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| Dennis Mitchell, CFA of Sentry Select Capital Corp |
|---|
| The Exchange Tower |
| 130 King Street West, Suite 2850 |
| Toronto ON |
| M5X 1A4 |
| 416-861-8729 |
| Dennis Mitchell, CFA's website |
| Toll Free: 1-888-246-6656 |
| Fax: 416-364-1197 |
| info@sentryselect.com |
| TOP PICK | First Capital Realty | FCR-T | 14.190 | Grocery, drug store and retail anchored. Rock solid cash flow. Did very well in the downturn. 5.73% yield. | 2010-08-20 | ||
| TOP PICK | Allied Properties REIT | AP.UN-T | 21.020 | Buy Class I office buildings (brick and beam) in Toronto, Montreal, Quebec and Calgary. Great management and great assets and a very strong cash flow. This quarter and next will be rocky because of occupancy issues. Under $20 is a great buying opportunity. | 2010-08-20 | ||
| TOP PICK | Brookfield Properties Corp. | BPO-N | 14.120 | Good assets, good management, low payout and lower leverage. Entering into Australia. Divesting their residential business. Will be the global landlord for major companies. | 2010-08-20 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Calloway REIT | CWT.UN-T | 22.180 | (A Top Pick July 20/09. Up 83.69%.) Still likes but a little expensive right now. | 2010-08-20 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Canadian Real Estate Investment | REF.UN-T | 29.800 | (A Top Pick July 20/09. Up 31.34%.) Still likes but a little expensive right now. | 2010-08-20 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Killam Properties Inc | KMP-T | 9.070 | (A Top Pick July 20/09. Up 61.93%.) Still likes but a little expensive right now. | 2010-08-20 | ||
| BUY | Primaris Retail REIT | PMZ.UN-T | 18.730 | Rumours of takeover are not correct. Great company. Purchased 3 assets recently and with their history they should do great things with them. | 2010-08-20 | ||
| BUY on WEAKNESS | Chartwell Seniors housing | CSH.UN-T | 8.120 | Historically has not like this name but they changed management, de-levered balance sheet and cut distributions twice. Assets are good, so stepped in after 2nd cut and has done very well. Try to get in the $7’s. | 2010-08-20 | ||
| BUY on WEAKNESS | Northwest Healthcare Property REIT | NWH.UN-T | 11.430 | Medical office buildings in GTA. Didn't get in on IPO because of concerns of underwriting, cash flow and occupancy. In 2 quarters following IPO the concerns occurred but not to any great extent and were ignored by the market. Currently re-evaluating. Too rich so try to buy in the $10 area. | 2010-08-20 | ||
| DON'T BUY | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | REIT convertible debentures? Generally not a fan of either the debentures or the companies that issued them. Basically they guarantee dilution in the future. 2 companies, Cominar (CUF.UN-T) and Dundee (D.UN-T) have almost 30% or more of their equity market cap in them. | 2010-08-20 | ||
| Comment | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | As trusts in other sectors convert to corps and investors turn to REITs, is there danger of a REIT bubble? A lot of capital is flowing into yielding securities such as treasuries, bonds, bond funds, etc. Currently they are trading at 14.2X free cash flow, which is slightly rich so he has been exhibited in cash. | 2010-08-20 | ||
| BUY | Annaly Capital Management Inc. | NLY-N | 17.590 | Mortgage REIT. Essentially they buy agency residential mortgage backed US securities that are levered 6 times. Last quarter and next quarter will be a little rocky because curve is flattening and spread will tighten. Expect stock price to be flat for the next year or so. 15.5% yield | 2010-08-20 | ||
| TOP PICK | Pure Industrial Real Estatetrust Trust | AAR.UN-X | 3.590 | Occupancy has slipped from 100% to 99.8%. Didn't cut distributions during the downturn. Payout ratio of about 95%. 8.6% yield. Looking for over 20% return. | 2010-07-15 | ||
| TOP PICK | Brookfield Properties Corp. | BPO-N | 14.650 | Premier office portfolio, Toronto, Los Angeles, Manhattan and Ottawa. Great management, great balance sheet and low payout ratio. | 2010-07-15 | ||
