STOCKCHASE

BHP Billiton (BHP-N) would like to acquire them but the market is indicating the price should be closer to $160-$165. If you own, you could sell half your holdings at the current price and hope for a higher takeover on the balance.

2010-09-02

N/A

158.170

POT hit a 52-week high today. The market is expecting a higher bid. BP put in 130. Something will materialize. Potentially a sovereign wealth fund is the most likely acquirer. Thinks you should hang on. BHP doesn’t know what it is facing in the form of mining taxes in Australia. No position in BPH.

2010-08-23

BUY on WEAKNESS

113.090

Don Lato

Is Agrium (AGU-T) or Potash (POT-T) a buy right now? Both have had a bit of a run. Expects today's weakness will continue tomorrow and he would be cautious. Would use this one as a trading situation because of its volatility. Favours Agrium because of its diversity

2010-08-11

BUY on WEAKNESS

115.440

Barry Schwarrtz

There is a correlation between prices of agricultural prices and potash, but there is quite a time lag. You want to focus on changing Chinese diets. Importer of corn and soybean is skyrocketing. Earnings next year will be really good and in 2012.

2010-08-10

PAST TOP PICK

116.490

(A Top Pick May 7/09. Up 7%.) As emerging markets continue to improve living standards, they will consume more agriculture products. Has had a good run so wouldn't chase it at the moment. $140-$160 long-term.

2010-08-09

BUY

115.970

Brooke Thackray

Excellent results. Fertilizer stocks tend to do well from August until the end o the year. If you look back, they haven’t done well because farmers were cutting back only to deplete soil and now they have to buy it. Great formation taking place on the chart. A breakout is going to take place.

2010-08-05

TOP PICK

113.130

Ian Ainsworth

Can see it getting to $130-$135 in the near term. Has a dominant market position with the largest share of ground field capacity. Emerging markets need more and more potash to increase crop yields.

2010-08-04

BUY

100.700

Colin Stewart

Long-term outlook is very good for the agricultural space. There is need for more food on a global basis with less arable land.

2010-07-27

BUY

100.790

Major producer of potash. Potash pricing has dropped quite a bit. Thinks this is now bottomed and countries are starting to buy more now of all pricing is still depressed. At this price, it is a good long-term buy.

2010-07-26

BUY

102.540

Barry Schwarrtz

Great recovery in the last week or so. Prices of potash seemed to have stabilized. China is now a net importer of corn. You are buying it on next year’s earnings.

2010-07-20

BUY

89.310

Thinks it’s a cheap stock. 35% of its all time high. He thinks it is worth more than this. It is over sold. He is buying more.

2010-07-06

Comment

90.850

Greg A. Taylor, CFA, BBA

Potash and some of the agriculture commodities have come off on the theme of the China slowdown. Expected to be under pressure for the next few years. An interesting way to play this is to watch corn prices, which has been under pressure in the last few months.

2010-07-05

WAIT

90.910

Don Vialoux

Seasonality of agriculture stocks is from end of June to end of the year. Probably a little bit later this year. If grain prices are bottoming demand will be greater for fertilizers. Earnings in the 2nd quarter and onwards are going to be very strong for this company. Wait for the stock to show signs of bottoming.

2010-07-02

DON'T BUY

95.020

Michael Smedley

Need to take a long-term approach as it takes a long time for this company to crank up. Would like to see it drop a lot further.

2010-06-28

Comment

95.020

Had tried to put a $10 price increase on the commodity but it didn't take. If you have a time horizon of over 18 months you can Hold or average down.

2010-06-28

PAST TOP PICK

99.970

Hap (Robert) Sneddon FCSI

(Top Pick May 7/09, Down 8%) All the other commodities have had pretty good rallies. Thinks recovery is on the way. A year from now the demand will drive up the price of potash. By it at these levels.

2010-06-22

TOP PICK

103.500

Stan Wong

World's largest potash producer. After expansion they will have 22% of global capacity so will control both demand and supply. Expects a volume increase in 2010 with a pricing increase in 2011.

2010-06-17

WAIT

100.560

We have some support at $90 and then again at $100.

2010-06-04

BUY

101.980

John Zechner

Some risk in the short term. Thinks this stock will act well. Demand has to pick up again. He expects some more consolidation in this industry.

2010-06-01

WEAK BUY

102.460

Barry Schwarrtz

Has gone nowhere this year. He is worried about the outlook. There is still an over-supply in potash. It is more of a long-term story. You won’t see a bounce this year.

2010-05-25

PAST TOP PICK

103.690

(A Top Pick May 7/09. Down 6%.) Potash prices have stabilized around $350. Longer term this price is not sustainable. You need $550-$700 a ton. This company is #1 potash producer globally and will benefit tremendously when the price goes up.

