Viewing Expert Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA | StockChase
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Compiling comments that experts make about stocks while on public TV.

Viewing Expert

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA , Chief Investment Officer, Partner

ETF Capital Management Inc.

Address
5160 Yonge St. Suite 1860
Toronto, ON
M2N 6L9

Contact Info
Telephone: 888-383-9753
Fax: 888-383-9753
Website: http://www.etfcm.com


Date Signal Chart Symbol Company Opinion Price
2017-06-26 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  An Italian bank is purchasing for one Euro two Italian regional lenders that were being bailed out, and are now being wound up.  This is the continuation of ‘too big to fail’.  The government is not doing a good enough job of regulating the banks there.  This is going to be troubling for decades to come.  If interest rates go up marginally, you see purchasing coming down.  At the end of the day, fixed income is a safe place to put your money.  There are doubts that Trump can ever cut corporate tax rates all the way to 15%.  This will affect small cap US stocks, which would have benefited tremendously from a big tax cut.  That makes the Russell 2000 index the most expensive in the world, so he is short that index. 


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-06-26 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  Robots.  A lot of boring jobs were replaced by computers and so a lot of jobs have gone away.  Amazon is breaking every space.  They could have cost a million jobs by now.  They are only going to get bigger and bigger in this space.  He feels there will be social problems coming.  From the mid-70s to today, the bottom 50% of people have seen no real growth in their incomes.  The next 40% have seen only a marginal growth.  The top 10% are all doing well.  BOTZ-Q and ROBO-Q are ETFs for robots and they have outperformed the world.  He will love them once we get a market correction.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-06-26 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart CBL-T Callidus Capital Corp

It is specialty financing so they get caught up in the whole HCG-T space.  CBL-T is in a corporate mess.  You have to wait for the dust to settle.  When there is something this acute, the chart and technical analysis are not useful.


Price:
$14.970
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-06-26 BUY on WEAKNESS Must be logged in to use chart CNQ-T Canadian Natural Rsrcs

Energy is his biggest weight in his portfolios and has been for a couple of weeks.  We are at the lower end of the oil price range.  CNQ-T has held up well over the last 5 years.  He does not see the tail risk currently.  You want to buy a quarter or a third into a position and do so on weakness.


Price:
$37.530
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-06-26 HOLD Must be logged in to use chart PDC-T PowerShares Canadian Dividend Index ETF

Canadian dividend index.  You have big exposure to banks and insurance.  It is a fine, diversified mix, and fine as long as we don’t get a pull back in any of the names.  He would have preferred a covered call overlay (e.g. ZWC-T).


Price:
$27.600
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-06-26 WAIT Must be logged in to use chart TD-T Toronto Dominion

The Canadian market has come off about 5% from the highs.  This is why the banks are off from earlier in the year.  There is definitely risk around real estate and the Canadian economy.  Banks are much more attractive at the level they were at about the time of the Trump election and there is a risk they will go there again.


Price:
$65.210
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-06-26 SELL ON STRENGTH Must be logged in to use chart TECK.B-T Teck Resources Ltd. (B)

Steel stocks have been beaten up and he plays it through an ETF.  You have Met. coal in TECK.B-T and so he thinks there is downside potential.  He would sell into rallies.


Price:
$21.900
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-06-26 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart ZEF-T BMO Emerging Mkts Bond Hedged CAD

ZEF-T vs. ZHY-T.  The question is credit risk.  You have emerging market risk with ZEF-T and so you get extra yield.  When you do the correlation of the higher yield, they trade more like an equity than a bond.  ZEF-T is an equity type risk, where as ZHY-T is more like fixed income.  He does not think it is the time to step into either of these.


Price:
$17.080
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-06-26 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart ZHY-T BMO HighYield Corp Bond US Hedge to CAD ETF

ZEF-T vs. ZHY-T.  The question is credit risk.  You have emerging market risk with ZEF-T and so you get extra yield.  When you do the correlation of the higher yield, they trade more like an equity than a bond.  ZEF-T is an equity type risk, where as ZHY-T is more like fixed income.  He does not think it is the time to step into either of these.


Price:
$14.660
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-06-26 WATCH Must be logged in to use chart ZWU-T BMO Covered Call Utilities ETF

80% Canada / 20% US.  It is not a fixed income replacement.  He is not adding to his holding right now.  He loves it as a yield play and would add more if we sold off more aggressively.  He has half a position.


Price:
$14.150
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2017-06-19 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  They de-stressed the stress test for the banks by taking the qualitative aspects out of it.  This week the stress tests will not have much impact.  He thinks we will see negative interest rates in the future.  He does not think the Fed will be able to unwind the balance sheet of the US much.  The equity markets are breaking out to new highs today.  There is a recession sometime in the future that will be hard on the markets.  He is nibbling away at energy producers, mainly through ETFs such as XEG-T, XLE-N, OIH-N.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-06-19 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

ETF similar to ROBO but in Canada.  There aren’t any.  You will have foreign currency risk with all of these.  But even if there was a Canadian one it would have to hold international equities.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-06-19 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Canadian vs. US $ ETF.  He believes the US stock markets have never been more expensive.  A high quality ETF could fall 25% or more in a bear market.  You would still get a yield throughout, however.  BMO is the best at covered call strategies so you might go that way.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-06-19 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Buy US$ now?  He likes to scale into a position.  If you have years to wait, then the CAD$ might get higher.  For the foreseeable future you are looking at $0.78 as the maximum, if that.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-06-19 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Guest: Danielle DiMartino Booth, author of Fed Up.  She is very critical of the Fed.  Credit markets were frozen solid and liquidity was the issue, not interest rates.  9 years later we are not at normalized interest rates.  She thinks eventually we will have social unrest.  Dividend paying stocks are among the most over valued stocks in the index.  Auto and Energy are the two biggest drivers of growth.  Auto sales volumes have rolled over.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-06-19 BUY on WEAKNESS Must be logged in to use chart ALA-T Altagas Ltd

He hates saying you get paid to wait.  He likes ETFs so you are diversified.  It looks like ALA-T is in a trading range.  You could nibble away at it if you like the dividend, however.  Sell at $35.