| TOP PICK | First Capital Realty | FCR-T | 13.740 | Looking for 12% equity return. Worth about $15.25. Great tenant roster including Tim Horton's, banks, Loblaws, Sobeys, etc. with 96% occupancy. | 2010-07-15 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Calloway REIT | CWT.UN-T | 21.690 | (A Top Pick July 20/09. Up 76%.) Roughly 30% of cash comes from Wal-Mart. There was no movement in their occupancy. Cash flow quality has been maintained. A little expensive at these levels. | 2010-07-15 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Canadian Real Estate Investment | REF.UN-T | 29.250 | (A Top Pick July 20/09. Up 28%.) Probably the best REIT in Canada. Great management, low payout ratio and low debt. Buy under $28. | 2010-07-15 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Killam Properties Inc | KMP-T | 8.630 | (A Top Pick July 20/09. Up 57%.) Primarily in Atlantic Canada with some exposure to Ontario and Alberta. Apartment buildings and some mobile homes. Still cheap at these levels. | 2010-07-15 | ||
| BUY on WEAKNESS | Artis Real Estate Investment Trust | AX.UN-T | 11.380 | Good quality name. Recently made a very accretive acquisition in Minnesota. Try to buy at around $10.50. | 2010-07-15 | ||
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| BUY | Northern Property REIT | NPR.UN-T | 23.670 | Primarily apartments. 6.2% yield. | 2010-07-15 | ||
| BUY | Chartwell Seniors housing | CSH.UN-T | 7.700 | Seniors housing. Attractively priced. 6.9% yield. | 2010-07-15 | ||
| BUY on WEAKNESS | Annaly Capital Management Inc. | NLY-N | 17.620 | Mortgage REIT, which is very unique. Doesn't own commercial real estate but own pools of agency mortgages instead which are residential mortgages that are insured by Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae or Ginny Mae. 15.5% yield. | 2010-07-15 | ||
| Comment | Temple REIT | TR.UN-X | 2.310 | Limited service hotels with a big exposure to Fort McMurray and tied to oil sands activity. As oil prices go, so will occupancy in their hotels. Not a fan of lodging REITs, as he prefers longer-term cash flows that are more stable. 17% yield. If you are comfortable betting on the oil sands, you're probably okay. | 2010-07-15 | ||
| BUY on WEAKNESS | H&R Real Estate Inv Trust | HR.UN-T | 17.550 | Cut their distribution in half a couple of years ago and have released a schedule on the increases from $.72 to $1.06 over the next 2 years. You can buy at this level for single-digit returns. | 2010-07-15 | ||
| Comment | Homburg Canada REIT | HCR.UN-T | 10.210 | The real estate is not the greatest of quality. Payout ratio of about 100% and the leverage is pushing the high-end with what he would be comfortable with. 9.5% yield. Distribution has a very good tax-advantage. | 2010-07-15 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Lakeview Hotel REIT | LHR.UN-X | 0.330 | Not a fan of lodging REITs for the duration of the cash flow and the visibility. A lot of exposure to Western Canada. Expect it will be sleepy for some time. | 2010-07-15 | ||
| Comment | Extendicare REIT | EXE.UN-T | 8.620 | Long-term care and skilled nursing facilities in Canada and US. Doesn't like the model they are built on because he can't quantify the risks. Good management. 9.7% distribution is safe. | 2010-07-15 | ||
| Comment | InnVest Reit | INN.UN-T | 6.120 | Restructured so that the ownership of the hotels is in one trust and the Corp that is stapled to it, manages the hotels and earns the taxable income. Expect they will structure the Corp with enough debt so that there is no taxable income in it. Q3 and Q4 tend to be strong. | 2010-07-15 | ||
| BUY on WEAKNESS | Boardwalk REIT | BEI.UN-T | 41.570 | Great blue-chip name with a tremendous balance sheet. Multifamily apartments with big exposure to Edmonton and Calgary with some assets in Montreal. Try to buy at under $40. | 2010-07-15 | ||
