETFs are an efficient vehicle for exposure.  His only issue is that if you buy an index ETF you are also buy the bad companies that are in it.  An active ETF is picking the good companies.  Before ETFs, in a pull back, people redeemed mutual funds.  In a selloff now selling ETFs is no different than redeeming mutual funds except that it does not all wait until the end of the day.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-08-28 BUY Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Canadian Dollar $.  We are back up to the extremes at the beginning of the month.  The next technical level is at $0.83, but what is the catalyst to make the CAD$ stronger?  There is the price of oil, interest rate differential and sentiment around what the BOC is going to do.  We are in a trading range.  He is backing up the truck to own US$ in his portfolio.  The trading range will continue for at least the next 6 months.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2017-08-28 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

S&P Seasonality. In the US we have not seen the same divergence as Canada.  Seasonality, if it comes into play, should have more down draft than in Canada. 


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-08-28 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  Where Equity Markets Returns have come from.  Going back to 1970, real return has been 6.3%.  Breaking that down, dividends have been 3.4% points.  Margin and multiple expansion have been 0.5% and 0.1% percentage points.  But in the last 7 years those last two factors have been the most significant.  A 7-year forecast shows a loss of 3.9 on US large caps vs. a gain of 2.9% on emerging markets.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-08-28 WATCH Must be logged in to use chart CVE-T Cenovus Energy

Lower lows and lower highs, it is down, down, down.  The whole energy space is challenged for the next number of years.  We had a pull back.  He thinks there is value here.  It could take 6 months or a year before we realize that value.  This company has company specific risk.  He does not know if the deal they are going to do will be accretive or trouble like the market thinks.  You need to see the trend stop going down.  We might have some support coming in here.  If it holds and we take out some intermediate highs of a few weeks ago, you can gain confidence that the bottom is in.


Price:
$9.210
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-08-28 STRONG BUY Must be logged in to use chart FIH.U-T Fairfax India Holdings Corp

An actively managed basket of Indian stocks.  There is higher cost from the active management and from an index ETF.  In the long run the currency has dragged a little on your returns.  He thinks it will stabilize going forward.  He thinks this will be a fantastic growth area of the world.


Price:
$17.250
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-08-28 SELL Must be logged in to use chart TECK.B-T Teck Resources Ltd. (B)

He says sell!  When commodity prices were high and we were bullish about Chinese growth, the stock was $40-$60 when it was firing on all cylinders.  He does not think we are going back to that.  We already rallied back to the $34 area.  He is a better seller than a buyer.


Price:
$31.260
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-08-28 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZPW-T BMO US Put Write ETF.

It is exposed to the US$.  There is a hedged version (ZPH-T).  It finds the best quality US companies across all 10 sectors and then it writes puts 10-15% below market and harvests the yield.  When volatility is low, as it has been previous in the year, you can’t generate as high a yield.  The entire down move we saw is because of the strengthening of the CAD$.


Price:
$17.780
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-08-21 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets. We are not expecting to get a statement on central banks unwinding quantitative easing, but rather tightening. We are expecting to hear, however, how they are planning to unwind their balance sheets in the future. The markets are starting to respond to some of these negatives. Japan has a deeply struggling economy. They are buying equities and bonds.  He thinks we are heading down the path of what Japan has had to do.  This is playing out over decades. It has to do with the aging demographic.  Bannon out of the Whitehouse: he was the worst part of the election process.  It bought all the worst to the surface including hate.  He is not sure it will fix anything, but it is a step in the right direction.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-08-21 BUY Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Smart ETFs.  In the BMO world they have two niche areas.  (1) Low volatility, low beta.  (2) A couple of years they got into the quality factor space.  When you pay a fee you expect them to pick the best quality companies.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2017-08-21 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

