Viewing Expert Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA | StockChase
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Compiling comments that experts make about stocks while on public TV.

Viewing Expert

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA , Chief Investment Officer, Partner

ETF Capital Management Inc.

Address
5160 Yonge St. Suite 1860
Toronto, ON
M2N 6L9

Contact Info
Telephone: 888-383-9753
Fax: 888-383-9753
Website: http://www.etfcm.com


Date Signal Chart Symbol Company Opinion Price
2017-04-24 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  The new French leader, Macron, is liked by Europe.  There is still a risk, but most likely we don’t need to worry about France for now, except that eventually the EU will break up.  The world needs pro-business, but eventually he thinks Europe will not work.  Analysts are expecting 70% earnings growth this year on the S&P, which he thinks is out to lunch.  There is lots of room for disappointment, but the market should rally for a least a few weeks.  He would sell this rally.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-04-24 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  US Government Shutdowns.  Valuations are high and this is a ‘risk-off’.  You want to be defensive if you can.  There have been 22 government shutdowns in history.  The most recent two had a small impact on GDP (0.1%).  The market historically gets nervous before a shut down and then is fine afterwards.  From a markets point of view it is a case of buying dips.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-04-24 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart CCL.B-T CCL Industries (B)

He does not know the details of how they are going to split it.  There is research that shows there is a perception that you can buy more shares after a split.  This is a human condition.  There is nothing beneficial in fundamentals.  Trade it if you want but because you like the company and then own it post-split, but don’t buy it just because it is going to split.


Price:
$300.000
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-24 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart XAW-T iShare Core MSCI World of Canada

When you buy a foreign ETF in Canada, you get a dividend tax withholding.  These ETFs have double negative taxation.  They are not the ideal ones to use.  He likes it otherwise for its overall exposure.  It is a fund holding a fund and that causes you to get dinged twice.


Price:
$23.740
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-24 BUY on WEAKNESS Must be logged in to use chart XEG-T iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Energy ETF

The energy sector outperformed the TSX as energy prices recovered last year, but the TSX has continued to go sideways to slightly higher while the energy sector has gone down.  So he has been adding energy.  He bought equal weight ETFs for North American energy exposure.


Price:
$12.510
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2017-04-24 SELL Must be logged in to use chart XRE-T iShares S&P/TSX Capped REIT

REITs.  We are basically coming up to resistance.  He does not think we will break through there.  He is selling REITs and is almost out.  The dividend is not as attractive as in some other sectors.  He would buy REITs if they got back to their lows.  If there is a cyclical recession in the next few years, then REITs will underperform in that kind of environment.


Price:
$16.660
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2017-04-24 WAIT Must be logged in to use chart ZMT-T BMO S&P/TSX Base Metals ETF

An equal weight play on metals.  It has come off significantly from recent highs.  There are massive risks in this sector.  You have to be very, very good on your timing.  He is not stepping in right now.


Price:
$9.590
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2017-04-24 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZPH-T BMO US Put Write Hedged to CAD

ZPW-T vs. ZPH-T. You have 100% equity exposure even though they are miss-classified on many trading platforms that look at what is in them.  They are writing options.  The fixed income holing is just there for margin purposes.  It is a treasury bill so there is no risk to it.  These are not fixed income. 


Price:
$20.060
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-24 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZPW-T BMO US Put Write ETF.

ZPW-T vs. ZPH-T. You have 100% equity exposure even though they are miss-classified on many trading platforms that look at what is in them.  They are writing options.  The fixed income holing is just there for margin purposes.  It is a treasury bill so there is no risk to it.  These are not fixed income. 


Price:
$19.540
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-24 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZWE-T BMO Europe High Dividend Covered Call Hedged to CAD ET

Europe covered call.  Its biggest weighting is France and it sold off in recent weeks and then today is on new highs.  This is the safeness way to play Europe.


Price:
$22.060
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2017-04-17 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  North Korea is not worrying markets.  Trump has shown his willingness to use aggressive force in recent weeks. The risk metrics are giving you warnings signals, but the stock market does not care.  Some key trend lines are being broken globally.  He would not want to put money to work right now.  The French election outcome could be bad for markets.  The rally is starting to break.  Gold should see resistance at $1300, but $1350 would be where we struggle.  He would sell in that range.  China has been the biggest currency manipulator for 35 years.  With Trump saying his dollar is too strong and he wants it lower it is playing the same game.  For the banks, net interest margins have improved, but the capital markets side just isn’t there.  The leadership sectors have rolled over.  He thinks some kind of correction is coming.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-04-17 WATCH Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Where to put US cash to work in ETFs.  There are a bunch of ETFs with a .U after them that trade in Canada, but in US dollars.   He would wait for a pull back of at least 5% before putting money to work.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-17 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Why is Gold going in the opposite direction to gold stocks?  He does not agree.  Look at the XGD-T.  You have some resistance from the highs of a few months ago and will see natural selling there.  If gold gets to $1350 there is potential for more gains.  He thinks we need to break above that, however.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2017-04-17 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  Hedging the Canadian Dollar.  Currency explains about 70% of the difference in returns between markets.  In Canada, the US$ is key.  Currency differences are caused by imports, exports and interest rate differentials.  We are range bound to 70-80 cents for the next few years.  You want to hedge when the Canadian dollar is at the low end of the scale (.73 or below).


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-04-17 WAIT Must be logged in to use chart AAPL-Q Apple

The valuation is not expensive.  He loves it from that perspective.  The Samsung 8 is getting great reviews and that is putting pressure on AAPL-Q.  In a correction it could come back to $120 and would be more attractive there.  Wait for the next iPhone to come out.


