Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)

One of Canada's largest natural gas producers. Inflation will be good for energy producers. Energy starting to get strength as a sector. Strong sector tailwinds. Company not looking to grow through M&A. Owns assets 100% which is very profitable. Exposure to international pricing - locking in LNG contracts which is very profitable. 

Very strong business with excellent technical analysis. Natural gas price weakness not affecting business. Would recommend for long term investor. Stock trend moving up and to the right. 

A 5% weighting for him, a sneaky way to get exposure to gas and condensate, the largest in Canada. Disciplined managers. Trades at a discount to TOU-T. Trades at a 10% free cash flow yield. $38.50 price target or 57% upside.

(A Top Pick Dec 12/22, Up 38%)

Continues to hold shares. Despite weakness in natural gas prices, company continues to perform. Excellent long term hold. Very strong management team who is focused on costs. 

It is a soft spring for gas prices and we have had a very warm winter, therefore the demand is down. The interest has been in technology and AI. The market has tightened up recently and money has come back. It is at multi year high. It is 50% natural gas and 50% liquid gas, which he considers similar to oil. He owns Tourmaline for gas exposure and CNQ for oil exposure. If he owned another it would be ARC which covers both sectors. It is good for returning money to shareholders.

Looks good. If it can break through current levels, really good potential for a continuation. Right now, it's a Buy. Exit or reduce your position if drops below $21.80.

ARX's Q4 profit fell 32% on lower natural-gas prices, even as production rose to a record it does not expect to reach again in 2024. EPS came in at $0.84 and did however beat estimates of $0.50. Revenue also beat estimates coming in at $1.6B versus forecasts of $1.24B. Funds from operations fell 29% to $699.2 million, or $1.16 per share. Production rose 1.5% to a record 365,248 barrels of oil equivalent per day, while its average price per barrel equivalent fell 37%. ARX said it expects 2024 production to drop to around 355,000 boepd, with capital spending of around $1.8 billion. On a production and cash generation basis, ARX beat analysts forecasts which makes it a nice quarter even though the company was hampered by weak oil prices which hurt it profitability wise. We think this was a solid quarter from ARX and it good to see record level production along with surpassing expectations. 
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One of his favourite names. Nice growth rate compared to peers, more reasonable valuation than peers. Good dividend. As long as you have commodity prices not working against you, a name to buy.

Larger company with excellent assets and cap table. Higher capitalization allows for better valuation. Does not own shares. Better options for investors in sector. 

Mid-cap energy stocks have been strong, even with reduced fund flows from pension and ESG funds. WCP and ARX will continue to do well.

Never sell just for tax reasons. Whenever he's done this, it's been a mistake. Instead, ask yourself if your thesis still holds for owning the stock? If yes, hold on. If not, let it go.

Tremendous run over the last years. Might get commodity price softness. If we do, look to buy below $20 for the long term; really likes it mid-high teens. LNG Canada will benefit. Owns a lot of its own infrastructure, which insulates from commodity price swings. Free cashflow yield is in mid-teens, dividend increases, organic growth. Yield is 3.3%.

Operate in natural gas (60-65% of operations), oil and liquids. Well-capitalized, and over time give back 70% of free cash flow to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. Surprised many with their capex plans that will grow barrels per day only modestly, but they consistently have increased production. He's bullish energy. A good core holding.

A behemoth in the Montney region. Good cost control, highly regarded management. Close second to TOU, always one of his Top Picks. Pretty good performance relative to peers. Be patient. $25 would not be difficult, especially as LNG builds out in Canada and prices firm up globally.

Expecting a $26 share price. Long term investors will be rewarded. Growing production very good for investors. Lots of inventory. Excellent management team. Waiting for share price to fall before buying. Natural gas pricing fundamental for company.