A Correction. Volatility is at an all time high in the US.  We get corrections all the time.  He has never said we are going to have a 30-40% bear market, however last year from 2015 highs to lows in 2016, small caps were down 20% in the US so that is a pretty material correction.  We have not had a broad correction in a long time.  Calling a top is hard and he never does that.  He says he is concerned and it is time to shift the portfolio to more defensive stocks, and ETFs that use covered call strategies.  It is about asset allocation and sector diversification.  Nobody knows when the top is in.  He does not like what he sees over the next couple of years and so is defensive in the way he runs his portfolios.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-08-21 BUY Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Pipeline ETFs.  His favourite way to play utilities is ZWU-T, 80% Canada and 20% US.  It has generators, telecoms and pipelines. It has a covered call overlay, enhancing the yield. It is very diversified over the couple of sectors.  He prefers this to picking individual pipelines.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2017-08-21 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  Financial Astrology.  A study that went back to look for correlation between solar eclipses and stock market performance said that there is none.  There are all kinds of financial astrologers.  One newsletter makes market calls off astrology and he does not give it weight.  There are all kinds of academic studies. The more sun there is the better markets do. There is correlation, but not causation.  That is the ultimate question. There is a guy who correlates full moons to markets with the idea of disproving any and correlation he could not disprove it. Gold tends to either change or accelerate in a full moon.  He recommends you don’t pay attention to it. Markets like wheat and corn are influenced by weather which is influenced by tides and those by the moon, so you have to be careful of that.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-08-21 BUY on WEAKNESS Must be logged in to use chart GILD-Q Gilead Sciences Inc.

It has broken out of the 200 day moving average recently.  As long as during any pull back that it holds the 200 and 70 day moving averages, we could expect to see some improvement.  We could bounce up to about $80 before we struggle again.  If it does not hold the $70 then get out.


Price:
$72.600
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-08-21 BUY on WEAKNESS Must be logged in to use chart IPL-T Inter Pipeline

You have to go back a couple of years to look for support.  The lows in the low $20s should be good long term support.  We could get down there.  Don’t buy a stock just for the yield.  There are risks like the IPL-T spill that come along.  He would add to it here.  Resistance would be about $30.


Price:
$22.350
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-08-21 BUY on WEAKNESS Must be logged in to use chart SHOP-T Shopify Inc.

It is tremendously volatile.  We had a pop a number of months ago.  He suggested at the time that you start playing with options.  This might be just a consolidation.  He is cautious on this one.  Buy into weakness, but don’t chase breakouts, although that is just part of his style of investing.  If it breaks support you have to think it is heading into a lower area.


Price:
$121.150
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-08-14 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  We are seeing an equity rebound as we saw nothing over the weekend.  Nobody knows what the odds are of a much larger correction.  If you look at the Cuban Missile Crisis, the market was down over 20%.  This is the best example that is similar to the North Korean Issue.  In all likelihood we are not going to get to the crisis, but the markets may react.  Europe has started to underperform because of the strength of the Euro.  Their index hit a key technical level last week.  (See UUP-N).  In all likelihood the US$ gets a technical bounce.  He thinks we will settle into a new trading range.  The Canadian dollar will probably not get too much stronger than it is now.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-08-14 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Education Segment.  Market Sell-Offs.  Every time we get a pullback we make a higher low followed by a higher high in the S&P.  The Russell 2000 has been testing support.  Until it breaks $133 we won’t have a technical breakdown.  The average stock is weakening, but it is not until the market breaks support that we will have a problem.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-08-14 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ALA-T Altagas Ltd

There is some regulatory uncertainty as to whether their acquisition in the US will go through.  The drop in stock price has boosted the yield.  He thinks you are pretty close to the bottom so there is a value element to it.


Price:
$27.980
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-08-14 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart DFN-T Dividend 15 Split Corp.

Banks, insurance companies, pipelines – all the big dividend payers.  He does not mind owning any of these things.  It is diversified among a couple of sectors.  He has no strong opinion either way.  Not a bad buy below $11.


