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| Craig MacAdam of Aurion Capital |
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| PAST TOP PICK | Suncor Energy Inc | SU-T | 35.590 | (A Top Pick May 14/09. Up 3%.) Now hearing more details on the integration with Petrocan. Should continue to strengthen. | 2009-11-02 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Shoppers Drug Mart Corp | SC-T | 43.700 | (A Top Pick May 14/09. Down 1.7%.) Historically the pharmaceutical side is very profitable but the Ontario regulatory review is making investors nervous. | 2009-11-02 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Equinox MineralsLtd. | EQN-T | 3.690 | (A Top Pick May 14/09. Up 53.8%.) Of all the base metals copper still looks the most attractive. Have come a long way on the ramp up of the new Zambia mine. Still likes. | 2009-11-02 | ||
| TOP PICK | Tim Hortons | THI-T | 30.130 | Strong management and strong franchise network. Just posted 2 profitable quarters in the US. Things are still doing very well in Canada. Long-term PE multiple is about 20X. | 2009-11-02 | ||
| TOP PICK | Anvil Mining Ltd. | AVM-T | 3.010 | Pure copper play in the Democratic Republic of Congo so extremely risky because of politics. They were in a financially distressed position but now have a partner and are back on track. | 2009-11-02 | ||
| TOP PICK | Daylight Resources Trust | DAY-T | 8.590 | Acquisition of Highpine gave them a 30% weighting in oil. Will be able to take the cash flow from this and reinvest it in natural gas. Also has a lot of conventional acreage but new technology will make these plays a lot more profitable. 11.2% yield should be safe for the next 12 months. When they convert to a corp, dividend will probably go down but will be more than made up for in growth. | 2009-11-02 | ||
| WAIT | Gerdau Ameristeel Corp | GNA-T (Dead) | 7.450 | One of the few plays left to play pure steel stocks in North America. Global player. Would be cautious on steel companies today because of the significant ramp up of production in China while prices have been pretty well flat. Demand could be down because of economies. Earnings coming out on Nov 5. | 2009-11-02 | ||
| HOLD | Manitoba Telecom Services | MBT-T | 31.500 | Not a national player. Consolidation will continue in this market and will eventually be a target so you are better to wait for this and get the 8% yield. | 2009-11-02 | ||
| BUY | Cameco Corporation | CCO-T | 29.840 | Very bullish on uranium and this is one of the market leaders. Fully integrated in the nuclear cycle from mining to enrichment as well as some exposure to electrical generation. You have to be prepared for operational disappointments. | 2009-11-02 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Manulife Financial | MFC-T | 20.190 | $26 stock price is not too far-fetched if we get the US consumer coming back and there is economic growth in the developed world and there is continued recovery. Extremely exposed to what happens in the equity markets. | 2009-11-02 | ||
| HOLD | Telus Corp | T-T | 33.450 | 5.7% dividend is safe. Rogers (RCI.B-T) has the most exposure to wireless and cable and Bell (BCE-T) has the least exposure so this company falls in between. If you're willing to take risks, Rogers would be your choice but for a more defensive play, Bell would be it. | 2009-11-02 | ||
| BUY | McDonalds | MCD-N | 59.160 | Leader in their space and able to take advantage of their competitors. Great core position. Good exposure to emerging markets. Foreign currency profits gain through a weaker US$. 3.7% yield. | 2009-11-02 | ||