Price:
$30.590
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-06-19 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart HOU-T HBP NYMEX Oil Bull+ ETF

Double bull oil ETF.  It seems you are at the bottom end of the range in oil prices.  This ETF has the usual problem with leveraged ETFs if you hold them a long time.  HOU-T may not go up if oil is too volatile.


Price:
$5.090
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-06-12 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  The reversal in tech shares is quite meaningful. It stands out as what was leading the markets over the last 6 to 12 months. Look at IYW-N, the tech only ETF that is up 40% year over year, vs. the S&P being up 20%.  If you are a short term trader, you could buy on pull backs, but if you are long term, wait.  Buy when it tests the Trump election night levels, then it is time to step in.  Looking at the UK markets, they don’t like uncertainty.  BREXIT is the first part of the EU coming apart, but 5 years from now the EU won’t exist in its current form.  Italy stands out as the next one to move out.  The soft economic numbers are getting a bit better in Europe, but it is not free and clear.  The US markets are concerned with how the Fed is going to unwind or start to unwind the balance sheet.  It will pull back the liquidity of the markets just a little.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-06-12 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

If we are in a secular bull market, breaking out from $15 and change in the S&P, if we get back to those levels we would be testing the breakout of the market. And he thinks that is highly likely in the next recession.  We don’t know when the next recession will hit.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-06-12 BUY Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Caller looking for an ETF that covers retirement homes.  He has not seen one.  There is definitely a growth story there.  The government is considering a lot more in-home care.  Something investing in that would be a terrific growth story for the next 15 years.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-06-12 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  The US Yield Curve.  There have been three rate hikes: Dec/15, Dec/16 and then Mar/17.  The yield curve is the difference between the two year rate and the 10 year rate in the US.  We have seen a flattening of the curve following each rate hike.  Short term rates are rising while long term rates are falling somewhat.  This historically means that the market is anticipating a slowdown in the economy.  He would be shocked if we did not get a rate hike this week, but that should be it for this year.  Longer term rates will continue to fall.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-06-12 BUY on WEAKNESS Must be logged in to use chart AMD-Q Advanced Micro Devices

He would want to buy pullbacks to the $10 area.  We made a good test in May.  A pullback to that level would indicate a buying opportunity. 


Price:
$12.090
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-06-12 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart MFC-T Manulife Financial

He does like the insurance space.  It is going to be challenged.  Life expectancies are extending and the higher interest rate liabilities are extending.  He thinks rates stay low for the next decade or two.


Price:
$24.110
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-06-12 SELL ON STRENGTH Must be logged in to use chart XLF-N SPDR Financial E.T.F.

He was looking to buy ZUB-T when it was testing multi-month rallies.  This rally is about expected rate hikes from the Fed and he expects they are over.  He would sell into strength on the banks.


Price:
$24.340
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-06-12 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart ZEO-T BMO S&P/TSX Oil & Gas ETF

He was buying the energy sector last week.  Now it is his biggest overweight sector.  If you go back 5 years, the lows of 2011/12 were in the $12 range.  Oil was on its way up to $100.  When oil was $100, this ETF was almost $18 at the peak.  The recent peak was $13 as oil was at $55 late last year.  That is not really that sustainable.  Own it between $11 and $12 and buy or sell below or above these limits.  He is not inclined to add to it here.


Price:
$10.850
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-06-05 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  C-N has an economic surprise index.  The EU is relatively stable over the last 6 months, but the US has really fallen off a cliff over the last 6 months so there have been far more economic reports that are coming out much worse than expected. The markets are making new highs today.  The percentage of stocks that are above their 200 day average is falling, so the breadth of the market is falling.  It does not mean you sell today, but that there is some underlying weakness.  He wants to be cautious this late in the economic cycle.  Credit is driving a lot of potential growth we are having and is masking some of the weaker underlying demographic and other trends that will limit growth for the next couple of decades.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-06-05 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

S&P 500 – 100 points higher or 100 points lower first?  He was taught never to forecast price and time in the same forecast.  But he would say 100 points lower comes first.  He is conservative for clients and establishing options positions.  He is being more defensive.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-06-05 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Bitcoins.  Back to about 2010 when it first started trading, it was worth pennies.  We are at 2600 today.  There is a bubble here.  When it breaks you will get a correction like in 2013, at least 50% and then perhaps it is something to own again.  He thinks we will eventually be a paper-currency-less society.  This is not a currency.  Currencies don’t fluctuate like this.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-06-05 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

How to play defensively. Write put options about 10% below market and take a yield of 4%.  You have to want to buy the market 10% lower.  Energy may not come down that much if markets come down because energy is already down.  It is already at a 50 week low.  He has been nibbling at the energy sector.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-06-05 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

CAD$ vs. Euro.  The Euro has been strengthening.  With an election in Italy we will likely see anti EU parties.  He does not see the CAD$ rallying much and the Euro will likely weaken a little.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-06-05 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  Chart shown of Market Capitalization of the MSCI world metals and mining index vs. capitalization of GOOGL.  GOOGL is now worth more than the base metals sector of the entire world.  The metals and mining index has been coming down with a lot of it being the Chinese growth story tailing off.  Chinese growth is 100% fueled by Chinese debt.  China is the real catalyst for the next global downturn.  He has been watching Dim Sum Bonds.  It is the worst performing bond index in the world.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-06-05 BUY on WEAKNESS Must be logged in to use chart NFI-T New Flyer Industries Inc.