Price:
$141.830
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-17 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart AMZA-N InfraCap MLP ETF

AMZA-N is a master limited trust partnerships ETF that plays in the energy space.  It started at $25 and collapsed down to $5.  The yield has come up considerably and he would question its sustainability.


Price:
$10.500
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-17 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart CEFL-N UBS ETRACS Monthly Pay 2xLeveraged Closed-End Fund

CEFL-N looks like a leveraged play which concerns him.  He would stay away from it, but he knows little about how the leverage is used.


Price:
$17.690
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-17 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart CFW-T Calfrac Well Services Ltd

Oil has come off the lows of a year ago.  The trend line is broken and we are seeing higher highs and higher lows so you want to buy into a dip if you believe oil will get better, which he does not.  Trim exposure if it does not break the $5 resistance.


Price:
$3.870
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-17 WATCH Must be logged in to use chart HCG-T Home Capital Group

You need to look at the long term chart.  There are lower lows and lower highs.  You can’t call a bottom.  You have to see a sign that it has turned.  Hedge funds are playing this stock.  There is high risk and no technical evidence that a bottom is in.  It is for high speculators only.


Price:
$22.120
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-17 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart HNU-T HBP NYMEX Nat'l Gas Bull+

A double leveraged play for Natural Gas.  Future prices of gas are already in this.  This is fine for a short term trade of a week or two, but you need to understand the forward nature of the curve.  You need more increase in gas prices than the futures contracts predict.  He does not think there will be a big boom in Natural Gas this summer.  ZJN-T is junior companies and is a better way to play gas.


Price:
$8.260
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-17 WATCH Must be logged in to use chart MEG-T MEG Energy Corp

Look at a 5 year chart.  It looks like there is some stability and that it is turning around, but there are still question marks in his mind.  You need to take out the 2016 highs.


Price:
$6.800
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-10 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  When you look at forward earnings expectations for 2017 the market is looking for 9% growth.  The US analysts are expecting 23% earnings growth there.  They are expecting tax cuts to help earnings, but we are not getting any tax cuts this year.  If we go to GAAP earnings, we are trading at over 25 times earnings.  The last time was in 2000, then 1987 before that.  The markets are expensive.  It is possible that the US debt will be extended beyond April 28th without a bill.  The problem is that Trump wants it to contain funding for the ‘The Wall’.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-04-10 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

ETFs and Tom Caldwell’s Comments last week on BNN.  The ETFs have the liquidity of the underlying equities.  Larry believes Tom was wrong.  Counter party risks are quite small.  Other derivatives out there are much more toxic.  ETFs will not cause a crisis.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-04-10 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Preferred Shares.  They are fine holdings.  The risks are significant moves in interest rates.  In the last few months there were a lot of financial products being built around preferred shares.  This has pushed up the valuations of preferred shares in general.  They could come back down.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-10 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  Why Long Bonds are the Best Way to Diversify your Portfolio.  You have to look at risk and return.  Long bonds have the same or less risk as equities.  You get a better yield from long bonds than from equities based on risk.  Long bonds are the most negatively correlated to equities.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-10 BUY Must be logged in to use chart CBO-T iShares 1-5 yr Ladder Corp Bond ETF

This is a short term laddered bond portfolio up to 5 years.  The bonds are trading at a premium, generally.  Long term you get a decline in the price.  The yield to maturity is closer to 2%.  The real return is positive even though the valuation goes down over time.  Generally it is a very safe instrument.


Price:
$18.990
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-10 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart HMMJ-T Horizon's Medical Marijuana

Medical Marijuana ETF.  You get a diversified basket.  In a broader market correction, these stocks would get hammered.  If we get a down market in the next year, this would be a long term go-to area.  It is completely speculative.  He is not playing it today, but likes the strategy.


Price:
$11.840
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-10 BUY Must be logged in to use chart ZPH-T BMO US Put Write Hedged to CAD

Low Risk ETF with a Monthly Dividend.  It yields 6-7% a year.  It hedges the currency.  There is not a lot of price movement up and down.  It is not risk free, however.  It will go down half as fast as the market in a rapidly declining market.


Price:
$19.990
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-10 SELL Must be logged in to use chart ZRE-T BMO Equal Weight REITs Index

He likes it when the risk adjusted returns are attractive.  Friday he sold REITs in his dividend fund.  If it gets below $18, it would be attractive again because of the yield.


Price:
$20.210
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2017-04-10 BUY Must be logged in to use chart ZWB-T BMO Covered Call Cdn Banks ETF

In a strong upward market it will underperform the equal weight without covered calls.  Despite what others have said, these are not bad for long term holds.  They do not, however, replace fixed income because you have equity exposure.


Price:
$18.870
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-10 BUY Must be logged in to use chart ZWU-T BMO Covered Call Utilities ETF

In a strong upward market it will underperform the equal weight without covered calls.  Despite what others have said, these are not bad for long term holds.  They do not, however, replace fixed income because you have equity exposure.


Price:
$14.180
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-03 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  He believes governments should not be involved and let capitalism play out for Bombardier.  There should be policies in place to avoid conflicts of interest.  Failing companies should be left to fail.  The US tax reform is going to require a border tax.  We don’t know what it will look like.  This is the beginning of very difficult period.  He is betting that Trump will do something wrong.  Some of the weakness today is just the Market.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-04-03 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Dividend Growth Smart ETF.  SPHB-N and SPLV-N are suggestions.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-03 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Hedged or Unhedged Products.  Many investors pay a lot for changing back and forth between currencies.  For now he thinks we get down to 72 cents to the US dollar.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-03 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  The French election is coming up at the end of April and is not priced into the markets.  There were two elections last year that did not go the way the pollsters predicted.  This is a market risk.  VT-N dropped as we got into the US election last year.  It went 5% below peak.  The Brexit decline was similar.  If we go to an Anti EU government in France it will be very negative for the markets.  ZWE-T is the way to play this.  He buys into dips, but is underweight.  If it gets back down to $19.40 you should get back into it.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-04-03 HOLD Must be logged in to use chart ZID-T BMO India Equity Hedged to CAD ETF

India.  He really likes India and small caps are the way to play it.  He started to get out when we started re-testing the highs.  He is going to buy dips in India because he loves the story.  He makes decisions based on risk and return.  If you like it long term then stick with it.