| BUY | Rogers Communcations (B) | RCI.B-T | 32.220 | iPhone will be available to Bell (BCE-T) and Telus (R-T) by the end of the month, which is a significant competitive threat to them. A Buy if you are more aggressive on the telecom space. | 2009-11-02 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Pacific Rubiales Energy Corp. | PRE-T | 13.310 | Exploration/production oil company in Columbia. Has had a really good run. He recently sold his holdings. Doesn't see them being acquired in the near term. Could see it reaching $17-$18 in 3 years if they keep operating as is so you have to wait to get there. | 2009-11-02 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Goldcorp Inc | G-T | 40.140 | Between Eldorado (ELD-T), Goldcorp (G-T) and Yamana (YRI-T), Goldcorp would be his favourite however, seasonally, he is a little bit cautious on gold. US$ has been extremely weak and very beneficial to gold prices but is becoming a a bit of a crowded trade so commodities are probably poised for a pullback. | 2009-11-02 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Eldorado Gold | ELD-T | 12.050 | Between Eldorado (ELD-T), Goldcorp (G-T) and Yamana (YRI-T), Goldcorp would be his favourite however, seasonally, he is a little bit cautious on gold. US$ has been extremely weak and very beneficial to gold prices but is becoming a a bit of a crowded trade so commodities are probably poised for a pullback. | 2009-11-02 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Yamana Gold Inc. | YRI-T | 11.650 | Between Eldorado (ELD-T), Goldcorp (G-T) and Yamana (YRI-T), Goldcorp would be his favourite however, seasonally, he is a little bit cautious on gold. US$ has been extremely weak and very beneficial to gold prices but is becoming a a bit of a crowded trade so commodities are probably poised for a pullback. | 2009-11-02 | ||
| BUY | Royal Bank | RY-T | 54.880 | Canadian banks have come through the crisis and this one is the leader. Dividend is secure and will start to grow again once they build up their capital. This would be his favourite play. 3.6% yield. | 2009-11-02 | ||
| BUY | Bank of Nova Scotia | BNS-T | 46.220 | Probably his 3rd favourite bank. Has the advantage of being in emerging markets and likes the way they manage these businesses. Great core holding. 4.2% yield. | 2009-11-02 | ||
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| BUY | Toronto Dominion | TD-T | 62.750 | This would be his 2nd favourite bank. Good core holding. 3.9% dividend. | 2009-11-02 | ||
| Comment | Encana Corp | ECA-T | 60.170 | Currently in the process of splitting the company in 2. By the end of this month there will be Encana, which will be natural gas as well as Sunovas, their oil play. This will be an advantage to present owners. Target price would be $70-$75 of which 47% will be from Sunovas, the oil sands business. | 2009-11-02 | ||
| SPECULATIVE BUY | Breakwater Resources | BWR-T | 0.380 | His hierarchy in base metals is copper first, followed by zinc. This is probably the purest, highest leverage (operating and financial) risk is way for a pure play on zinc. 2.3 X more volatile than the TSX composites index. | 2009-11-02 | ||
| BUY | Crescent Point Energy Corp | CPG-T | 36.920 | Great company. Has become the leader in proving up the Bakken, which is a great play in Manitoba and is extremely profitable. Management has done a great job. Very expensive and if they have any hiccups it could stop growing which could be very dangerous. | 2009-11-02 | ||
| HOLD | Stantec Inc | STN-T | 26.230 | Likes infrastructure. Well managed. Now a lot of infrastructure companies and he expects a lot of M & A activity in the sector. 3rd on his favourites list as it has some exposure to the US residential market. Long track record of adding value. Good Buy and Hold but he prefers others. | 2009-11-02 | ||
| BUY | Aecon Group Inc | ARE-T | 11.350 | This is his favourite infrastructure play. Well capitalized and are continuing to win a lot of contracts. With their recent acquisition they are now a national player. | 2009-11-02 | ||
| HOLD | SNC-Lavalin Group Inc. | SNC-T | 43.160 | 2nd favourite in infrastructure. Big global player and well diversified. | 2009-11-02 | ||
| BUY on WEAKNESS | UTS Energy | UTS-T | 2.100 | Great basket of assets but unfortunately they don't control their own fate. Just announced they had sold their leases, which was a great transaction. Probably fully valued. Would consider at $1.75-$1.80. | 2009-11-02 | ||