| HOLD | RioCan Real Estate Investment | REI.UN-T | 19.610 | Great management and great assets and very low leverage but they are over distributing. Doesn't think they will grow into their distribution this year or next but should be able get there in 2012. Making acquisitions in the US. Distribution is probably safe. | 2010-07-15 | ||
| TOP PICK | Cominar Real Estate Inv Tr | CUF.UN-T | 18.920 | (A Top Pick June 3/09. Up 22.9% excluding distributions.) Have some excellent opportunities going forward. Just purchased Overland Realty, which exposes them to Atlantic Canada. Also have a very accretive development pipeline. | 2010-04-28 | ||
| TOP PICK | Primaris Retail REIT | PMZ.UN-T | 16.380 | Assembled a land parcel on Yonge Street in Toronto where they can potentially do some redeveloping and create significant value. Have done this successfully in the past. | 2010-04-28 | ||
| TOP PICK | H&R Real Estate Inv Trust | HR.UN-T | 16.900 | Developing Encana (ECA-T) head office in Calgary. They have the option to sell half. There are rumblings that they could increase their distributions later this year. | 2010-04-28 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Allied Properties REIT | AP.UN-T | 20.650 | (A Top Pick June 3/09. Up 45.5% excluding distributions.) Still a Buy. | 2010-04-28 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Killam Properties Inc | KMP-T | 8.400 | (A Top Pick June 3/09. Up 45% excluding yield.) Focuses on apartments and trailer parks. Great cash flow and very stable. Still cheap. | 2010-04-28 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Whiterock REIT | WRK.UN-T | 15.210 | Just acquired a number of properties on the Hwy 427 corridor in the Toronto area. Don't own the entire asset, which enables them to boost returns by charging asset/management property fees. He would like to see a couple of quarters of them operating. Too much over distributing and over leveraging for him. | 2010-04-28 | ||
| BUY | Artis Real Estate Investment Trust | AX.UN-T | 11.600 | Probably over distributing slightly at about 110%. They'll come on side late this year or early next year. Feels the distribution is safe. 9.3% distribution. | 2010-04-28 | ||
| BUY on WEAKNESS | Brookfield Office Properties Ltd | BOX.UN-T | 20.400 | Converting from a corporation into a REIT and will own all the Canadian assets and developments of Brookfield Properties (BPO-T). Expected to cash flow $1.07 for 2010-2011, which would be 19X free cash flow. This is pretty aggressive on a valuation standpoint. Try to buy under $19. | 2010-04-28 | ||
| BUY | RioCan Real Estate Investment | REI.UN-T | 18.810 | Good for a long investment horizon. | 2010-04-28 | ||
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| DON'T BUY | Temple REIT | TR.UN-X | 2.860 | Has never been a big fan of lodge/inn REITs because the duration of the cash flow is very short. Leverage is about 74% but should be 40% maximum. Recently cut distributions so they're probably sustainable now. | 2010-04-28 | ||
| BUY on WEAKNESS | Dundee REIT | D.UN-T | 25.300 | Reduced their exposure on Calgary offices and increased exposure in Toronto and Ottawa area. Good management. Try to buy at around $24. | 2010-04-28 | ||
| BUY on WEAKNESS | Calloway REIT | CWT.UN-T | 20.910 | Unenclosed power centres and anchored by Wal-Mart. This is a great core holding for a portfolio. Try to buy closer to $20. | 2010-04-28 | ||
| Comment | Northwest Healthcare Property REIT | NWH.UN-T | 11.050 | Medical office buildings. Generally suburban and lowrise that have either been retrofitted or built specifically to house doctors’ offices that require more power for lighting, etc. He had concerns on valuations and what was included in cash flow. Has potential to be an out performer over 5-10 years but he couldn't gauge the risk of the cash flow. | 2010-04-28 | ||
| BUY | Boardwalk REIT | BEI.UN-T | 41.040 | One of the best REITs in the country. Fantastic management, which owns 24%. Exceptionally low leverage that allows them to refinance their assets and pull out about $190 million in cash plus another $250 million. Low payout ratio. Has potential to buy back units, reduce leverage or do accretive acquisitions. | 2010-04-28 | ||