Price:
$21.700
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2017-04-03 WEAK BUY Must be logged in to use chart ZJG-T BMO Junior Gold Index ETF

Junior gold miners.  It is not linked to gold.  They go up and down relative to the price of gold, but many don’t have production.  He thinks gold is going to break out and will pop to $1350.  It should retest last year’s highs.  Junior gold stocks should test highs also.  He does not like the speculative names.


Price:
$9.040
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2017-04-03 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZWB-T BMO Covered Call Cdn Banks ETF

30% was return of capital in 2016.  In the beginning of 2016 there was about 65 million units outstanding.  By the end there were 5 million new units.  They then had to pay out on additional shares.  They do a return on capital so that everyone gets the same amount of payout.  You are not getting your own money back.  It is an adjustment because there are now more units.  This is the structure of a growing fund.


Price:
$18.890
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-03 BUY Must be logged in to use chart ZWE-T BMO Europe High Dividend Covered Call Hedged to CAD ET

A diversified basket of high dividend covered calls are something he likes.  He would consider adding ZWC-T.  If we go into a 20% bear market then an ETF like these will only fall about 80% of the downside of the market in general.  Also, look at ZWU-T in a recession.


Price:
$21.710
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-27 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  The sentiment on the street regarding the failure to launch the repeal of the health care act is that the tax changes will also be tough.  The big interest is in the mid-term election in 2018.  If it is not attached to a budget then nothing is going to get done.  The most logical thing is for the market to sell off to where it was before the Trump election.  This morning there are dip buyers coming in.  He thinks through April we will continue to drift lower to where we were before the Trump election.  It is the physiology about how markets work. You have to test the confidence.  He did not adjust positions on Friday because he expected it to fail.  There is major execution risk with Trump policy.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-03-27 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  It is the 10th year anniversary of the show.  He often gets the comment that he is always bearish.  But he thinks he is optimistic.  He looks at the risk side before the returns side of investing.  Beta is the sensitivity to the market risk.  When he is considering buying anything he thinks about the risk index.  ZEB-T graph compared to the world index looked at the weekly return and then he finds the trend.  The slope of .65 tells him the sensitivity to the world index.  At this level about 50% is related to sector risk.  He decides how much of the decision relates to the world, or to sector or to the specific stock.  XEG-T is the Canadian energy sector, compared to the world it is more sloped, meaning it is more risky.  He needs to weigh the macro factors more in this case.  SU-T has a lower correlation to the energy sector because there is less risk and that is because of their refining business.  Energy is starting to look interesting now.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-03-27 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ALA-T Altagas Ltd

6.8% is a pretty high yield.  If the outlook for Nat Gas is going to be suppressed for the next couple of years then the dividend is at risk.


Price:
$30.980
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-27 SPECULATIVE BUY Must be logged in to use chart BTL-X BTL Group Ltd.

Within 20 years the world will be paperless in terms of currency.  Central banks and governments are absolutely broke.  Getting rid of the grey economy would really help.  When there is no cash in the system it eliminates all that.  This is one of the earliest types of this process.  It is an interesting concept.


Price:
$3.150
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-27 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart HHL-T Healthcare Leaders Income Fund

The US healthcare bill having failed Friday puts some risk into the sector.  He would be fine if it fell back to support levels, but would not step in today, otherwise it is a fine quality holding.


Price:
$8.400
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-27 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart HRT-T Harte Gold Corp

They have never had any revenue.  Nobody knows what will happen so they are speculative.  He thinks gold will have a rally up to $1350 if we go unto uncertain on the equity market.  ZJG-T is a junior gold ETF and a better way to play it.


Price:
$0.530
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-27 WAIT Must be logged in to use chart TD-T Toronto Dominion

He is cautious on banks as they are starting to pull back.  If we go through a period of uncertainty, all these stocks come back to where they broke out from, otherwise he is comfortable buying here.


Price:
$65.130
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-27 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZLE-T BMO Low Volatility Emerging Markets Equity

You typically get one payout a year from emerging market ETFs.  Generally emerging markets pay out a larger dividend.  He would look for the distribution to settle out at about 2%.  The difference between this and VEE-T is that is it is low volatility. 


Price:
$21.590
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-27 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZWB-T BMO Covered Call Cdn Banks ETF

Covered call banks, but ZWC-T covers more economic sectors.  Banks are 21% of the TSX and are that potion of ZWC-T.


Price:
$18.870
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-27 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart ZWE-T BMO Europe High Dividend Covered Call Hedged to CAD ET

It is a broad, European, covered call strategy.  It could easily fall 10-15% minimum.  Don’t put new money to work here now.  Europe overall is pretty cheap, however. 


