Viewing Expert Don Vialoux | StockChase
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Compiling comments that experts make about stocks while on public TV.

Viewing Expert

Don Vialoux , Research Analyst

TimingTheMarket.CA & EquityClock.COM

Contact Info

Website: http://www.horizonsetfs.com/


Date Signal Chart Symbol Company Opinion Price
2017-09-08 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Market. September is the weakest month for stocks globally. The first 5 trading days this month have all been on the downside. On a seasonality basis, the market drops dramatically, and then tends to pull up around the middle of October. Every year, something unusual happens between the middle of June and mid-October, which causes volatility in the markets. Last year it was BREXIT and the previous year was China. 2008 was a world financial crisis. The VIX, at this time of year, from July right through until the middle of October, has a strong period of seasonal volatility. This year there have been several little spikes along the way, but hasn’t shown up strongly this year. What could be the spike this year? It could be North Korea, a couple of hurricanes in the Gulf, problems with Trump getting his agenda through Congress. There are all kinds of things happening in the next few weeks, which could trigger that scenario. Prior to the release of 3rd quarter results, analysts historically have been overly optimistic with their estimates in the 1st half. When it gets to September, they rethink and decide to pull the numbers back a little, which causes markets to come under pressure. Right around the middle of October through to the end of the year, the economically sensitive areas get particularly strong. Also, historically the months of January and into early February have been some of the weaker ones for the year.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & SEASONAL INVESTING
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-09-08 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Oil? Crude oil has a period of seasonal strength from late January right through until May of each year, and does extend into September, but from September through until January it tends to move lower. The time to play crude oil is in the spring. Technically, it is getting close to a longer-term support level, but is still in a downward trend.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & SEASONAL INVESTING
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-09-08 N/A Must be logged in to use chart A Commentary A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

What sector should I be in now, and what is the next sector we are rotating into? Gold and gold equities still look very good. There are also gassy stocks (see Top Picks). A sector that is starting to show some promise after a big move on the downside, is agriculture. These are very short seasonal trades. The big moves for seasonality comes around the middle of October, when sectors that are economically sensitive really start to click in.


Price:
$0.020
Subject:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & SEASONAL INVESTING
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
_N/A
2017-09-08 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart AAPL-Q Apple

Virtually every year, they announce new products which usually come out around the beginning of October. Historically, this moves higher prior to the announcement. Seasonality ends after they have made the announcement of new products. In this case, the announcement is going to be coming on September 12th. We are getting very close to the end of the seasonal strength. If you own it, you might want to take some money off the table at around September 12.


Price:
$158.630
Subject:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & SEASONAL INVESTING
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-09-08 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart ARE-T Aecon Group Inc

He doesn’t know the seasonality of this particular stock. However, the company has been in the news in the last little while, as they have put themselves up for sale. The technical impact of this is very positive. The stock had been in an upward trend for the past 8 months, and on that news, it broke into a new high. It has overhead resistance at around $19.30. Looks quite interesting at current prices.


Price:
$17.320
Subject:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & SEASONAL INVESTING
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-09-08 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart BABA-N Alibaba Group Holding

To get a seasonal study, you have to have at least 20 years of data, and this one has only been around for about 4 years. However, technically, the chart shows a distinct upward trend, it is outperforming the market and the momentum is positive. It’s got everything you would want to be Long on the security.


Price:
$169.000
Subject:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & SEASONAL INVESTING
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-09-08 PAST TOP PICK Must be logged in to use chart CASH CASH

(A Top Pick June 2/17.)


Price:
$0.010
Subject:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & SEASONAL INVESTING
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2017-09-08 TOP PICK Must be logged in to use chart CASH CASH

We are just entering into the period of seasonal weakness in the Canadian market. The TSE Composite drops about 2.5% in the month of September. Usually it bottoms around the middle of October and then goes higher. Now is the time to have a nice cash position, and wait for opportunities as they start rising around the middle of October.


Price:
$0.010
Subject:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & SEASONAL INVESTING
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2017-09-08 DON'T BUY Must be logged in to use chart ENB-T Enbridge

Technically, this has just broken a support level today. The stock is in a downward trend, so there is downside risk technically. It has yet to show signs of bottoming. Historically, it has done well in the summer, but is just not doing it this year. There are better opportunities elsewhere.


