A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

Markets have done well in Canada and the US. The Canadian 10-year bond yield vs. TSX over the past year: when the Bank of Canada pivoted last October into a QE-easing stance, bond yields immediately began declining, but lifted to start the year when it looked like we'd have to push rates out further. Interesting that the stock market continued to rally. There's more of focus on the economy staying strong and less on when rates will be cut. He expects a cut in June and maybe end of July, and Canada to cut before the US given our huge exposure to housing (our mortgages roll over after 5 years).

It used to be 60/40 stocks/bond split in a portfolio, but bonds aren't as stable as they used to be, given more volatility. The ratio depends on your age and risk tolerance. Younger people own only stocks. He owns some bonds, but you don't always need to hold bond.

One type is a rate-reset: every 5 years will reset to a percentage above the Bank of Canada 5-year bond. The other type is a perpetual preferred, which pays the same rate forever. They act almost like bonds, paying a straight yield. The issuing company can call back these preferreds, which explains why the market for these has shrunk a lot.

Interest rates will decline, so you future GIC rate will also decline. So will bond yields, but bond prices will rise. But bonds are more flexible--you can sell them anytime while GICs are a waiting game. He prefers short-term bonds, so buy those. Could yield 4-6%.

As investors buy the longer-end, it will force yields down and prices up, lower the short end and increase the long end. You could do well on the long end. He isn't going beyond 4 years, so that he can clip a higher yield. The government curve is very inverted now.

Believes there are signs of resurgence in industrial & manufacturing activity across the economy. Supply chain issues starting to resolve themselves. Expecting growth will continue globally, as long as inflation doesn't remain high. Upcoming CPI numbers will indicate state of global economy. If inflation rates aren't too high, interests rates may fall. Energy & materials complex starting to lead markets, while technology stocks are lagging. Will continue to own stocks (not selling) despite risk of inflation spike, and risk of recession. 

Upcoming earning season will be indicative of economy. Geo-political issues a concern, but shouldn't affect investors portfolio. Recent earnings from JP pointing towards strong consumers. Strong economy will create environment where US Fed is not able to cut interest rates. Larry Summers and others think interest rates need to rise (not fall). Expecting interest rates to remain high - economy too strong. Inflation numbers also remain sticky (not falling as quickly as forecast). Believes tech sector speculation is reason for strength in S&P 500 (not concrete strength in economy). 

Geo-political tensions are worrisome, but should not affect construction of investor portfolio. "Panic buying/selling" not a good way to mange investments. Quality companies will perform regardless of tensions in Middle East. When others "panic sell" - can be a good buying opportunity for disciplined investors. Interest rates & inflation are much more important to investors. Underlying fundamentals of companies (debt, cash flow, margins, management etc.) are the preferred indicators to company health. 

What is a "Covered Call"?

A covered call involves an investor who holds a long position in a stock, selling call options on a portion of the position they hold. This can be a bit confusing, but one way to intuitively think about it is that the investor is selling the right for someone else to buy their stock at a prespecified price. So, the investor who holds the stock benefits from being paid the call premium while the buyer of the option will only exercise it if the price rises. The ideal scenario for an investor using covered calls is if the option is not exercised which means they get to keep the premium and do not have to sell shares at a loss. In the event that the call option is exercised, the investor is taking a loss by selling shares below their market value, but this is partially offset by the appreciation of the holdings that the investor did not sell calls on.
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Would buy a 2-year note paying a near-4.9% yield. A great place to hide.

The market is up so much since the Oct. 27 lows. History says that we are due for a correction and tech is vulnerable. He's sell tech (take profits). The markets are 100% frothy.

Believes mechanical buy signals on gold, US 10 Year Yields, WTI Crude. Markets faced with difficult road ahead (valuations too high). Expecting markets to fall in the short term, but long term - is bullish. Business cycles generally follow 4 year intervals. 15% upside target on S&P 500 in the long term. Bull market cycle believed to have started in 2022. Expecting support at the 5000 level for the S&P 500.

Market Update:

The US consumer price index (CPI) in March came in hotter than expected, a 3.5% annual gain compared to the economist forecast of 3.4%, indicating the June rate cut becomes unlikely. On the other hand, the Bank of Canada held its interest rate steady at 5%, mentioning it needs to see clear evidence that progress on inflation is sustained before any rate cut. The Canadian dollar was 72.9 cents USD. The U.S. S&P500 ended the week flat, while the TSX was down 0.3%.

It was a mixed week of greens and reds. Materials rose 3.4%, while energy gained 1.9%. Consumer staples and industrials edged up by 1.0% and 0.5%, respectively. Real estate stayed flat while financials slid by 1.1%, while information technology and consumer discretionary both ended the week down 0.8%. The most heavily traded shares by volume were Toronto-Dominion Bank, Crescent Point Energy and Argonaut Gold.
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That's right. Belatedly for Canadians, we've seen the S&P/TSX Composite Index join its US equity index counterparts breaking out to fresh all-time highs in the last couple of weeks. He's increasingly encouraged with the durability of this ongoing cyclical bull market, in no small part due to the fact that it has broadened out.

In Q1, we saw 9 of the 11 economic sectors in Canada participate in the rise in the equity indices; 10/11 sectors in the US. Notable laggards are the interest-sensitives of utilities, telecoms, and real estate. 77% of all S&P 500 index members rose in Q1; 69% here in Canada. Historically, pretty strong breadth numbers. The foot soldiers are advancing alongside the generals (Mag 7). This increases confidence in the bull market.