They build buses.  NFI-T and the TSX have negligible correlation.  There is a bus replacement cycle coming and so NFI-T could do very well, irrespective of what markets do.  Earnings growth is reasonable.  It is not expensive.  Buy on pull backs.


Price:
$56.320
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-06-05 BUY Must be logged in to use chart SLX-N Markst Vectors Steel Index E.T.F.

See his educational segment.  The bump we saw in China is over.  China will grow at a much lower rate than the last couple of years.  He is playing SLX-N as the best infrastructure play as it is steel in the US.


Price:
$36.500
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2017-06-05 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart ZMT-T BMO S&P/TSX Base Metals ETF

See his educational segment.  It is not a good buy.  The bump we saw in China is over.  China will grow at a much lower rate than the last couple of years.  He is playing SLX-N as the best infrastructure play as it is steel in the US.


Price:
$9.320
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-06-05 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZWB-T BMO Covered Call Cdn Banks ETF

Dividends aren’t going up.  The premium on the options is lower.  The dividends on the underlying banks are increasing, but the premium on the covered calls has been coming down.


Price:
$17.900
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-05-29 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  It bothers him that Trudeau has no plan in place to balance the budget.  He is concerned about the debt in the world.  It is unsustainable.  Balancing the budget is important to the conservatives.  Trump has been wavering on some of his promises.  He said he does not like German trade.  It is built on export and it does not matter if Trump does not like it.  Markets don’t seem to care what he does now.  Europe is not fixed because France did not elect an anti-EU leader.  Italy has been underperforming the world for decades.  This is a problem.  Their banks should be a leading indicator as we approach the Italian elections.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-05-29 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart CGL-T iShares Gold Bullion ETF

A hedged way to play the gold market.  He has about a third of a position.  Gold equity holdings are much more volatile than gold itself.  If you believe gold is going up then you make more money on the equity side.  We are in the mid-to-upper end of the range of the trading of this ETF.  This is a no growth story.


Price:
$11.090
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2017-05-29 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart CWB-T Canadian Western Bank

Compared to Oil prices over the last 5 years, you can see it is a big proxy.  It is not a perfect correlation, but oil is a huge influence.  CWB-T will be a range trader for the next 5 years.


Price:
$24.560
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-05-29 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZLB-T BMO Low Volatility Cdn Eqty ETF

Low volatility, low beta holding of equities.  It is not fixed income.  They are not risk free and should not replace fixed income in your portfolio.


Price:
$29.960
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-05-29 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZWE-T BMO Europe High Dividend Covered Call Hedged to CAD ET

[In a non-registered account]  The dividend stream coming off a foreign stream is fully taxed.  In registered accounts you can hold foreign holdings that would otherwise be fully taxed. 


Price:
$22.560
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-05-15 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Oil. There has been a big run up in oil because of the agreement between Russia and OPEC, to prolong a series of oil production cuts. The question always is, can they do it and what do the non-OPEC people do. Libya and Nigeria are exempt from caps and have been pumping like mad. The US has been pumping like crazy, and the higher the prices go, the more they are going to continue to pump. He’s not sure there will be the long-term resolution that they would like to see. $50, plus or minus $10 is likely our trading range for the next few years. A few weeks ago, when oil was summing off, that is when he was buying because the prices were a lot cheaper. If we go 4%-5% higher, he will be selling the oil stocks again. Range trading is what he thinks is going to happen.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
_N/A
2017-05-15 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Market. Now that earning season is now over, we go back to global macro again. Oil prices are coming back, which is good for the market, so it should go higher off and on over the next 6 weeks, until we get to the next earnings period. Right now, he thinks the OPEC meeting is going to pull the market into focus. As we get into June, what is the Fed going to do with interest rates. If markets are stable, we are going to see another rate hike.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
_N/A
2017-05-15 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment. He gets a lot of questions on hedging, and this is to show you his favourite indicators, and what are quite popular on the street for figuring out where the Cdn$ might go. A upper part of the chart showed the traded value of the Cdn$ over a two-year span. When it was going up, it indicated the dollar was weakening. The bottom part showed the interest rate differential 2-year US and 2-year Canada. As the differential was rising, the spread to US interest rates, the US yields more than Canada. Money tends to flow towards the higher yielding currency on average. With that in mind, the Fed is likely going to keep raising rates, which is a bit of a negative. However, compared to where the spread was when we were back at the extremes, we are now at the same level spread wise. The chart also showed the correlation of oil to the Cdn$, which pretty much followed. The chart also showed the speculative position in the futures market. Currently, we are at the highest level in terms of net speculative Shorts in the last couple of weeks. That tells him that there is an imbalance in the market. The loonie might be close to a bottom for at least the next 6-12 months. Going out to the end of 2020 on the futures curve on a crude oil chart, we are looking at pretty stable oil prices in and around $50 looking out 4 years.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
_N/A
2017-05-15 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart BAC-N Bank of America

Liquidate? He never recommends liquidating. He likes to scale. If you’ve had a good run and there are good profits, and some potential risks to the downside, then you cut a 3rd. If it keeps going up, then you are still playing, and then you cut another 3rd. he doesn’t think we are going to get back to the levels that were there prior to 2008. Doesn’t see rates going up materially, from this point on. He would be inclined to scale out of bank names.