Price:
$21.600
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-20 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

G20 Statement. Although tepid, he thinks they are supporting free trade, but probably under a lot of duress from the first real official global meeting with the Trump policy being pushed towards the world. The US is the biggest economy in the world, so what they want tends to typically happen. This is why markets were concerned about the anti-trade, and the original reason why futures market sold off aggressively the night of the election. It is concerning. However, it is not measured in weeks and days or the next tick on the chart; it is a long-term strategic policy. While he is very optimistic and bullish on the need for lower taxes overall, he is concerned about the lack of trade. However, we have seen slower trade globally. Looking at the Baltic Dry Index and the freight rates that are being charged, they have been in a slow decline for years, so it is not anything new. If the biggest economy, the US, is not participating, there will be less trade globally. The US has a surplus against Canada and are not really fighting us, but they’ve made strong statements on softwood lumber as an example. They have a deficit against Mexico, which is where they want to improve and bring stuff and make America great again, and America 1st. We are going to see lots of this for years to come.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-03-20 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Crude oil. He is not bearish in that we are going back to the $20s, but he wants to see what OPEC is going to do. There is some compliance, but it is Saudi Arabia that is more compliant than a lot of the other partners. There is some weakness in OPEC, which is what he expected. Oil shouldn’t be at $55, but should probably be closer to $45.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-03-20 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

BREXIT. The biggest thing from their perspective is, what does Scotland do. Scotland wants to hold a referendum in late 2018 or early 2019. Once they go through the two-year period of the negotiations to either stay or not stay, it is a mess. We haven’t felt one iota of economic impact in terms of trade, etc., and we probably won’t know for a year, or maybe 2, on how this plays out. It does speak to the fact that the UK and the EU doesn’t work, and eventually it is going to start coming apart. This is just the beginning.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-03-20 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Sectors with the best value right now? A couple of weeks ago, low volatility areas had been underperforming significantly. Markets have been strong since the Trump election, up 10%, 15%, 20% depending on where you look and what sectors. Low volatility sectors like utilities, consumer staples have underperformed. Those sectors, right now, screen as cheap because they are much more defensive. What typically happens with fund managers, is when they are positive on the outlook for the market, they are investing in more cyclicals; whether consumer, industrial or technology, companies that are going to get much more of a beta lift when the markets are doing well. When the markets are expected to correct, they can’t go to cash, most managers have to stay fully invested. They sell their consumer cyclical and they buy a consumer staple; they sell their industrial and buy a health care; sell their financial and buy a utility. This takes down their beta or their sensitivity to the downside. The low volume sectors are somewhat attractive right now compared to some of the more cyclical sectors.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-03-20 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Sectors you like and dislike? Real estate is interest rate sensitive, so not his favourite right now. He is underweight. What is really cheap? A couple of days ago, gold was cheap and he was nibbling in this sector. However, if you are talking about a strategy for the long-term, the next 2, 3, 5 years, financials in the US are still pretty cheap. When he is tactical, and moving money around pretty actively, he is looking out 3 months, maybe 6. He has no idea what is going to happen 4 or 5 years from now.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-03-20 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment: Long-Term Investing. This is on geopolitical and global macro, because a lot of global hedge funds macro views and look for themes in markets. This week, Canada has their budget. Global investors look at things like this and look for what is diverging and what is different, and is it good or bad compared to others. The US is cutting taxes, both corporate and personal, while Canada is raising taxes. Global money follows the flow of funds. Canada has net outflows on capital account, net outflows on current account, so we run trade deficits. There is less money coming into Canada so the global investors see that Canada is vulnerable and if they Short Canada as well as the currency, will the Bank of Canada raise rates? Investing in Canada has a lot to do with oil, and as oil goes, so goes the TSX.

If the budget is as bad as he thinks it is going to be, in terms of taxing capital and savings, you use inverse ETF’s. HBP 60 Inverse ETF (HIX-T) is an inverse play on the TSX 60. While Canada is somewhat cheap this year, it is only going to grow at 1.5% a year over the next 5 years, and only because they are borrowing money.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-03-20 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart FIE.A-T iShares Canadian Financial Monthly Income E.T.F.

The distribution on this is somewhat fixed. They are paying out north of a 6%-7% yield. If you look at what is in it, there is nothing that yields that much. Looking at all the banks and the other income generating securities this owns, the average is about 4%. This is paying out about 3% extra, which is capital gain you would’ve otherwise been getting from the share price. This is why you are not seeing a lot of upside in the price movement of this ETF.


Price:
$6.910
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-20 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart SHOP-T Shopify Inc.

Play this through options? The longest option he can see is October. Looking at the current Strike Price, it is around $90Cdn. He prefers Writing options as opposed to buying them. Looking at a $74 option, almost 20% below the market, you could Write a Put today and take in about $2 to $3, meaning you could make a couple percent, waiting to buy this cheaper. He loves these kinds of strategies.


Price:
$92.000
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-20 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZPH-T BMO US Put Write Hedged to CAD

ZPH-T or ZPW-T? He likes them both. When he thinks the CDN$ is going to get weaker, $.02, $.03, $.04, he wants ZPW. When he thinks the Cdn$ may get stronger, then he wants this one and wants to hedge the currency risk.


Price:
$19.980
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-20 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZPW-T BMO US Put Write ETF.

ZPH-T or ZPW-T? He likes them both. When he thinks the CDN$ is going to get weaker, $.02, $.03, $.04, he wants this one. When he thinks the Cdn$ may get stronger, then he wants ZPH and wants to hedge the currency risk.


Price:
$19.210
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-20 BUY Must be logged in to use chart ZWC-T BMO Canadian High Dividend Covered Call ETF

BMO high dividend or BMO Europe high dividend? He loves these and uses them in his fund. When you want to play defence, a high dividend concentration in stocks, tend to have lower downside risk. If you do this with a Covered Call, you get an enhancement on your yield. This one has close to a 6% yield, not a bad way to play Canada.