Price:
$10.740
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-08-14 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart GE-N General Electric

It is down this year where as the DOW is up, so there is something wrong with it.  Generally they track closely, but now they have diverged massively.  Sometimes GE-N leads the DOW so could be indicating a general market correction.  ZIN-T is an equal weight industrials in Canada and would be an alternative.  It’s rather like a GE-N.


Price:
$25.360
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-08-14 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart XCV-T iShares DJ Canadian Value ETF

XCV-T vs. XEI-T.  XEI-T is a high dividend strategy.  XCV-T is a value approach.  XEI-T has 24% exposures to each of pipelines and banks.  XCV-T has 31% in banks and oil/gas at 16% and these are the major differences.  Neither one is particularly good value, but he would go for XEI-T at the moment.


Price:
$24.970
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-08-14 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart XEI-T iShares S&P/TSX Equity Income

XCV-T vs. XEI-T.  XEI-T is a high dividend strategy.  XCV-T is a value approach.  XEI-T has 24% exposures to each of pipelines and banks.  XCV-T has 31% in banks and oil/gas at 16% and these are the major differences.  Neither one is particularly good value, but he would go for XEI-T at the moment.


Price:
$21.050
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-08-14 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart XTR-T iShares Diversified Monthly IF ETF

He loves the ETF because it gives you a balanced fund, is diversified, and has 20% US exposure in the high yield market.  It yields about 5.5% to 6% so you are getting a payout of capital.  You have to think about bond yields and credit risk and how they might increase.  Think of it as a Canadian balanced fund.  He prefers ZWC-T because it is covered call premium and not payout of capital that gets the yield up to where it is.


Price:
$11.270
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-08-14 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZWH-T BMO US High Dividend Covered Call ETF

There is a US version that trades in US currency, but he does not believe there is any difference in the tax treatment of them. 


Price:
$19.700
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-07-31 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  The earnings season has been pretty impressive so far.  To the degree there is financial engineering and the pricing off of proforma earnings, he is concerned.  The true value investors do not see a lot of value here.  This is a momentum and growth market.  He thinks valuations are high and we are at a risk of correction, as he has been saying for half a year now.  He is impressed with what corporations are doing here, however.  We saw the Fed talk about unwinding QE.  The bank of Japan is talking about not being as simulative and well as the bank of England.  We have seen a dramatic 10% move in the Canadian dollar.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-07-31 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Inverse Market ETFs.  It depends on your overall portfolio and risk tolerance.  Since November the markets have gone straight up.  HIU-T is an example.  He is still net short the US market, but it is hard to make money.  You can make money hedging the currency, however.  It is always important to diversify even if that one thing is not working today.  At some point we will get a little bit of a dip.  Seasonality-wise this is not the time to cover shorts.  It will happen sometime through October.  You might write a call on top of the ETF to enhance returns over time.  He has no fundamental objection to single inverse ETFs, but he does to the leveraged ones.  The singles do not eat way into the NAV.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-07-31 BUY Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Gold should always be a part of everyone’s portfolios.  It does not produce any income, but some ETFs give you some income.  At this level he likes gold, but does not love it.  The high might be $1350 in 6 months.  5% is a good holding right now in your portfolio.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-07-31 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  How to Play the Canadian Dollar in Coming Months.  People are paying more and more attention to currencies.  In early 2015 Canada surprised us by lowering interest rates.  Now they have raised them.  It has had a meaningful impact on the Canadian dollar.  There are three factors for currency decisions:  (a) Oil prices (inverse); (b) Interest rate differential between CAD and US 2 year rate; (c) Net speculative positions in the Canadian dollar.  Oil could potentially move us up if it went up, but there are only a couple of months of potential increases left in this year.  We have probably seen the high end of the Canadian dollar last week.  It should settle into $.77.  He is playing it as a being in a new trading range.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-07-31 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart HBF-T Brand Leaders Plus Income

It is a brand leader.  It looks a lot like the DOW and is quite correlated to it.  It is more of an equally weighted way to play it and there are some option strategies within it.