| HOLD | CitiGroup | C-N | 3.990 | (Market Call Minute.) One of the US companies that has too much TARP exposure and can't attract good management because of executive pay constraints. | 2009-11-02 | ||
| HOLD | Husky Energy | HSE-T | 27.740 | (Market Call Minute.) Great basket of assets that management just doesn't seem to optimize it well. | 2009-11-02 | ||
| BUY | Hudbay Minerals Inc. | HBM-T | 13.620 | (Market Call Minute.) Recently announced a great gold resource that has given a new life. | 2009-11-02 | ||
| BUY | Bombardier Inc (B) | BBD.B-T | 4.350 | (Market Call Minute.) Business jet market is improving. Commercial aerospace market is eventually going to get better. Transportation is going gangbusters. | 2009-11-02 | ||
| BUY | Air Canada (B) | AC.B-T | 1.050 | (Market Call Minute.) Just recapitalized and the risk of bankruptcy is off the table. Airline industry is extremely risky but in Canada there are only 2 players. | 2009-11-02 | ||
| HOLD | Teck Resources Ltd. (B) | TCK.B-T | 14.540 | Good company. Well diversified geographically and in metals. Their most important commodity now is coal. Rallied because it came back from the brink of a financial crisis. $10 billion of debt because of the Fording acquisition. Until balance sheet is stabilized a little further, he would stay away from this. | 2009-05-14 | ||
| BUY | Harvest Energy Trust | HTE.UN-T | 7.350 | Just reported a very strong quarter. Achieve higher margins than expected on its Come by Chance refinery. Was also successful in raising money on an equity issue. Still high levered but with oil prices doing what they are doing and what they showed on the last quarter, he thinks it will get through. | 2009-05-14 | ||
| Comment | Bell Aliant | BA.UN-T | 24.400 | Believes that eventually BCE (BCE-T) will take it in under the new leadership. Very healthy distribution without much risk. | 2009-05-14 | ||
| BUY | BCE Inc. | BCE-T | 24.150 | Just finished a share buyback. Balance sheet is quite strong. Very predictable stream of revenue. New management is very strong. Very attractive below $25. | 2009-05-14 | ||
| Comment | Opti Canada Inc. | OPC-T | 3.110 | New CEO is a very astute dealmaker. Still has a lot of challenges for its balance sheet. Has that repayments due and he is not sure how they're going to do it. Ramp up is not going all that well. If they can get over the financial hurdle, there is a long resource that is worth significantly more than what it is trading at. A lot of risk. | 2009-05-14 | ||
| BUY | Canadian Oil Sands Trust | COS.UN-T | 25.100 | Very bullish on energy and oil in particular. This one is a mature company with no start-up risks. | 2009-05-14 | ||
| SELL | CitiGroup | C-N | 3.550 | There is no risk of this going bankrupt. However, its earning power, much like the other US banks, is probably going to be challenged for quite some time. These companies are going to be forced to go through a de-leveraging process, therefore lower ROE’s, lower growth rates and probably lower earnings multiples. | 2009-05-14 | ||
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| TOP PICK | Suncor Energy Inc | SU-T | 34.640 | Very bullish on oil. Thinks the merger with PetroCan (PCA-T) is a brilliant transaction. The assets will have a lot of upside. There will be significant operating synergies as well as capital expenditure synergies. | 2009-05-14 | ||
| TOP PICK | Shoppers Drug Mart Corp | SC-T | 44.420 | Market leader. Very strong management team. Recurring revenue model is very impressive. Front of the store is very well managed and focuses on health, beauty and convenience items. Have a strong track record of generating same-store sales growth. Higher loyalty in their customer base. | 2009-05-14 | ||
| TOP PICK | Equinox MineralsLtd. | EQN-T | 2.340 | Starting up a copper project in Zambia. Central Africa is a very challenging environment to work in. Management team has come through an extremely challenging environment and has been successful. | 2009-05-14 |