Price:
$24.060
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2017-05-15 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart HCG-T Home Capital Group

Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernarchi, Janet Yellin have all said things are contained, and housing isn’t an issue. They all say this, because they have to say that. The difference between Canada and the US’s housing bubble years ago, was the tie-in of massive amounts of derivatives to the broad housing sector. Canada doesn’t have that degree of systemic risk, by a long shot. However, if this goes under, it could have ripple effects. There are issues here, and it is probably not over yet. It is a funding story, not a mortgage default story.


Price:
$9.170
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2017-05-15 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ONXS-Q Onyx

Liquidate? He never recommends liquidating. He likes to scale. If you’ve had a good run and there are good profits, and some potential risks to the downside, then you cut a 3rd. If it keeps going up, then you are still playing, and then you cut another 3rd.


Price:
$4.790
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2017-05-15 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart TDIV-Q NASDAQ Technology Dividend ETF

To him, the sector overall is expensive. In 2008-2009 when the markets corrected, technology in the longest, and NASDAQ was the last to correct in a big way. It is probably going to be the same this time. Money will flow to what is still working late in the cycle. He is very, very nervous on the markets, and is not sure he would want to put in a whole lot at this point to technology.


Price:
$32.080
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2017-05-15 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart VZ-N Verizon Communications

Why are industries like this going down? No one really knows. He has been using an ETF IYZ-, which is a more comprehensive, broad-based exposure to telecom in the US. It is cheap relative to the markets over the last year or two. This stock has been a perennial under performer.


Price:
$45.380
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2017-05-15 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZID-T BMO India Equity Hedged to CAD ETF

An ETF on Indian equities, hopefully with a better yield? There is the ZID. There are versions in the US you can buy, but this one is in Cdn$. He loves India long-term. You are not hedged to the currency on this. You are exposed to the fluctuations of the Indian rupee and US$, because there is some US$ imbedded exposure in that.


Price:
$22.830
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2017-05-15 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZPW-T BMO US Put Write ETF.

For a cash account, is a better to have this, or ZPW.U, the US version? Depending on what you want that currency exposure to be, you might want to consider ZPH-T which is a hedged version. Either one of them is fine to hold. If there is a sharp, sharp correction over weeks, these are still going to protect you on the downside, but are still going to have a bigger shock to the downside. These are equity exposures and are not fixed income replacements.


Price:
$19.620
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2017-05-15 BUY Must be logged in to use chart ZWE-T BMO Europe High Dividend Covered Call Hedged to CAD ET

This is the way he is holding Europe in his global dividend strategy. A great way to get a 6%-7% yield out of Europe. The yield has gone down, because the price is gone up significantly over the last year, but it is still a great diversifier away from North American equities.


Price:
$22.630
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Yes
2017-05-15 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZWH-T BMO US High Dividend Covered Call ETF

Exposure with dividends to the US through ETF’s, Dow, S&P, and/or techs? If you want dividends, the NASDAQ is not the place to go. Going back 100 years, the large cap US stock market, S&P has had a dividend yield of about 4%. Currently, the dividend payout is less than half of that. The companies that are not giving extra money back to shareholders in the form of dividends, are giving it back in a different way by buying back shares. If you want a dividend focused strategy, you want to be diversified. The Dow is a bad index because it is poorly weighted. One of his favourite ways to play dividends in the US is through an ETF, ZWH. You are getting a yield of around 3.5%-4% on the dividend side, and it is diversified across all the economic sectors, and has a covered call overlay to enhance the yield.


Price:
$21.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2017-05-08 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  There was a little bit of sell the news in France, but it was the lowest turnout (40%) and 10% did not mark either party on the ballot.  He is pessimistic about it.  Political risk has passed a hurtle but has not turned the corner on risk because of the Italian election coming up.  Italy is far bigger a risk than France in terms of their debt.  Markets have anticipated the victory and the currency has been up over the last couple of weeks.  It is the last part of S&P earnings.  The last leg is the retailers.  News coming out of department stores shouldn’t be that rosy and will put a damper on this earnings season.  A lot of good news is priced in.  Chasing performance this late in the cycle is a fool’s game.  He is in the sell-the-news mode.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-05-08 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  When you invest globally, currency is the most important consideration.  It makes a huge difference to your return.  He showed a chart of long term returns of international ETFs with and without currency hedges.  Currency explains about 70% of the difference in returns.  It is the biggest factor over the years.  This is not the best time to get into Europe except with a currency hedged, covered call ETF.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-05-08 BUY Must be logged in to use chart PSA-T (Not List Purpose High Interest Savings

They have secured high interest savings accounts with various institutions.  They have generated a pretty decent yield and turned it into an ETF yielding about 1%.  It is pretty good yield for a money market. 


Price:
$0.000
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-05-08 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart VSN-T Veresen Inc

Infrastructure and pipelines.  The pipeline sector is not cheap.  Lots of money is going in because there is great dividends.  He holds this through ZWU-T.  It has a covered call overlay and high dividends.  He would not jump into VSN-T because it has flat lined after the takeover offer.


Price:
$18.710
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-05-08 HOLD Must be logged in to use chart WSP-T WSP Global Inc.

He likes the engineering space because they will benefit from infrastructure spending.  They are breaking out to all time highs.  This is a bullish thing for the stock.  Forward earnings estimates make this not look that expensive.  Stay with it until we start to break trend, moving below $43.  (Analysts’ target $51.50).  He does not like the risk/reward and so does not like it.  He does not like it short term.  You can stick with it if the trend continues, but there is not a lot of upside potential.