Price:
$20.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2017-03-20 BUY Must be logged in to use chart ZWE-T BMO Europe High Dividend Covered Call Hedged to CAD ET

BMO high dividend or BMO Europe high dividend? He loves these and uses them in his fund. When you want to play defence, a high dividend concentration in stocks, tend to have lower downside risk. If you do this with a Covered Call, you get an enhancement on your yield.


Price:
$21.590
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2017-03-20 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZWU-T BMO Covered Call Utilities ETF

What is the downside risk? This has 80% pipelines, telcos, utilities in Canada and 20% in the US. Generally utilities, telcos and pipelines are big dividend players. This is yielding about 7%, a very nice yield, but extremely interest rate sensitive. In 2013, when the US Federal Reserve was first talking about raising rates, we had the taper tantrum. This ETF went down pretty hard, but then came back up when the Fed backed off. In 2015, there was a big drop because of pipelines, when oil prices were coming down. You have to understand what you are holding.


Price:
$13.930
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-13 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Interest rates. The Fed will raise interest rates this week. Friday’s payroll was pretty decent, so there is no room for them not to go. Three rate hikes are pretty much priced in to the Fed Fund’s curve out to the end of the year. If we go into Europe and European elections, Netherlands actually starts this week, but we are really looking at the French election as the key one, April 23-May 7. If Marie Le Pen wins the election, that is going to be very destabilizing globally, far more than BREXIT, far more than the US election, and far more than the Italian election. We haven’t seen any impact from British breaking trade agreements with the EU, other than the weakening of the British pound. If France decides to leave the EU, and it goes back to the French franc, the whole European project begins to come apart. BREXIT was a warning shot across the bow, and this would be breaking it apart. If it is not this one, maybe it is the Italian election, sometime within the next year. If one of these goes extreme right wing it is going to start falling apart. That is what he is really worried about. The US economy, for all its ills, is still the strongest economy in the world. The restructuring that Trump is trying to put into place should be very, very good in the long run. There is lots of execution risk. We are now hearing Congress may not go for these trade deals, it has to be revenue neutral for tax cuts, etc., thus execution risk for the next couple of quarters We just have to be cautious on the markets.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
_N/A
2017-03-13 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Oil. Hedge funds may be a bit too long on oil. Tom McClellan points out that the “net short” position of the commercials, the opposite side of the speculators, are very net short; in fact, the most “net short” since oil was over $100, and they are the smart money. The speculators are on the other side of this trade. There is probably some more downside to go here. It could push oil down to the low $40s, as those positions unwind. $40-$60 is probably the range for the next couple of years.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
_N/A
2017-03-13 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Why would bank stocks lose value when interest rates are increased? This isn’t necessarily so. The general perception is that if interest rates go up, their revenues are going to rise which would make them more profitable. It really has to do with interest rate differentials. Banks tend to borrow Short and lend Long. It’s the shape of the yield curve that matters. Typically, the bulk of the lending is going to be in the 5-year range, the home equity lines of credit, the corporate mortgages, commercial mortgages. So it’s Short term rates versus Long-term rates, and if that curve is actually flattening, that means margins get compressed by the Banks. It depends on why interest rates are rising. Are they rising because the economy is taking off and inflation expectations are growing, in which case your yield curve steepening; or is it rising because the Fed is tightening and maybe too much, causing a perception that the economy is going to slow down, and therefore your yield curve is flattening, which would affect bank profits negatively.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
_N/A
2017-03-13 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Gold? He was buying gold mid December, and sold out at the beginning of January and February. Last week, for the 1st time, he started nibbling again. He’s been buying pullbacks as a general rule. Doesn’t think gold stocks are going to see the major resistance of last summer of $1350-$1400 any more, so he is inclined to range trade it. What is going to force gold up are bits and pieces of inflation, flight to safety, supply and demand. When it dips below $1200 you Buy, and up above $1300-$1350, you Sell.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-13 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Canadian dollar in 3-6 months? A big factor is what oil prices are going to do. What is the spread between interest rates between Canada and the US going to do? Those of the 2 biggest factors. If you look at positioning right now, it is very similar to the oil story. Speculators and the futures market, are long the Cdn$ because they believe oil is going to do well, so there is room here for the Cdn$ to sell off.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
_N/A
2017-03-13 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment: Market Drawdowns. What he calls “market noise” is a 5% correction or less. He looked at the peaks and the lowest lows in a 4-year business cycle since 1920. Looking at the drawdowns over the years, you can see the great depression, where 86% was the drawdown in US large caps. We’ve had several in the 50% range. However, the average surprisingly was 13.4%, and the average was only 10 months long. You tend to get a 5%-13% correction at least once a year, so it is pretty normal to get volatility in the markets. Drawing down a little further, he has a one-year version, which shows that we get more frequent declines. The interesting thing is, if we are down 13.4% from the previous peak, and we look out one year knowing that the bear decline is about 10 months, this is the time to start investing, to get aggressive once the markets are down. Your forward returns go up exponentially from a low point, compared to putting money to work at a high point. We are probably due for a downturn that is going to be about 24% at some point in the next year or 2, so he is playing defence because of that. Once we are down 13.4%, he’ll be thinking about buying.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
_N/A
2017-03-13 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart HHL-T Healthcare Leaders Income Fund

This invests in healthcare related securities, and believes the enhancement comes from an option strategy overlay. Like any other sector, this is fine when it is going up. This ETF tends to have a lot of volatility compared to some of the others. He doesn’t use this, so doesn’t know that much about it. It’s a fine product and he has no issues with it. It has a pretty significant yield, which tends to be what attracts a lot of people. Dividend yield of 8%+ right now.


Price:
$8.460
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
No
2017-03-13 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZDJ-T BMO DJ Industrial Ave Hedged to CAD ETF

A Cdn$ Dow Jones Unhedged ETF’s? This is one, but is not sure if other ETF providers in Canada have an unhedged Dow.


