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Birchcliff Energy Ltd. Stock Symbol: BIR-T

Last Price Recorded: $7.4100 on 2017-03-27

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Date Signal Expert Opinion Price
2017-03-23 DON'T BUY Eric Nuttall

He does not like any of the peers enough to own them.  It is going to be another year of pipeline outages in Canada.  But if you wanted to own one, this would be it.  He recently exited it to put money into service stocks.  He has a lot of respect for the management team.  It is going to be a bumpy ride to get to is target price.


Price:
$7.200
Subject:
ENERGY
Bias:
BULL on OIL
Owned:
No
2017-03-15 WATCH Don Vialoux

A gassy stock and has very strong seasonality, historically from around the last week in January right through until approximately the middle of May. However, it is not happening this year, so wait until the technicals confirm that seasonal trends are actually occurring. This is still in a downward trend.


Price:
$6.870
Subject:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & SEASONAL INVESTING
Bias:
CAUTIOUS
Owned:
Unknown
2017-03-14 DON'T BUY Daniel Lloyd

A Canadian natural gas focused producer. He is bearish on Canadian natural gas, so would want to avoid a name like this. The Canadian natural gas space is going to have problems competing with the US shale industry.


Price:
$6.560
Subject:
CANADIAN
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2017-02-21 BUY Alex Ruus

(Market Call Minute.) A solid, solid gas producer on the West Coast.


Price:
$7.580
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Unknown
2017-02-16 COMMENT Fabrice Taylor

Best in class, smaller natural gas producer.  Good management.  Good at increasing their reserves and managing costs.  It is just a play on gas prices.


Price:
$7.840
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN
Bias:
SELECTIVE
Owned:
No
2017-02-10 COMMENT Craig Porter

A gas producer, but one of the better ones. Very rich liquids gas. They’ve also done a fair bit of hedging. Although the price of gas has fallen dramatically, companies are finding that development costs have also fallen dramatically. He likes the company.


Price:
$7.850
Subject:
RESOURCE
Bias:
BULLISH on OIL
Owned:
Unknown
2017-02-09 COMMENT Jim McGovern

Just released really, really strong results. Terrific operators and have great properties. He is a little concerned with the natural gas price not going up dramatically from here. Also, you should be a little cautious about the border adjustment tax Trump is floating and its impact on Canadian E & P companies.


Price:
$7.950
Subject:
GLOBAL EQUITIES & MACRO STRATEGIES
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
No
2017-01-31 TOP PICK Eric Nuttall

Predominantly a gas producer. Trading at a material discount relative to its gassy peers on a production per share growth over the next couple of years. They’ve picked off a great asset from Encana (ECA-T), and part of it has exploration access in the D2 zone, a liquids rich oily zone. He expects results in mid-March and is optimistic they will be successful. They have an internally financed ability to grow production very meaningfully over the next 5 years. Trading at 5.2X, and he thinks it will be able to gain an 8 multiple over the next 18 months, a 65% upside from today’s level. Dividend yield of 1.24%. (Analysts’ price target is $12.70.)


Price:
$8.020
Subject:
ENERGY
Bias:
OPTIMISTIC
Owned:
Yes
2017-01-09 WAIT Josef Schachter

He is a big fan.  The stock did exceedingly well from the first quarter of last year.  They are a modular growth player so there is growth built in every few years.  The stock is backing off with the decline of natural gas.  They are a very low cost operator.  It is a core name for investors once we get through a little bit of a shakeup. 


Price:
$8.500
Subject:
OIL & GAS
Bias:
BEAR on OIL
Owned:
Unknown
2017-01-06 COMMENT Matt Kacur

This has always been kind of a gas name, and gas is very difficult. The track record is pretty good, having earned as high as 9% return a couple of years ago. It is lower now though, just because the commodity price is lower. He would expect this to rebound, and if it can rebound to a 9% return internally, the stock is worth about $11.


Price:
$8.950
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN
Bias:
BULLISH
Owned:
No
2017-01-05 HOLD Brian Acker, CA

The model price is $13.81, a 50% upside from here.  The stock has been consolidating since July.  He would hold on.  Materials could outperform here.  There are no transits on this stock. 


Price:
$9.030
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULL
Owned:
Unknown
2016-12-06 TOP PICK Mason Granger

All 3 picks have recently done fairly transformative acquisitions. He wants to own companies that have institutional following and access to capital markets and could do smart acquisitions at the bottom of the cycle. A natural gas producer and has a Pouce Coupe asset. His issue historically has been that they have always had too much debt, but they did a $625 million acquisition of a Gordondale asset that is contiguous to their Pouce Coupe asset. The 2 fit together really well. It has the effect of lowering the decline rate, and he thinks has increased the cash flow profile. They also brought down their balance sheet leverage. Has a five-year growth plan in place that is entirely funded by internally generated cash flow. He can see this being in the mid-teens by next year. Dividend yield of 1.04%. (Analysts’ price target is $12.35.)


Price:
$9.620
Subject:
CANADIAN ENERGY
Bias:
UNKNOWN
Owned:
Yes
2016-11-09 DON'T BUY Daniel Lloyd

He used to be short.  It was a decent trade.  Canadian natural gas producers are in a tough place given that they might be pushed out of their biggest end market, i.e. the US.  If you need Nat gas exposure in Canada then this is not bad, but he does not think one needs Canadian gas exposure.


Price:
$8.910
Subject:
CANADIAN
Bias:
BEARISH
Owned:
No
2016-10-13 HOLD Michael Simpson, CFA

They made a transformation a couple of months ago to more Natural Gas. The Americans are looking at our Natural gas companies.  If we have that colder winter we expect, it will do well.


Price:
$9.400
Subject:
NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias:
BULLISH on US MARKET
Owned:
Yes
2016-10-07 TOP PICK Eric Nuttall

His favourite Montney pick because it is trading at discount multiples because it is new. People still haven’t appreciated how much they’ve improved the balance sheet, how they’ve reduced Seymour Shulick’s ownership, liquidity has improved, overall asset quality has improved, inventory has improved, and most importantly leverage has come down. Trading at 6.2X next year and less than 5X 2 years out compared to the peers who are trading at 7 or 8. It could be a $16 or higher stock.


Price:
$9.480
Subject:
ENERGY & SMALL CAP EQUITIES
Bias:
BULLISH on OIL
Owned:
Yes
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