Price:
$49.210
Subject:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & SEASONAL INVESTING
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-09-08 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart F-N Ford Motor

The auto sector has a very, very strong seasonality in the spring time. That is when the big car buying season occurs. This year it wasn’t so much. Technicals are not looking very good. The stock is in a distinct downward trend. It recently broke below a new support level. Wait until spring of next year.


Price:
$11.360
Subject:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & SEASONAL INVESTING
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-09-08 TOP PICK Must be logged in to use chart FCG-N 1stTr ISE Natural Gas E.T.F.

Recently, this has been forming a base pattern, which is typically of what would happen around the 3rd week of September and moving higher until the middle of December. Natural gas has been forming a nice little base pattern, and a couple of days ago moved above that very briefly. Usually, the stocks themselves, don’t move that quickly. We are not quite at the 3rd week in September, so currently the securities are forming a nice base pattern. Natural gas inventories in the US are right around where they should be on a 5-year basis, however, there are 2 hurricanes going into the Gulf, which is the largest natural gas producing area in the US. Because of this, in the next few weeks, natural gas inventories will not be building quite so much.


Price:
$19.210
Subject:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & SEASONAL INVESTING
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2017-09-08 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart FTS-T Fortis Inc.

Historically this had a very strong seasonality during the summer as the rest of the market languished. It only does very well until the beginning of November. Chart shows it has already established an upward trend, and it would be nice to see it move above its current level, which would confirm that it is in an upward trend. A good seasonal trade right through until the beginning of November.


Price:
$45.670
Subject:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & SEASONAL INVESTING
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-09-08 PAST TOP PICK Must be logged in to use chart FXH-N 1st TrHealth Care ETF

(A Top Pick June 2/17. Up 2%.) This peaked right around the 3rd week of July, which is what he had predicted. From its high point to now, the stock is down about 3%. If you had owned the Cdn ETF (FHH-T), exactly the same product, it would have been down 10%, because of the Cdn$ moving higher.


Price:
$67.380
Subject:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & SEASONAL INVESTING
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2017-09-08 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart HBC-T Hudson Bay Co.

Seasonality doesn’t really apply, because they have been going under a major restructuring. Fundamental analysts say it has real estate value at around $35 a share, and is currently trading at $12.75. There have been some activist investors trying to get the company to do something with the assets, such as capitalizing them and making them into condos. During the last couple of days, the stock has been in a trading range, and yesterday it broke above that base building pattern, for the 1st time in 6 months, which is very, very bullish. He would guess that there are some activist investors behind this scenario that are boosting the value of the stocks.


Price:
$12.660
Subject:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & SEASONAL INVESTING
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
2017-09-08 COMMENT Must be logged in to use chart HBM-T Hudbay Minerals Inc.

Just announced a $250 million deal, so it is under pressure today. They are expanding their operations and are raising some money to build more mines. That is a good thing. Seasonally, it has a history of moving higher a couple of times during the year. One has just passed at the beginning of August, but its best period is normally from October until March. Currently, the stock has gotten very close to its previous high. Once the new issue is out of its way, you can expect the stock, at around the beginning of October, to enter its period of seasonal strength, and will test its previous high. If it breaks that previous high, then you are looking at it moving significantly higher right through until spring.


Price:
$9.800
Subject:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & SEASONAL INVESTING
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Unknown
Showing 1 to 15 of 1,838 entries
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4 Comments

stevedandy

December 31st 2012 at 1:24pm

Love Don Vialoux's analysis of seasonal strength or weakness in regards to stock sectors. The patterns of seasonality that he points out are so interesting.

BeauRegard

January 21st 2015 at 1:58pm

Excellent point you make. Excellent stock to own.

Rob B

June 24th 2015 at 4:52pm

If you like palm reading you'll like Don. I think most of the seasonality stuff he makes up as he goes along. His analysis is on seasonality, even he admits has lots of exceptions. Can't figure how he lasted in the industry so long.

BeauRegard

July 7th 2015 at 1:09pm

Rob B
He has a kindly face...???
;>)


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