Price:
$49.800
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-05-08 BUY Must be logged in to use chart ZPH-T BMO US Put Write Hedged to CAD

ZPW-T vs. ZPH-T.  ZPH-T is hedged against currency risk.  The cost of hedging is the differential in the cost of writing the forward contract.  He is fully hedged on all portfolios.  The CAD$ may go back to $.80.  If markets sell off and contracts come into the money they may get taken out.   A 20% down for the market will cause many of their stocks to come down into the money.


Price:
$19.900
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-05-08 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart ZPW-T BMO US Put Write ETF.

ZPW-T vs. ZPH-T.  ZPH-T is hedged against currency risk.  The cost of hedging is the differential in the cost of writing the forward contract.  He is fully hedged on all portfolios.  The CAD$ may go back to $.80.  If markets sell off and contracts come into the money they may get taken out.   A 20% down for the market will cause many of their stocks to come down into the money.


Price:
$19.650
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2017-05-08 BUY Must be logged in to use chart ZWE-T BMO Europe High Dividend Covered Call Hedged to CAD ET

There is always foreign tax withholdings.  You need to focus on the diversification of being in other parts of the world.  The benefits you get from diversification globally override tax considerations.  It has been a pretty clear ride up and is his favourite way to play Europe.


Price:
$22.370
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-05-01 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets. There is not a lot of money in the US budget for a wall – it is a dumb idea.  It is a metaphoric example.  Congress is not willing to work with Trump on a bipartisan basis on anything he wants to do.  When he wants to launch his budget it will be either the fourth quarter this year or Q1 next year, but the market is excited about it.  Going into the summer months there is high risks in the markets as it is priced for perfection.  We are basically at full employment in the US.  He is fully hedged all his portfolios.  73 cents is the low end of the range for him and we hit that last week, although that is not to say it could not go down a little further.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-05-01 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Some of the most effective charts are the double tops.  In the S&P 500 we have not had the confirmation when it takes out the low of the middle of the pattern.  We will know sometime this summer.  He is about a quarter short in his long/short strategy.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-05-01 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Structured Notes.  Through options they can structure a product that preserves capital and gives you some upside.  The cost of these products is huge.  There is no free lunch.  If it makes sense to you then go for it.  You have to know what you are paying.  It could be 5% a year.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-05-01 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

ETF with Monthly Income.  There are suites of them.  He likes XTR-T and FIE-T because they give you diversification.  FIE-T pays out a fixed kind of return, but there is nothing in there that pay outs that much so you are getting some of your capital back.  Both products are fine.  FIE-T has a big concentration in Canadian financials, so there is some concentration risk.  There is no international exposure.  He uses ZWE-T and ZWH-T and ZPW-T to compliment Canadian holdings in registered accounts.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-05-01 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  The Fed in their meeting will debate this week how to reduce the debt. He thinks we are in a liquidity trap.  He does not think we can get back to 3% growth and they can’t raise interest rates much.  Looking at quarterly GDP going back 20 years, the chart has been falling constantly for decades.  The 34 quarters since the Lehman moment have seen us running at 1.5%.  Interest rates first fell dramatically in 2000.  The fed is thinking 3% is what we can get back to.  He does not think so.  The US yield curve 10 years compared to 2 years.  The curve is not saying there will be a recession.  Since they started raising rates the curve has been flattening, so the economy is not handling it.  Look at the fed balance sheet.  It has been flat since QE3 ended in 2014.  The annual GDP was last growing without deficits in 2000.  So the economy is very, very weak. 


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-05-01 BUY Must be logged in to use chart ABX-T Barrick Gold

XGD-T is the market cap weighted way to play the golds.  ZGD-T is another one.  Gold is probably going to be 1100-1350 over the next couple of years.  He would buy dips in the gold names for a return to $1250 over the summer.  It is a good play this summer.


Price:
$22.380
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-05-01 BUY on WEAKNESS Must be logged in to use chart CVE-T Cenovus Energy

It is now back almost at the lows of early 2016.  The oil and gas sectors are getting cheap again and he is starting to buy, but we could see further weakness.  We could see oil prices cooling off and heading back to $40.  Use caution.  He is nibbling and accumulating.  The M&A activity with CVE-T is interesting.  He is not worried about it, but the market thinks it is an issue.


Price:
$13.470
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-05-01 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart HCG-T Home Capital Group

Caller has a bond – wait for maturity to sell?  If it is a going concern and the stock is heading lower, analyze their debt or ask your advisor to do it.  This is the toughest question he has ever had on Berman’s Call.


Price:
$6.960
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-05-01 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart ZQQ-T BMO NASDAQ 100 Equity Hedged-Cdn$

NASDAQ 100 hedged Tech.  Previously this was the last thing to break before markets broke.  He knows of a well known trader who is now shorting the NASDAQ 100 as of last week.  Larry is net short the small NASDAQ companies presently.


Price:
$43.130
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-24 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  The new French leader, Macron, is liked by Europe.  There is still a risk, but most likely we don’t need to worry about France for now, except that eventually the EU will break up.  The world needs pro-business, but eventually he thinks Europe will not work.  Analysts are expecting 70% earnings growth this year on the S&P, which he thinks is out to lunch.  There is lots of room for disappointment, but the market should rally for a least a few weeks.  He would sell this rally.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-04-24 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  US Government Shutdowns.  Valuations are high and this is a ‘risk-off’.  You want to be defensive if you can.  There have been 22 government shutdowns in history.  The most recent two had a small impact on GDP (0.1%).  The market historically gets nervous before a shut down and then is fine afterwards.  From a markets point of view it is a case of buying dips.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-04-24 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart CCL.B-T CCL Industries (B)

He does not know the details of how they are going to split it.  There is research that shows there is a perception that you can buy more shares after a split.  This is a human condition.  There is nothing beneficial in fundamentals.  Trade it if you want but because you like the company and then own it post-split, but don’t buy it just because it is going to split.