Price:
$35.880
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-13 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZLE-T BMO Low Volatility Emerging Markets Equity

This is a bunch of companies that are utilities, telcos, consumer staples; not that different than what you see in Canada, the US and Europe. Not cheap right now. The theory is that if we go into a bear market that is ugly for a while, these are safer stocks. They’ll go down less in a bad market, about half to three quarters of the rate of the broader indexes.


Price:
$21.070
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-13 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZPR-T BMO S&P/TSX Laddered Preferred

Will the rise in value of this ETF continue? The TD Bank and Bank of Montréal launched some structured products into the market that were linked to the payouts of the preferreds, and they were wildly successful. The demand for these preferreds went through the roof. He doesn’t think this is sustainable and he sold into the rally. He doesn’t like the value up here and is reducing his exposure.


Price:
$11.460
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Yes
2017-03-06 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  The Chinese growth story is over.  Chinese debt (gov’t, corporate, personal) from the Lehman moment was about 165% and now is pushing 265% debt to GDP.  The Chinese economy that was growing at 6-7% was 100% fueled by debt.  The economy is still growing, but just because they are slapping on the debt.  The demographics in the world are a big problem.  With protectionist policies under Trump, Chinese growth will have trouble keeping going.  Canada is only growing this year because of debt. 


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-03-06 BUY Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Treasuries Outlook:  The longer the maturity, the more negatively correlated it is, compared to equities.  The long bond is the best hedge.  The longer bonds are starting to find support whereas short term are starting to back up because of the fed rate hike scenario over this year.  We are getting a flattening of the yield curve, forecasting economic slowing.  If the market was forecasting inflation then the long bond would be selling off more.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-06 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Covered Call Protection against a recession?  ZWU-T is the safest one.  It yields about 7%.  In a recession that will give you the best protection.  ZWB-T would sell off more.  ZWC-T looks at the best dividend paying companies with covered calls.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-06 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Oil bulls think we will rebalance and energy will go back up.  He is a realist.  He just bought a plug-in hybrid car.  The first 30 km of the day it runs on electricity.  All the cars are going this way.  Demand for oil is going to come down in the developed world.  The TSX energy sector is priced at $60 oil.  He is very underweight.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-03-06 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  Long Term Investor Psychology.  Per unit of gain in a portfolio, the psychological value diminishes as you get more.  The more money you start to lose, the more you increase your unhappiness per unit of loss.  When we get complacent after a period of gains, this is our biggest point of risk. 


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-03-06 BUY on WEAKNESS Must be logged in to use chart SNC-T SNC-Lavalin Group Inc.

The US infrastructure spend is over the 8 years of the administration.  It will not move the needle all that much, but this company is one of the top ones to benefit from it.  We are back up at the levels when SNC-T had the problems mid-2014.  He would buy on dips, but does not see a big upside breakout here.


Price:
$55.450
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-06 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZPW-T BMO US Put Write ETF.

The best 100 companies with write-options 15% or so below market.  If markets decline rapidly, you don’t get a lot of support from it.  But if a decline is over 6 months you won’t see a lot of downside.


Price:
$19.280
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-02-27 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  We have this divergence because we have the liberal budget coming out.  Canada is out of cash.  The US is going to cut taxes and make it more competitive, making business less efficient here.  He thinks what is doable through congress and what Trump would like to do are two very different things.  March 15th we next hear from the Fed, March 10th we get another employment number.  If we get a good employment number it is 50/50 we get a rate hike.  We are due for some volatility soon.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-02-27 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

ETFs for an RESP at the start of University.  As you go into the years where you start to use the funds, you need to make sure the money you will take out each June is not subject to volatility.  Take next June’s withdrawal and put it into a money market ETF.  The rest can be a short term corporate bond ETF.  At some point before the end of the 4 years of school, we will probably have a recession.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-02-27 BUY Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

VIX Products.  There are a suite of single, inverse and leveraged ETFs with Horizon.  You are exposed to US dollars even though you buy them in Canadian dollars.  They are not good for long term trades, however.  HUV-T may be one to look at.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-02-27 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  Diverging tax policy in the US and Canada and how to take advantage of it.  Trump is addressing a joint session of congress tomorrow night.  Trump is going to talk about tax, including border tax.  They may not have agreement about tax reform until Q4 this year or even early 2018.  They want the tax reforms to be revenue neutral.  He is far more bullish in his outlook for the US than Canada.  The Canadian dollar could get weaker.  PSU-T is a high interest savings account, but you would also make money on the drop of the CAD$ relative to the US$.  For more aggressive types you could play it with small caps in the US and an inverse position in Canada.  There is volatility ahead with ambitious estimates for earnings growth possibly not happening.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-02-27 SELL Must be logged in to use chart BBD.B-T Bombardier Inc (B)

He does not know what to do here.  It is cheap from a long term perspective, but there has been a demonstration of poor execution for years.  You could take a shot at it at $1.50, but you should not be in it right now.


Price:
$2.360
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-02-27 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart REI.UN-T RioCan Real Estate Investment

If you want to be in the sector, use ZRE-T because sometimes a stock underperforms and sometimes it outperforms.  Recently the sector has been improving while REI.UN-T has not.  REITs are not cheap compared to other places to get a dividend.


Price:
$26.610
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-02-27 PARTIAL SELL Must be logged in to use chart ZPR-T BMO S&P/TSX Laddered Preferred

This is expensive now.  He has been selling into the strength since December.  If it gets back to those levels he would buy back in.