| Comment | Extendicare REIT | EXE.UN-T | 8.940 | Was being investigated by the department of health services in the US, for potential violations of the Social Securities act. In the long run, he thinks it will turn out to be overblown so this could be an opportunity. | 2010-04-28 | ||
| HOLD | Crombie Real Estate Investment Trust | CRR.UN-T | 11.660 | Suffers because it is in the retail space in Canada, which has strong competition that tends to hog most of the capital and the limelight. Good quality portfolio and the distribution is very sustainable. | 2010-04-28 | ||
| BUY | Brookfield Properties | BPO-T | 15.880 | Offers the best forward one-year return. Worth about $17-$18 right now. Yields about 4%-5%. | 2010-04-28 | ||
| DON'T BUY | InterRent REIT | IIP.UN-T | 1.470 | Prefers others instead. | 2010-04-28 | ||
| BUY on WEAKNESS | Chartwell Seniors housing | CSH.UN-T | 7.300 | Own primarily independent living and assisted living residences. Really not geared for aging demographics. There is a huge spread between the cash flow and financing costs. Distributions have been cut to a level that are sustainable. Try to buy at around $7. | 2010-04-28 | ||
| TOP PICK | Brookfield Properties | BPO-T | 15.250 | Class A office buildings in Toronto, Montreal, Calgary, Washington and Houston. | 2010-03-17 | ||
| TOP PICK | Artis Real Estate Investment Trust | AX.UN-T | 11.450 | Office, industrial and retail properties in Western Canada. Just reported with good results. Expect Q2 and Q3 will be good. | 2010-03-17 | ||
| TOP PICK | RioCan Real Estate Investment | REI.UN-T | 19.470 | Payout ratio soared in Q4 and they have to do a lot of acquisitions to back fill their distributions. | 2010-03-17 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Canadian Real Estate Investment | REF.UN-T | 28.000 | (A Top Pick March 17/09. Up 47.01%.) Still likes. | 2010-03-17 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Boardwalk REIT | BEI.UN-T | 40.930 | (A Top Pick March 17/09. Up77.51 %.) Still likes. | 2010-03-17 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | First Capital Realty | FCR-T | 22.100 | (A Top Pick March 17/09. Up 44.07%.) 5.5% convertible debentures maturing 2017 and priced for an 11% yield. | 2010-03-17 | ||
| BUY | Allied Properties REIT | AP.UN-T | 20.850 | Brick and beam office buildings in Toronto, Montreal and Quebec city. Distributions will not be increased in 2010. | 2010-03-17 | ||
| DON'T BUY | InterRent REIT | IIP.UN-T | 1.460 | Have gone through a lot of drama. New CEO is going to focus on turning the assets over and releasing them to tenants who pay their rent on time. Also looking to upgrade quality of the property. This will be a tough slog for him. | 2010-03-17 | ||
| BUY | Dundee REIT | D.UN-T | 25.470 | Offices/industrial properties with a tremendous amount of exposure to Calgary offices, which they are actively reducing. Purchasing in Toronto and Ottawa now. Payout ratio just under 100% with a yield of 8%+. Doesn't expect an increase. | 2010-03-17 | ||
| Comment | Holloway Lodging REIT | HLR.UN-T | 0.560 | Limited service hotels. Huge exposure to Grand Prairie Alberta, a gas town. If you expect gas to recover, this is a name that will benefit. Need more drilling activity and drilling crews staying at their hotels. Quite a bit of debt outstanding that needs refinancing. If a long-term investor and comfortable owning small caps, you'll make some money going forward. Better names available. | 2010-03-17 | ||
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| HOLD | Calloway REIT | CWT.UN-T | 21.630 | Unenclosed power centres, primarily anchored by Wal-Mart. If you are an income investor, this delivers a very steady stream. If interest rates start going up he would expect all REITs and risky assets to pull back. | 2010-03-17 | ||