Price:
$300.000
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-24 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart XAW-T iShare Core MSCI World of Canada

When you buy a foreign ETF in Canada, you get a dividend tax withholding.  These ETFs have double negative taxation.  They are not the ideal ones to use.  He likes it otherwise for its overall exposure.  It is a fund holding a fund and that causes you to get dinged twice.


Price:
$23.740
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-24 BUY on WEAKNESS Must be logged in to use chart XEG-T iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Energy ETF

The energy sector outperformed the TSX as energy prices recovered last year, but the TSX has continued to go sideways to slightly higher while the energy sector has gone down.  So he has been adding energy.  He bought equal weight ETFs for North American energy exposure.


Price:
$12.510
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2017-04-24 SELL Must be logged in to use chart XRE-T iShares S&P/TSX Capped REIT

REITs.  We are basically coming up to resistance.  He does not think we will break through there.  He is selling REITs and is almost out.  The dividend is not as attractive as in some other sectors.  He would buy REITs if they got back to their lows.  If there is a cyclical recession in the next few years, then REITs will underperform in that kind of environment.


Price:
$16.660
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2017-04-24 WAIT Must be logged in to use chart ZMT-T BMO S&P/TSX Base Metals ETF

An equal weight play on metals.  It has come off significantly from recent highs.  There are massive risks in this sector.  You have to be very, very good on your timing.  He is not stepping in right now.


Price:
$9.590
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2017-04-24 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZPH-T BMO US Put Write Hedged to CAD

ZPW-T vs. ZPH-T. You have 100% equity exposure even though they are miss-classified on many trading platforms that look at what is in them.  They are writing options.  The fixed income holing is just there for margin purposes.  It is a treasury bill so there is no risk to it.  These are not fixed income. 


Price:
$20.060
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-24 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZPW-T BMO US Put Write ETF.

ZPW-T vs. ZPH-T. You have 100% equity exposure even though they are miss-classified on many trading platforms that look at what is in them.  They are writing options.  The fixed income holing is just there for margin purposes.  It is a treasury bill so there is no risk to it.  These are not fixed income. 


Price:
$19.540
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-24 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZWE-T BMO Europe High Dividend Covered Call Hedged to CAD ET

Europe covered call.  Its biggest weighting is France and it sold off in recent weeks and then today is on new highs.  This is the safeness way to play Europe.


Price:
$22.060
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2017-04-17 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  North Korea is not worrying markets.  Trump has shown his willingness to use aggressive force in recent weeks. The risk metrics are giving you warnings signals, but the stock market does not care.  Some key trend lines are being broken globally.  He would not want to put money to work right now.  The French election outcome could be bad for markets.  The rally is starting to break.  Gold should see resistance at $1300, but $1350 would be where we struggle.  He would sell in that range.  China has been the biggest currency manipulator for 35 years.  With Trump saying his dollar is too strong and he wants it lower it is playing the same game.  For the banks, net interest margins have improved, but the capital markets side just isn’t there.  The leadership sectors have rolled over.  He thinks some kind of correction is coming.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-04-17 WATCH Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Where to put US cash to work in ETFs.  There are a bunch of ETFs with a .U after them that trade in Canada, but in US dollars.   He would wait for a pull back of at least 5% before putting money to work.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-17 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Why is Gold going in the opposite direction to gold stocks?  He does not agree.  Look at the XGD-T.  You have some resistance from the highs of a few months ago and will see natural selling there.  If gold gets to $1350 there is potential for more gains.  He thinks we need to break above that, however.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2017-04-17 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  Hedging the Canadian Dollar.  Currency explains about 70% of the difference in returns between markets.  In Canada, the US$ is key.  Currency differences are caused by imports, exports and interest rate differentials.  We are range bound to 70-80 cents for the next few years.  You want to hedge when the Canadian dollar is at the low end of the scale (.73 or below).


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-04-17 WAIT Must be logged in to use chart AAPL-Q Apple

The valuation is not expensive.  He loves it from that perspective.  The Samsung 8 is getting great reviews and that is putting pressure on AAPL-Q.  In a correction it could come back to $120 and would be more attractive there.  Wait for the next iPhone to come out.


Price:
$141.830
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-17 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart AMZA-N InfraCap MLP ETF

AMZA-N is a master limited trust partnerships ETF that plays in the energy space.  It started at $25 and collapsed down to $5.  The yield has come up considerably and he would question its sustainability.


Price:
$10.500
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-17 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart CEFL-N UBS ETRACS Monthly Pay 2xLeveraged Closed-End Fund

CEFL-N looks like a leveraged play which concerns him.  He would stay away from it, but he knows little about how the leverage is used.


Price:
$17.690
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-17 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart CFW-T Calfrac Well Services Ltd

Oil has come off the lows of a year ago.  The trend line is broken and we are seeing higher highs and higher lows so you want to buy into a dip if you believe oil will get better, which he does not.  Trim exposure if it does not break the $5 resistance.


Price:
$3.870
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-17 WATCH Must be logged in to use chart HCG-T Home Capital Group

You need to look at the long term chart.  There are lower lows and lower highs.  You can’t call a bottom.  You have to see a sign that it has turned.  Hedge funds are playing this stock.  There is high risk and no technical evidence that a bottom is in.  It is for high speculators only.