Price:
$8.860
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-07-31 BUY Must be logged in to use chart ZPW-T BMO US Put Write ETF.

He talked about swapping out ZPW-T a while back, but now he likes it with the stronger CAD $.  ZPH-T gives you hedging and you would eventually swap back into it.


Price:
$17.830
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-07-31 BUY Must be logged in to use chart ZWE-T BMO Europe High Dividend Covered Call Hedged to CAD ET

European ETF.  The yield is down because the covered call premiums are low right now due to low volatility.  EUR-T is an alternative.  PRD and RPDH are alternatives also.  Europe is underperforming a little bit because the Euro is getting strong and they are exporting a lot.


Price:
$21.550
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-07-31 HOLD Must be logged in to use chart ZWH-T BMO US High Dividend Covered Call ETF

It is like ZWE-T.  It finds the best quality or dividend payers.  We have seen a dramatic decline recently because of the Canadian dollar.  He likes the US exposure.  Don’t get out of it.


Price:
$19.380
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-07-10 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets. The expectation is for less than double digit earnings in the quarter, He is going to be looking for whether they will be making the year or not.  The markets are very much about rotation and they are stable as a whole.  He is a bit nervous, but things seem to be holding in.  Everywhere except Japan wants to ease on stimulus.  He is expecting economic growth to slow and interest rates to rise slightly.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-07-10 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Education segment.  The Role of Gold in your Portfolio.  Gold has been selling off quite a bit.  The best opportunities are when gold is going down.  It is a great diversifier, but it yields nothing so it is hard to hold it in your portfolio.  If you look at the correlation between gold and other asset classes, some have no relation and some are very correlated.  Gold has high correlation with currencies.  The total world index has very low correlation to gold.  VT-N compared to GLD-N have various correlations through time.  TLT-N is more correlated to GLD-N so it represents less diversification.  He is looking at buying gold here.  If gold breaks below $1200 we will see some panic selling and that is the time to look at accumulating.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2017-07-10 SELL ON STRENGTH Must be logged in to use chart CPD-T iShares S&P/TSX Preferred ETF

A basket of preferred stocks, a lot of them being resets.  He has been a net seller of the BMO version late last week.  He would continue to be a seller into strength.  You could buy into pullbacks.  It is unlikely we will break out of the range.


Price:
$14.110
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2017-07-10 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart HMMJ-T Horizon's Medical Marijuana

You get diversification.  Who knows which stocks are going to be the .coms of the weed industry?  There is still some downside to come in this industry. 


Price:
$8.390
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-07-10 HOLD Must be logged in to use chart SHOP-T Shopify Inc.

There is a sort of a head and shoulders pattern and now we have made a lower high and a lower low, so the trend is breaking.  At $110 there is big support.  If we break that then we should come back to the next area of big support at $60.  Just sit back and watch it.


Price:
$117.460
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-07-10 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZWE-T BMO Europe High Dividend Covered Call Hedged to CAD ET

How does Larry make a major buy of an ETF without moving the needle?  You can call up an ETF and have them facilitate a very large order, regardless of the liquidity.  They create the necessary ETF units as part of the transaction.  ETFs have the liquidity of the universe of underlying stocks. 


Price:
$22.010
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-07-10 BUY on WEAKNESS Must be logged in to use chart ZWU-T BMO Covered Call Utilities ETF

He likes it and holds it in a dividend fund, using it in a defensive way.  It has a covered call overlay.  Unfortunately the premium from the covered call strategy is less than desirable because volatility has been so low for so long.  We are seeing a little sell off because of a sensitivity to interest rates.  If it falls another couple of percent he will go back to accumulating it.


Price:
$13.750
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2017-06-26 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  An Italian bank is purchasing for one Euro two Italian regional lenders that were being bailed out, and are now being wound up.  This is the continuation of ‘too big to fail’.  The government is not doing a good enough job of regulating the banks there.  This is going to be troubling for decades to come.  If interest rates go up marginally, you see purchasing coming down.  At the end of the day, fixed income is a safe place to put your money.  There are doubts that Trump can ever cut corporate tax rates all the way to 15%.  This will affect small cap US stocks, which would have benefited tremendously from a big tax cut.  That makes the Russell 2000 index the most expensive in the world, so he is short that index. 