| BUY on WEAKNESS | Northern Property REIT | NPR.UN-T | 22.900 | Has a small operating business of furnished hotel suites, which does not qualify for the REIT tax exemption so management is going to scale back this part in order to qualify. Great name. 1st half of 2010 is going to be weak because of turn over, giving them a chance to spend CapX to maintain their apartments so growth should continue in the 2nd half. | 2010-03-17 | ||
| Comment | H&R Real Estate Inv Trust | HR.UN-T | 16.530 | Qualifies as a REIT under current regulations so will not have to convert. Worth $17 now but if they sell 50% of the Bow tower in Calgary this could change. | 2010-03-17 | ||
| Comment | Lakeview Hotel REIT | LHR.UN-X | 0.400 | Limited service hotels with central and eastern Canadian exposure. Potentially will do well in the long-term. There are better places to be. Consider selling for a capital loss. | 2010-03-17 | ||
| WEAK BUY | Canadian Apartment Properties | CAR.UN-T | 14.590 | Never owned a lot of it. Management turnover recently. Disclosure has improved since. Problem is capital expenditures. It’s a large number, but on a per unit basis it is comparable with their piers. It’s approaching fair value. | 2010-01-19 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Scott's REIT | SRQ.UN-T | 8.190 | Quick service restaurants such as KFC. Moving into small strip malls. It’s a wait and see. | 2010-01-19 | ||
| Comment | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Will all income trusts other than REITs be taxed in 2011? Business trusts, oil and gas trusts, and the infrastructure trusts will all be taxed in 2011. Tax does not apply just to distributable cash, it applies to their taxable income. The actual tax will vary depending on the taxable income they generate. Tax will not apply to REITs as along as they meet the guidelines to be qualified as REITs. Seniors housing and lodging will not quality. | 2010-01-19 | ||
| TOP PICK | Primaris Retail REIT | PMZ.UN-T | 16.210 | Retail REIT. Discount to net asset value (6-7%). Great balance sheet, ton of cash, finally deployed some recently, adding about $1 to the stock. Still have good cash balance. His Top, Top Pick. | 2010-01-19 | ||
| TOP PICK | Chartwell Seniors housing | CSH.UN-T | 7.470 | This name had tones of turnover – asset sales, management, restructuring and 2 distribution cuts. Access to CMHC financing (4% or better). It’s a consolidation play. They did a good job of managing debt maturity profile. Trading below net asset value. | 2010-01-19 | ||
| TOP PICK | Brookfield Properties | BPO-T | 13.240 | Great Portfolio, good management team, sustained payout ratio and low leverage. Largely exposed to Manhattan and Calgary offices. They have weathered the storms. Cashed up for certain. Great Name, worth $14, he would buy at $12.50. Trading below net asset value. | 2010-01-19 | ||
| HOLD | Killam Properties Inc | KMP-T | 8.470 | Apartment building and trailer parks in primarily Atlantic Canada. He was impressed how Atlantic Canada weathered the downturn. Fairly valued at these values. It’s a wait and see as to whether they can grow cash flow. Talked about entering Ottawa and Toronto markets. | 2010-01-19 | ||
| HOLD | H&R Real Estate Inv Trust | HR.UN-T | 16.340 | Building is 30 stories out of the ground, to be completed in 2011/12. It’s fairly valued at these levels. Distribution increase expected in 2011. | 2010-01-19 | ||
| BUY | RioCan Real Estate Investment | REI.UN-T | 19.800 | Historically they have made up for their 125% payout ratio through the sale of assets. They went on record that they expect to cover their distribution by the end of the year. They are one of the best teams on the street. | 2010-01-19 | ||
| BUY | Dundee REIT | D.UN-T | 25.720 | Top holding in his fund. Shied away because of Calgary office exposure. Most recently purchased office towers in downtown Toronto, so he has stepped into this issue. Would like to buy in the $24 at the most. Company is marketing across the country and will be in the US next week or month. Don’t buy as a short-term position. | 2010-01-19 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Whiterock REIT | WRK.UN-T | 15.640 | Sold this position. Bearish about this name. He sold at half this price. He continues not to like it because of the excessive leverage. Juicy yield (over distributing). | 2010-01-19 | ||