2010-05-21

BUY

103.610

Likes stocks that have products that are going to be used in developing nations. Great story.

2010-05-20

Comment

104.620

6 months is a little iffy for agriculture stocks but has more confidence in 18 months. Around $100 you are starting to get valuations that are pretty attractive.

2010-05-17

BUY

106.200

Thinks this sector is going to do better in the next little while. (See Top Picks.)

2010-05-14

STRONG BUY

106.270

(Market Called Minute.) Thinks it has been oversold. A next year’s story on the price of fertilizers.

2010-05-10

Comment

104.540

David Cockfield

Prefers Agrium (AGU-T), which is more diversified. This is a seasonally weak period. Stocks have been run down globally. The product will be in demand next year and the year after.

2010-05-07

DON'T BUY

106.850

It’s a favorite of his to write options against. Their earnings were ok but they did not guide up significantly. The grain harvest was strong so Potash falls.

2010-05-04

BUY

110.010

Steven Conville

Should hit $130 in 12 months. Farming is coming back along with farming prices. When that happens, fertilizers will be in demand. (See Top Picks.)

2010-05-03

WAIT

112.230

Don Vialoux

Seasonality is quite strong around the end of the year. Currently it is in a trading range so you are not seeing much of anything. It has negative relative strength. Trading below its 200 and 50 day moving averages. Wait until about July, but the real sweet spot is from October until December.

2010-04-30

BUY

109.910

A good entry point. Pricing is slowly starting to recover. It’s an attractive entry point.

2010-04-26

BUY

109.910

Andrew Cook

(Market Call Minute) Likes it. Putting a bottom right about here.

2010-04-26

PAST TOP PICK

108.420

(A Top Pick May 7/09. Down 1.2%.) Potash is a necessary nutrient for agriculture. This will come back. Still a Buy.

2010-04-19

BUY

110.640

(Market Call Minute.) Good news is that inventories in North America are tightening up and are very much lower than they were last year. Bad news is snow in northern China and drought in southwest, which has impacted consumption. A lot of US farmers are facing financial difficulties.

2010-04-15

BUY

114.460

Down about 10% in the last 10 days because of profit taking. Fertilizer companies tend to not do so well in spring planting period. Fundamentally, things are starting to turn around for them. Think potash prices have stabilized and we now need to see a recovery of volumes.

2010-04-12

TOP PICK

114.900

Has come off 15% from the start of the year. Good time for people who don't own an agriculture stock. Has been an under investment by farmers as commodity prices fell. Demand is rising again and he is expecting a very strong 2011.

2010-04-08

BUY

116.000

Prakash Hariharan

Prefers it to MOS-N and CPG-T.

2010-03-01

BUY

116.000

Prakash Hariharan

(Market Call Minute)

2010-03-01

BUY on WEAKNESS

117.070

Potash is a commodity that is not exhibiting the same strength as others. Conventional thinking is that the agriculture market will remain very tight and potash prices next year and the year after will be going up. Likes to write options on this one because of the volatility.

2010-02-11

Comment

112.380

Don Lato

Will be driven by the commodity price. Prefers Agrium (AGU-T) because of their diversity.

2010-02-10

BUY

109.340

Inexpensive. There is a world grain shortage and because grain prices fell so sharply during the recession, grain was not planted very much at all and fertilizer prices fell. There is bound to be a rebound.

2010-02-08

Comment

111.050

Andrew McCreath

(Market Call Minute.) Sell for the short-term and Buy for the longer term.

2010-02-05

STRONG BUY

110.070

John Zechner

(Market Call Minute.) We are early on in the cycle. Prices are heading higher.

2010-02-01

PAST TOP PICK

105.920

(A Top Pick Jan 26/09. Up 16.56%.)

2010-01-29

TOP PICK

105.920

Likes this one over the medium-long term because potash is one of the necessary ingredients for agriculture. Short-term earnings are going to be weak because we're still coming through the bottom. You buy this one for over the next 12-18 months.

2010-01-29

DON'T BUY

111.260

Colin Stewart

Generally fertilizer space is a good area longer-term with developing countries needing more nutrients for their soils. In the past, this stock has had a magnificent performance and will probably do well over time but just lowered their earnings guidance for 2010.

2010-01-28

Comment

119.300

Prefers Agrium (AGU-T) because market cap is significantly smaller making it more vulnerable to a takeout play. Also cheaper on a PE basis.

2010-01-18

Comment

112.000

Philip Doyle

Has just had a sell off which was based on rumors of potash prices. Because of this he could see it bouncing.