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-06-26 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  Robots.  A lot of boring jobs were replaced by computers and so a lot of jobs have gone away.  Amazon is breaking every space.  They could have cost a million jobs by now.  They are only going to get bigger and bigger in this space.  He feels there will be social problems coming.  From the mid-70s to today, the bottom 50% of people have seen no real growth in their incomes.  The next 40% have seen only a marginal growth.  The top 10% are all doing well.  BOTZ-Q and ROBO-Q are ETFs for robots and they have outperformed the world.  He will love them once we get a market correction.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-06-26 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart CBL-T Callidus Capital Corp

It is specialty financing so they get caught up in the whole HCG-T space.  CBL-T is in a corporate mess.  You have to wait for the dust to settle.  When there is something this acute, the chart and technical analysis are not useful.


Price:
$14.970
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-06-26 BUY on WEAKNESS Must be logged in to use chart CNQ-T Canadian Natural Rsrcs

Energy is his biggest weight in his portfolios and has been for a couple of weeks.  We are at the lower end of the oil price range.  CNQ-T has held up well over the last 5 years.  He does not see the tail risk currently.  You want to buy a quarter or a third into a position and do so on weakness.


Price:
$37.530
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-06-26 HOLD Must be logged in to use chart PDC-T PowerShares Canadian Dividend Index ETF

Canadian dividend index.  You have big exposure to banks and insurance.  It is a fine, diversified mix, and fine as long as we don’t get a pull back in any of the names.  He would have preferred a covered call overlay (e.g. ZWC-T).


Price:
$27.600
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-06-26 WAIT Must be logged in to use chart TD-T Toronto Dominion

The Canadian market has come off about 5% from the highs.  This is why the banks are off from earlier in the year.  There is definitely risk around real estate and the Canadian economy.  Banks are much more attractive at the level they were at about the time of the Trump election and there is a risk they will go there again.


Price:
$65.210
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-06-26 SELL ON STRENGTH Must be logged in to use chart TECK.B-T Teck Resources Ltd. (B)

Steel stocks have been beaten up and he plays it through an ETF.  You have Met. coal in TECK.B-T and so he thinks there is downside potential.  He would sell into rallies.


Price:
$21.900
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-06-26 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart ZEF-T BMO Emerging Mkts Bond Hedged CAD

ZEF-T vs. ZHY-T.  The question is credit risk.  You have emerging market risk with ZEF-T and so you get extra yield.  When you do the correlation of the higher yield, they trade more like an equity than a bond.  ZEF-T is an equity type risk, where as ZHY-T is more like fixed income.  He does not think it is the time to step into either of these.


Price:
$17.080
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-06-26 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart ZHY-T BMO HighYield Corp Bond US Hedge to CAD ETF

ZEF-T vs. ZHY-T.  The question is credit risk.  You have emerging market risk with ZEF-T and so you get extra yield.  When you do the correlation of the higher yield, they trade more like an equity than a bond.  ZEF-T is an equity type risk, where as ZHY-T is more like fixed income.  He does not think it is the time to step into either of these.


Price:
$14.660
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-06-26 WATCH Must be logged in to use chart ZWU-T BMO Covered Call Utilities ETF

80% Canada / 20% US.  It is not a fixed income replacement.  He is not adding to his holding right now.  He loves it as a yield play and would add more if we sold off more aggressively.  He has half a position.