| BUY | Cominar Real Estate Inv Tr | CUF.UN-T | 19.750 | Not in his top 10 on valuation. Today, bought Overland Reality Corp. in Nova Scotia with small portfolio of offices, industrial, retail and multi-family. In the past they bought asset from a Quebec REIT and did a tremendous job of leasing the assets and he would expect no less from this transaction. Distribution is sustainable, but they have a number of convertible debentures issues outstanding. As you grow free cash flow and unit price goes up, you trigger these converts and you issue a lot of equity. | 2010-01-19 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Artis Real Estate Investment Trust | AX.UN-T | 11.710 | (Top Pick Feb 12/09, Up 102%) Had tremendous exposure to Calgary so it sold off dramatically before he recommended it. They have done a good in that their offices are not so downtown, single tenant and now they are selling assets at gains and redeploying. Great job of managing balance sheet. | 2010-01-19 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Northern Property REIT | NPR.UN-T | 22.670 | (Top Pick Feb 12/09, Up %45) Multi-family in northern geographies. Loves it. Management is tremendous. Fully priced at these levels. | 2010-01-19 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Canadian Real Estate Investment | REF.UN-T | 28.360 | (Top Pick Feb 12/09, Up 34%) The only REIT that increased their distribution every year despite the financial crisis. The best REIT in the country. | 2010-01-19 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Lakeview Hotel REIT | LHR.UN-X | 0.450 | Hotel REIT. Diversified. Limited service hotels. If recovery takes hold and there is an up tick in tourism and wages and GDP, the lodging space should to well. | 2010-01-19 | ||
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| BUY | Simon Property Group Inc. | SPG-N | 74.880 | Favorite US REIT. Great balance sheet, sustainable payout ratio, and great mall assets. Done tremendous job of retaining tenancy. Not a lot of exposure to co-tenancy. Family run. | 2010-01-19 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Retrocom Mid-Market REIT | RMM.UN-T | 3.700 | CEO of Smart Centers (24% stake in Calloway REIT) sold assets to RMM and took back a stake. Thought was he would transform RMM. But it does not have same quality of assets, diversity or mass as Calloway. He is skeptical. He bought the convert. | 2010-01-19 | ||
| BUY | Brookfield Real Estate Services Fund | BRE.UN-T | 12.550 | (Market Call Minute) Buy in $10-$11 range. Good name. | 2010-01-19 | ||
| BUY | Crombie Real Estate Investment Trust | CRR.UN-T | 11.320 | (Market Call Minute) Buy in $10 range. | 2010-01-19 | ||
| HOLD | InnVest Reit | INN.UN-T | 5.800 | (Market Call Minute) Wished he had held on longer. | 2010-01-19 | ||
| WAIT | Duke Reality Corporation | DRE-N | 12.960 | US REIT. US REITs are pricing in a pretty strong recovery. If recovery was 3% GDP growth, REITs would still be trading at about 10% premium. Look for it to pull back 5-10% before buying. They’ve sold assets and cut distribution recently. They’ve cut back on merchant development. When the dust settles, there will be an opportunity to buy 5-10% lower. Buy in the 8’s | 2010-01-19 | ||
| TOP PICK | Canadian Real Estate Investment | REF.UN-T | 23.950 | (A Top Pick Aug 13/08. Down 12.82%.) Sustainable leverage levels and payout ratios. Did equity issue which recharged the balance sheet. Very conservative management team. Would buy under $24 and accumulate in times of weakness. | 2009-07-20 | ||
| TOP PICK | Calloway REIT | CWT.UN-T | 13.300 | (A Top Pick Aug 13/08. Down 25.67%.) Potentially has a $1 billion development pipeline with concerns on whether it is accretive or not. Payout ratio of 100% is questionable. 27% of tenants are Wal-Mart. Average age of property is about 7 years. | 2009-07-20 | ||