Price:
$11.345
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-02-27 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZWB-T BMO Covered Call Cdn Banks ETF

There is no real negative from the covered call strategy in a dropping market unless the stock goes down by large up & down movements.  However, it enhances your yield while you are waiting out the downturn.


Price:
$19.200
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-02-27 WAIT Must be logged in to use chart ZWU-T BMO Covered Call Utilities ETF

Utilities, pipelines and Telco’s.  80/20 Canadian to US.  It fell on anticipation of interest rate increases and oil dropping early in 2016.  You have to be careful because rising interest rates and falling oil prices are both negative for it.


Price:
$13.850
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2017-02-13 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  He is not sure we will see anything significant coming out of the Trump/ Trudeau meeting.  If you X-out all the commodities we export to the US, there is a pretty balanced trade between Canada and the US.  If they target specific industries those industries could get hurt.  He did not see softwood lumber on the agenda for today.  Trump’s idea of fair may be very different than Trudeau’s idea of fair.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-02-13 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Paying the S&P-500 – Pullback possible?  He thinks we will get some disappointment risk on execution.  The tax plan is probably not being implemented until 2018 now.  He thinks there will be a buying opportunity coming soon with a 5-10% pullback as there is one every year.  He would not be a buyer of the S&P-500 for the long term right now, but it is good for a trade.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-02-13 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Canadian version of ZPW-T?  He does not think there is one coming because there is not the depth to the Canadian market. 


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-02-13 SELL Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Gold.  He was buying XGD-T, ZGD-T when gold was around $1150 a month and a half back.  He has since sold out of XGD-T.  He trimmed GLD-N last week.  He does not know if Trump will be bullish for gold or not.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2017-02-13 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment. Using Stops. The value approach looks for a range of support and how you buy into it.  Anchoring is a behaviour where you want to try to get your money back.  That is the wrong way to think about it.  You should think about where you should put the money in a losing stock.  Get out of a position if it is not working.  You should have a plan on when to get out.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-02-13 BUY on WEAKNESS Must be logged in to use chart GOOGL-Q Alphabet Inc. (A)

He is concerned about valuation here.  But they are a great company.  In a market correction it could come down more than the market.  $740-750 would be a buying range.


Price:
$838.960
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-02-13 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart IWM-N iShares Russell 2000 ETF

Analysts are expecting about 80% earnings growth over the next year in the Russell 2000.  There is room for disappointment.  He initiated a short position on it as part of a long/short strategy.


Price:
$138.300
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2017-02-13 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart VAH-T Vanguard FTSE Developed Asia Pacific All Cap Index ETF

Look at the risk factors. US Trump execution is a big one. Brexit negotiations start next month. Also, there are German and French elections. This will be the beginning of the EU breaking up and will be bearish for a while and then bullish in the long run. He is out of Japan, however. 


Price:
$27.680
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-02-13 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart WMT-N Wal-Mart Stores Inc.

If Chinese imports are taxed, it will really hurt Walmart.  Don’t buy above the 52 week lows.


Price:
$67.770
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-02-13 BUY Must be logged in to use chart ZWE-T BMO Europe High Dividend Covered Call Hedged to CAD ET

European Market. He plays it with ZWE-T. It has high dividends and a covered call strategy with a currency hedge.  6-7% yield.  For the next 5 years that would be pretty good for Europe.  It is the more conservative way to go.


Price:
$21.310
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-02-06 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  Trump’s immigration policy is not going that well.  He says he wants the US$ weaker.  Border taxes will almost certainly push the dollar higher.  There are conflicting policies.  At some point the market wakes up and realizes there will be execution problems.  The US will be VERY well supplied with oil for the next 5 years with Keystone coming on.  This will put downward pressure on oil prices.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-02-06 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Bear Markets.  Inverse ETFs will go up 1:1 when markets to down.  Don’t use leveraged ETFs.  Utilities are best correlated to interest rates.  Gold can rally in a bear market.  You have to look at bonds because they rally in a bear market.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-02-06 BUY on WEAKNESS Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Cyber Security.  There are two ETFs.  HACK-N is one.  You get access to all the companies playing in the space.  It has been trending since day one.  He would buy on dips as the ETF has been climbing since its inception.  Risks right here are a little high, however.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2017-02-06 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  Measuring Risk and Reward.  Within 20 years the vast majority of money in the world will be run by computers.  The traditional portfolio manager will be gone.  E.g. SU-T, 25% of the sector, a big player.  Going back 10 years it has made nobody any money for 10 years.  It is up less than the dividend.  Buy it when it is cheap relative to the benchmark and the markets.  Figure out how much you need in your portfolio.  The price of oil is the most important factor in the stock price.  Looking at the 5 year chart it is incredibly overvalued.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-02-06 SELL Must be logged in to use chart AAPL-Q Apple

He does not like where it is.  We are against all time highs.  It could break out, but there is definitely resistance here.  You could write a put option and get paid about 5% yield over the next year.  If it drops 20% then you will have to buy it and that is fine.  This is how he would play AAPL-Q.  If the option expires, then just do it again.


Price:
$130.290
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2017-02-06 SELL Must be logged in to use chart CLF-T iShares 1-5 yr Government Bond ETF

He prefers corporate bonds because they yield more than government bonds.  Prices will probably continue to fall.  You are getting a bigger yield payment than the yield to maturity on the bonds themselves.  CBO-T would be the replacement for this ETF.


Price:
$18.550
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-02-06 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZWB-T BMO Covered Call Cdn Banks ETF

The MER is in the 40-50 basis point range.  The enhanced yield is created with an option writing overlay.  They write one standard deviation out of the money.  The options can enhance yield 1.5 percentage points over time.