Price:
$22.120
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-17 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart HNU-T HBP NYMEX Nat'l Gas Bull+

A double leveraged play for Natural Gas.  Future prices of gas are already in this.  This is fine for a short term trade of a week or two, but you need to understand the forward nature of the curve.  You need more increase in gas prices than the futures contracts predict.  He does not think there will be a big boom in Natural Gas this summer.  ZJN-T is junior companies and is a better way to play gas.


Price:
$8.260
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-17 WATCH Must be logged in to use chart MEG-T MEG Energy Corp

Look at a 5 year chart.  It looks like there is some stability and that it is turning around, but there are still question marks in his mind.  You need to take out the 2016 highs.


Price:
$6.800
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-10 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  When you look at forward earnings expectations for 2017 the market is looking for 9% growth.  The US analysts are expecting 23% earnings growth there.  They are expecting tax cuts to help earnings, but we are not getting any tax cuts this year.  If we go to GAAP earnings, we are trading at over 25 times earnings.  The last time was in 2000, then 1987 before that.  The markets are expensive.  It is possible that the US debt will be extended beyond April 28th without a bill.  The problem is that Trump wants it to contain funding for the ‘The Wall’.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-04-10 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

ETFs and Tom Caldwell’s Comments last week on BNN.  The ETFs have the liquidity of the underlying equities.  Larry believes Tom was wrong.  Counter party risks are quite small.  Other derivatives out there are much more toxic.  ETFs will not cause a crisis.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-04-10 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Preferred Shares.  They are fine holdings.  The risks are significant moves in interest rates.  In the last few months there were a lot of financial products being built around preferred shares.  This has pushed up the valuations of preferred shares in general.  They could come back down.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-10 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  Why Long Bonds are the Best Way to Diversify your Portfolio.  You have to look at risk and return.  Long bonds have the same or less risk as equities.  You get a better yield from long bonds than from equities based on risk.  Long bonds are the most negatively correlated to equities.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-10 BUY Must be logged in to use chart CBO-T iShares 1-5 yr Ladder Corp Bond ETF

This is a short term laddered bond portfolio up to 5 years.  The bonds are trading at a premium, generally.  Long term you get a decline in the price.  The yield to maturity is closer to 2%.  The real return is positive even though the valuation goes down over time.  Generally it is a very safe instrument.


Price:
$18.990
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-10 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart HMMJ-T Horizon's Medical Marijuana

Medical Marijuana ETF.  You get a diversified basket.  In a broader market correction, these stocks would get hammered.  If we get a down market in the next year, this would be a long term go-to area.  It is completely speculative.  He is not playing it today, but likes the strategy.


Price:
$11.840
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-10 BUY Must be logged in to use chart ZPH-T BMO US Put Write Hedged to CAD

Low Risk ETF with a Monthly Dividend.  It yields 6-7% a year.  It hedges the currency.  There is not a lot of price movement up and down.  It is not risk free, however.  It will go down half as fast as the market in a rapidly declining market.


Price:
$19.990
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-10 SELL Must be logged in to use chart ZRE-T BMO Equal Weight REITs Index

He likes it when the risk adjusted returns are attractive.  Friday he sold REITs in his dividend fund.  If it gets below $18, it would be attractive again because of the yield.


Price:
$20.210
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2017-04-10 BUY Must be logged in to use chart ZWB-T BMO Covered Call Cdn Banks ETF

In a strong upward market it will underperform the equal weight without covered calls.  Despite what others have said, these are not bad for long term holds.  They do not, however, replace fixed income because you have equity exposure.


Price:
$18.870
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-10 BUY Must be logged in to use chart ZWU-T BMO Covered Call Utilities ETF

In a strong upward market it will underperform the equal weight without covered calls.  Despite what others have said, these are not bad for long term holds.  They do not, however, replace fixed income because you have equity exposure.


Price:
$14.180
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-03 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  He believes governments should not be involved and let capitalism play out for Bombardier.  There should be policies in place to avoid conflicts of interest.  Failing companies should be left to fail.  The US tax reform is going to require a border tax.  We don’t know what it will look like.  This is the beginning of very difficult period.  He is betting that Trump will do something wrong.  Some of the weakness today is just the Market.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-04-03 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Dividend Growth Smart ETF.  SPHB-N and SPLV-N are suggestions.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-03 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Hedged or Unhedged Products.  Many investors pay a lot for changing back and forth between currencies.  For now he thinks we get down to 72 cents to the US dollar.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-03 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  The French election is coming up at the end of April and is not priced into the markets.  There were two elections last year that did not go the way the pollsters predicted.  This is a market risk.  VT-N dropped as we got into the US election last year.  It went 5% below peak.  The Brexit decline was similar.  If we go to an Anti EU government in France it will be very negative for the markets.  ZWE-T is the way to play this.  He buys into dips, but is underweight.  If it gets back down to $19.40 you should get back into it.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-04-03 HOLD Must be logged in to use chart ZID-T BMO India Equity Hedged to CAD ETF

India.  He really likes India and small caps are the way to play it.  He started to get out when we started re-testing the highs.  He is going to buy dips in India because he loves the story.  He makes decisions based on risk and return.  If you like it long term then stick with it.


Price:
$21.700
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2017-04-03 WEAK BUY Must be logged in to use chart ZJG-T BMO Junior Gold Index ETF

Junior gold miners.  It is not linked to gold.  They go up and down relative to the price of gold, but many don’t have production.  He thinks gold is going to break out and will pop to $1350.  It should retest last year’s highs.  Junior gold stocks should test highs also.  He does not like the speculative names.


Price:
$9.040
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2017-04-03 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZWB-T BMO Covered Call Cdn Banks ETF

30% was return of capital in 2016.  In the beginning of 2016 there was about 65 million units outstanding.  By the end there were 5 million new units.  They then had to pay out on additional shares.  They do a return on capital so that everyone gets the same amount of payout.  You are not getting your own money back.  It is an adjustment because there are now more units.  This is the structure of a growing fund.