| TOP PICK | Killam Properties Inc | KMP-T | 6.070 | Apartments, primarily in Atlantic Canada where he economies have held in relatively well. Recently did an equity raise. Almost full occupancy. Access to CMHC financing. | 2009-07-20 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Artis Real Estate Investment Trust | AX.UN-T | 7.540 | (A Top Pick Aug 13/08. Down 43.74%.) Have done a tremendous job of building a high-quality portfolio and continue to recycle assets. Still a Buy. | 2009-07-20 | ||
| BUY | First Capital Realty | FCR-T | 16.900 | Owns about 17% of a US REIT Equity One plus interests in a number of operating companies. Entities under this company that own these are going to be spun off to existing shareholders. Regarding this company, they are cleaning up the balance sheet to give a clean play on Canadian shopping centres. | 2009-07-20 | ||
| Comment | Brookfield Properties | BPO-T | 9.230 | Class A office towers in larger cities. Overhangs are 1) Merrill Lynch, largest tenant in downtown Manhattan will probably leave in 2013 and 2) have a large debt maturing in 2011 in their US office fund that will need financing. Payout ratio of about 67%. Cheap right now but you will have to deal with a lot of headline news and write out a wave of volatility. | 2009-07-20 | ||
| SELL | Royal Host Real Estate I.T. | RYL.UN-T | 2.910 | Limited service hotels with big exposure to Western Canada. Will be affected by tourism. Expect it will be a 2 to 4 year turnaround for limited service hotels. Feels distribution is in serious jeopardy. | 2009-07-20 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Northstar Realty Finance Corporation | NRF-N | 2.940 | Really a real estate hedge fund. Be very careful with this type of name. Business is in 3 different areas. 1) Own triple net lease properties 2) originate mortgage debt and 3) buy mortgage securities. | 2009-07-20 | ||
| HOLD | Firm Cap Mortgage Investment Trust | FC.UN-T | 9.950 | As close to a mortgage REIT as you get in Canada. Essentially underwrite a portfolio of construction financing, mezzanine loans and commercial real estate. Average loan term is probably about 1 year. Payout ratio is sustainable. Limited competition. 9% yield but very little growth. | 2009-07-20 | ||
| STRONG BUY | H&R Real Estate Inv Trust | HR.UN-T | 11.620 | Payout is about 50%. Distribution is very safe. Very cheap. 6.3% yield. | 2009-07-20 | ||
| Comment | Chartwell Seniors housing | CSH.UN-T | 5.570 | Middle of the road to slightly above in terms of seniors housing. Residents tend to live here on investment portfolios and selling their homes. Homes are declining in value and investment portfolios are still off anywhere from 30% to 50%. He has a “wait-and-see” attitude on this one. | 2009-07-20 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Whiterock REIT | WRK.UN-T | 16.300 | You have to dig through financial statements and reporting to understand what is really going on. If you look at cash in/cash out they are over distributing. However, their statement of changes and financial position and cash flow statement, there is about $500,000 shortfall. Yield of about 20%. | 2009-07-20 | ||
| Comment | Public Storage Canadian Properties | PUB-T | 12.750 | Only publicly traded self-storage company in Canada. Very small and illiquid so it is not possible for him to own it but widely owned by a lot of Toronto real estate analysts personally. Sustainable payout ratio. Good space. Assets are old and they're going to need a lot of CapX to modernize them. | 2009-07-20 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Holloway Lodging REIT | HLR.UN-T | 0.760 | Outlook for lodging REITs and limited service hotels is very bleak for the next 3 to 4 years. | 2009-07-20 | ||
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| DON'T BUY | Genworth MI Canada Inc. | MIC-T | 19.000 | Insure high ratio residential mortgages in Canada. Pretty much a duopoly between them and CMHC. Have done very well over the years. Doesn't like management compensation structure. Would be interested at around $16-$17. | 2009-07-20 |