Price:
$18.940
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-01-30 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  The US revenue growth is about 4% year over year and if you factor in 2% inflation, then back out energy and financials, you get negative growth.  The forecast is for double digit earnings growth going forward and he does not see that happening.  He is concerned about some of the policies that Trump promised.  Closing the borders is negative for growth.  Entitlement reform is Medicare.  It is estimated to cost $50 Trillion out to 2050.  If Trump tacks on these border tariffs, there is still potential for the US$ to strengthen. 


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-01-30 BUY Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

ETFs for smaller amounts of cash to invest.  You can buy a handful of them and buy a much diversified global portfolio.  You need to understand risk management. 


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
AGRICULTURE, DIVIDEND & FIXED INCOME
Bias:
BEAR
Owned:
_N/A
2017-01-30 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  Smart Factor ETFs.  Reducing portfolio risk.  The trend between actively managed mutual funds compared to what capital is going into ETFs show money is moving that way.  You can do asset allocation with ETFs and that is by far the most important consideration.  The bigger companies dominate the NASDAQ.  Three sectors make up half the index.  It is very concentrated and heavily weighted into a few stocks.  All smart factor ETFs beat the index.  They all have different volatilities.  You should use all of the indexing strategies in your portfolio. 


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
AGRICULTURE, DIVIDEND & FIXED INCOME
Bias:
BEAR
Owned:
_N/A
2017-01-30 HOLD Must be logged in to use chart FDN-N First Trust Dow Jones Internet Index Fund

Internet ETF.  Analysts do not make consensus targets for ETFs.  The average PE is no different from the overall NASDAQ.  The trend is healthy.  It is not cheap.


Price:
$85.950
Subject:
AGRICULTURE, DIVIDEND & FIXED INCOME
Bias:
BEAR
Owned:
Unknown
2017-01-30 HOLD Must be logged in to use chart GIB.A-T CGI Group (A)

The long term trend is pretty good, but in the last year it has been pretty flat.  He would not be too worried about it until the long term trend is broken.  (Analysts target: $70).  You want to trim near $70.


Price:
$63.130
Subject:
AGRICULTURE, DIVIDEND & FIXED INCOME
Bias:
BEAR
Owned:
Unknown
2017-01-30 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart VEA-N Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index Fund ETF.

VEA-N vs. VEU-N.  VEA-N is the developed market index, excluding the US.  VEU-N is the entire world, excluding the US.  VT-N is his preference for the whole world.


Price:
$37.980
Subject:
AGRICULTURE, DIVIDEND & FIXED INCOME
Bias:
BEAR
Owned:
Unknown
2017-01-30 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart VEU-N Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Index Fund ETF.

VEA-N vs. VEU-N. VEA-N is the developed market index, excluding the US.  VEU-N is the entire world, excluding the US.  VT-N is his preference for the whole world.


Price:
$46.180
Subject:
AGRICULTURE, DIVIDEND & FIXED INCOME
Bias:
BEAR
Owned:
Unknown
2017-01-30 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZWH-T BMO US High Dividend Covered Call ETF

There is no risk-free.  Covered call strategies call in a bear market. Dividends are pasted straight through from the companies.


Price:
$20.670
Subject:
AGRICULTURE, DIVIDEND & FIXED INCOME
Bias:
BEAR
Owned:
Unknown
2017-01-23 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Stop Losses.  Using stops in portfolios is a certain kind of style for people who do not understand diversification and are pure momentum players.  It is fine.  But the vast majority of guests on BNN are portfolio managers and have a long term horizon.  Being stopped out can be silly in that case.  He is going to do a series on them in his educational segment in the future. 


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-01-23 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  The first one hundred days of Trump:  It remains to be seen, but today we saw some of the rhetoric about trade and breaking NAFTA.  This is what people were worried about.  You will see markets getting a little nervous.  He is looking for markets to go back to levels from around the time of the election in November over the next couple of months.  Trump’s talk to CEOs about taxes to companies that moved production outside of boarders should be negative.  Trump’s administration does not want to go down the road of a process where they get things done without congress.  So far so good in this year’s earnings season, but expectations were high with a rally preceding it.  A lot of good news is priced in. 


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-01-23 WATCH Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

ETF for Demographics.  It would be great if they had an ETF for this.  There is not one in the market, but he thinks someone is working on it.  Maybe in the next couple of quarters one comes out.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2017-01-23 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

ZEB-T & ZWB-T or Buy The Banks Directly?  A covered call strategy takes a lot of work to implement so you would not want to do it yourself.  He thinks without the covered call, this index will come down.  You could buy the six banks yourself if your portfolio was big enough, but the covered call strategy would be a lot to implement yourself.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-01-23 BUY Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

North American Oil.  With Trump turning on the spigots there will be a lot more investment in the oil area.  Despite the oversupply, there is still a lot of money to be made in fracking.  They are getting more efficient every day.  It will be a great growth area.  Buy dips in this area.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-01-23 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  Smart Factor ETFs.  Research affiliates.  He showed a graphic depicting smart factors that look at momentum, volatility, liquidity, profitability, etc.  If you calculate excess returns, on average over history about 40 years you average about 2.4% in excess return.  The average volatility is mostly less than the index.  A second graphic looked at cross correlation of factor returns.  If you put two together in a portfolio you get diversification. 


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-01-23 BUY on WEAKNESS Must be logged in to use chart CPG-T Crescent Point Energy Corp

He sold it and took a small profit.  He trades very short term.  It is a great company and got a lot lower than when he bought it.  He does not like it here.  Wait for the next major down turn.


Price:
$15.390
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
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1 Comment

raziel

April 3rd 2015 at 8:48am

My preferrers have come down substantially as a result of lowered bank rates, I believe. Shouldn't an instrument with a fixed rate go UP when bank rates are lowered?


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