Price:
$18.890
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-04-03 BUY Must be logged in to use chart ZWE-T BMO Europe High Dividend Covered Call Hedged to CAD ET

A diversified basket of high dividend covered calls are something he likes.  He would consider adding ZWC-T.  If we go into a 20% bear market then an ETF like these will only fall about 80% of the downside of the market in general.  Also, look at ZWU-T in a recession.


Price:
$21.710
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-27 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets.  The sentiment on the street regarding the failure to launch the repeal of the health care act is that the tax changes will also be tough.  The big interest is in the mid-term election in 2018.  If it is not attached to a budget then nothing is going to get done.  The most logical thing is for the market to sell off to where it was before the Trump election.  This morning there are dip buyers coming in.  He thinks through April we will continue to drift lower to where we were before the Trump election.  It is the physiology about how markets work. You have to test the confidence.  He did not adjust positions on Friday because he expected it to fail.  There is major execution risk with Trump policy.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-03-27 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Educational Segment.  It is the 10th year anniversary of the show.  He often gets the comment that he is always bearish.  But he thinks he is optimistic.  He looks at the risk side before the returns side of investing.  Beta is the sensitivity to the market risk.  When he is considering buying anything he thinks about the risk index.  ZEB-T graph compared to the world index looked at the weekly return and then he finds the trend.  The slope of .65 tells him the sensitivity to the world index.  At this level about 50% is related to sector risk.  He decides how much of the decision relates to the world, or to sector or to the specific stock.  XEG-T is the Canadian energy sector, compared to the world it is more sloped, meaning it is more risky.  He needs to weigh the macro factors more in this case.  SU-T has a lower correlation to the energy sector because there is less risk and that is because of their refining business.  Energy is starting to look interesting now.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-03-27 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ALA-T Altagas Ltd

6.8% is a pretty high yield.  If the outlook for Nat Gas is going to be suppressed for the next couple of years then the dividend is at risk.


Price:
$30.980
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-27 SPECULATIVE BUY Must be logged in to use chart BTL-X BTL Group Ltd.

Within 20 years the world will be paperless in terms of currency.  Central banks and governments are absolutely broke.  Getting rid of the grey economy would really help.  When there is no cash in the system it eliminates all that.  This is one of the earliest types of this process.  It is an interesting concept.


Price:
$3.150
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-27 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart HHL-T Healthcare Leaders Income Fund

The US healthcare bill having failed Friday puts some risk into the sector.  He would be fine if it fell back to support levels, but would not step in today, otherwise it is a fine quality holding.


Price:
$8.400
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-27 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart HRT-T Harte Gold Corp

They have never had any revenue.  Nobody knows what will happen so they are speculative.  He thinks gold will have a rally up to $1350 if we go unto uncertain on the equity market.  ZJG-T is a junior gold ETF and a better way to play it.


Price:
$0.530
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-27 WAIT Must be logged in to use chart TD-T Toronto Dominion

He is cautious on banks as they are starting to pull back.  If we go through a period of uncertainty, all these stocks come back to where they broke out from, otherwise he is comfortable buying here.


Price:
$65.130
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-27 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZLE-T BMO Low Volatility Emerging Markets Equity

You typically get one payout a year from emerging market ETFs.  Generally emerging markets pay out a larger dividend.  He would look for the distribution to settle out at about 2%.  The difference between this and VEE-T is that is it is low volatility. 


Price:
$21.590
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-27 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ZWB-T BMO Covered Call Cdn Banks ETF

Covered call banks, but ZWC-T covers more economic sectors.  Banks are 21% of the TSX and are that potion of ZWC-T.


Price:
$18.870
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-27 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart ZWE-T BMO Europe High Dividend Covered Call Hedged to CAD ET

It is a broad, European, covered call strategy.  It could easily fall 10-15% minimum.  Don’t put new money to work here now.  Europe overall is pretty cheap, however. 


Price:
$21.600
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-20 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

G20 Statement. Although tepid, he thinks they are supporting free trade, but probably under a lot of duress from the first real official global meeting with the Trump policy being pushed towards the world. The US is the biggest economy in the world, so what they want tends to typically happen. This is why markets were concerned about the anti-trade, and the original reason why futures market sold off aggressively the night of the election. It is concerning. However, it is not measured in weeks and days or the next tick on the chart; it is a long-term strategic policy. While he is very optimistic and bullish on the need for lower taxes overall, he is concerned about the lack of trade. However, we have seen slower trade globally. Looking at the Baltic Dry Index and the freight rates that are being charged, they have been in a slow decline for years, so it is not anything new. If the biggest economy, the US, is not participating, there will be less trade globally. The US has a surplus against Canada and are not really fighting us, but they’ve made strong statements on softwood lumber as an example. They have a deficit against Mexico, which is where they want to improve and bring stuff and make America great again, and America 1st. We are going to see lots of this for years to come.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-03-20 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Crude oil. He is not bearish in that we are going back to the $20s, but he wants to see what OPEC is going to do. There is some compliance, but it is Saudi Arabia that is more compliant than a lot of the other partners. There is some weakness in OPEC, which is what he expected. Oil shouldn’t be at $55, but should probably be closer to $45.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
STOCKS & ETFs
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
Showing 1 to 120 of 2,309 entries
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1 Comment

raziel

April 3rd 2015 at 8:48am

My preferrers have come down substantially as a result of lowered bank rates, I believe. Shouldn't an instrument with a fixed rate go UP when bank rates are lowered?


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