Price:
$14.150
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2017-06-19 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  They de-stressed the stress test for the banks by taking the qualitative aspects out of it.  This week the stress tests will not have much impact.  He thinks we will see negative interest rates in the future.  He does not think the Fed will be able to unwind the balance sheet of the US much.  The equity markets are breaking out to new highs today.  There is a recession sometime in the future that will be hard on the markets.  He is nibbling away at energy producers, mainly through ETFs such as XEG-T, XLE-N, OIH-N.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-06-19 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

ETF similar to ROBO but in Canada.  There aren’t any.  You will have foreign currency risk with all of these.  But even if there was a Canadian one it would have to hold international equities.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-06-19 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Canadian vs. US $ ETF.  He believes the US stock markets have never been more expensive.  A high quality ETF could fall 25% or more in a bear market.  You would still get a yield throughout, however.  BMO is the best at covered call strategies so you might go that way.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-06-19 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Buy US$ now?  He likes to scale into a position.  If you have years to wait, then the CAD$ might get higher.  For the foreseeable future you are looking at $0.78 as the maximum, if that.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-06-19 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Guest: Danielle DiMartino Booth, author of Fed Up.  She is very critical of the Fed.  Credit markets were frozen solid and liquidity was the issue, not interest rates.  9 years later we are not at normalized interest rates.  She thinks eventually we will have social unrest.  Dividend paying stocks are among the most over valued stocks in the index.  Auto and Energy are the two biggest drivers of growth.  Auto sales volumes have rolled over.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-06-19 BUY on WEAKNESS Must be logged in to use chart ALA-T Altagas Ltd

He hates saying you get paid to wait.  He likes ETFs so you are diversified.  It looks like ALA-T is in a trading range.  You could nibble away at it if you like the dividend, however.  Sell at $35.


Price:
$30.590
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-06-19 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart HOU-T HBP NYMEX Oil Bull+ ETF

Double bull oil ETF.  It seems you are at the bottom end of the range in oil prices.  This ETF has the usual problem with leveraged ETFs if you hold them a long time.  HOU-T may not go up if oil is too volatile.


Price:
$5.090
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-06-12 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  The reversal in tech shares is quite meaningful. It stands out as what was leading the markets over the last 6 to 12 months. Look at IYW-N, the tech only ETF that is up 40% year over year, vs. the S&P being up 20%.  If you are a short term trader, you could buy on pull backs, but if you are long term, wait.  Buy when it tests the Trump election night levels, then it is time to step in.  Looking at the UK markets, they don’t like uncertainty.  BREXIT is the first part of the EU coming apart, but 5 years from now the EU won’t exist in its current form.  Italy stands out as the next one to move out.  The soft economic numbers are getting a bit better in Europe, but it is not free and clear.  The US markets are concerned with how the Fed is going to unwind or start to unwind the balance sheet.  It will pull back the liquidity of the markets just a little.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-06-12 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

If we are in a secular bull market, breaking out from $15 and change in the S&P, if we get back to those levels we would be testing the breakout of the market. And he thinks that is highly likely in the next recession.  We don’t know when the next recession will hit.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-06-12 BUY Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Caller looking for an ETF that covers retirement homes.  He has not seen one.  There is definitely a growth story there.  The government is considering a lot more in-home care.  Something investing in that would be a terrific growth story for the next 15 years.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-06-12 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  The US Yield Curve.  There have been three rate hikes: Dec/15, Dec/16 and then Mar/17.  The yield curve is the difference between the two year rate and the 10 year rate in the US.  We have seen a flattening of the curve following each rate hike.  Short term rates are rising while long term rates are falling somewhat.  This historically means that the market is anticipating a slowdown in the economy.  He would be shocked if we did not get a rate hike this week, but that should be it for this year.  Longer term rates will continue to fall.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-06-12 BUY on WEAKNESS Must be logged in to use chart AMD-Q Advanced Micro Devices

He would want to buy pullbacks to the $10 area.  We made a good test in May.  A pullback to that level would indicate a buying opportunity. 


Price:
$12.090
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
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1 Comment

raziel

April 3rd 2015 at 8:48am

My preferrers have come down substantially as a result of lowered bank rates, I believe. Shouldn't an instrument with a fixed rate go UP when bank rates are lowered?


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