2009-12-18

DON'T BUY

125.520

Gone through his target price so he is now considering what to do with his holdings. Still a lot of potash inventory overhanging North American market. CEO is talking about potash pricing around $400 and he sees a bit of risk on the earnings for 2010. Things should get better in 2010-2011. Would prefer to buy in the $100 range.

2009-12-16

PARTIAL BUY

128.710

Fundamentally likes agri-food but this has had quite a nice run. There is a takeover frenzy in the sector, which is good news. Because we are in a sideways consolidating market, you don't have to chase anything. If you want, you could buy a bit and then average down if the stock drops.

2009-12-10

BUY

116.030

Earnings have been poor when buyers went on strike and refused to buy. With a 2-3 year time horizon this would be a good entry point. Likes agriculture as a theme. Nutrients are going to be required by farmers and emerging nations.

2009-11-26

DON'T BUY

100.670

Stan Wong

His technicals indicate this is not a stock to own. Estimates on their quarterly and annual earnings are coming down.

2009-11-04

PARTIAL BUY

103.610

Jaime Carrasco

A natural fertilizer. Long-term investment so continue to add.

2009-10-29

TOP PICK

103.610

(A Top Pick Nov 26/08. Up 37%.) Stock is trading sideways but the options have some of the highest volatility of any stock. E.g. bought the stock and wrote a Call option for 1 month at the stock price that he bought it at and was paid 6.5%. If the stock stays where it is he makes 6.5%, if it goes up he stays at 6.5% and if the stock goes down 6.5% he breaks even.

2009-10-29

BUY

100.960

Did relatively well in the recent pullback. Holding up well because of a rumour that BHP Billiton (BHP-N) would like to buy them. Still a couple of quarters away from decent earnings.

2009-10-28

BUY

105.950

Gavin Graham

BHP may buy this, maybe. You can’t not buy fertilizer for more than one year and farmers didn’t for a year. People are going to eat.

2009-10-23

BUY

107.300

Martin Hubbes, CFA

He’s gone for the thing that it is harder to produce more of.

2009-10-21

DON'T BUY

106.840

David Burrows

Has been under performing the market. Talk of them being bought out and if they are, possibly there would be good value. Don’t make a stock purchase on the assumption that it is being taken over. Agriculture has been the weakest sector.

2009-10-19

BUY

97.260

There has been poor demand for fertilizer over this past year. Things have to improve in the next 6 to 12 months, as farmers cannot continue to delay putting on fertilizer.

2009-10-15

BUY

94.440

By cutting back on the supply side they will tighten the market up and they can do it because they have 20% market share. There will be demand going forward. Bumper crops in the US and as farmers get their cash stream they will have to put some fertilizer back in.

2009-10-09

DON'T BUY

95.740

Jeff Parent

Technically looks really weak. Had a positive trend up until May/June but has now entered into a downward trend. Expecting it to go down to the mid-$80's. It would have to go up to about $100 before you Buy. Had a lower low, which is not a good sign.

2009-10-07

BUY

91.610

Robert Lauzon

In the penalty box because of high expectations management set a few years ago. Resources have rallied this year but this one is down or flat. Have been indications the Chinese will be signing contracts at the same price or lower than India signed. Long-term this is a stock you would want to own and this is an opportune time to buy it if you have a 2 or 3-year horizon.

2009-10-05

Comment

92.850

Have been exercising production discipline to keep the price high. A short-term negative is that the Chinese negotiation has not been settled for 2009. Thinks the stock will come back.

2009-10-02

DON'T BUY

93.880

Would hold off on this as the charts are beginning to look a little suspect and it could possibly drop to $85. Waiting for the Chinese shoe to drop. Until there is a clearer picture, he would stay away.

2009-10-01

SELL

100.390

The bloom is off the rose on this one. He has a lot of difficulty with the earnings growth. The best he can come up with is $105Cdn. Prospects for 2010 and 2011 will get better but currently analysts are still too excited about the name. Earnings estimates have to come down considerably. If you own consider tax loss selling.

2009-09-16

BUY on WEAKNESS

96.850

Norman Levine

Likes the pure play on the potash commodity. Thinks that potash pricing is highly suspect at this time. Looking for a drop in the stock price for an opportunity to buy.

2009-09-11

BUY

99.100

John Zechner

Potash may drop a little in the short term. Valuation is attractive. He would go with Agrium.

2009-09-08

Comment

97.180

Andrew Guy, CFA

Fertilizers. Good returns on capital and have strong balance sheets but are not dividend friendly. A seasonal play. Possibly November/December would be a better time to play.

2009-09-04

PARTIAL BUY

97.180

Jaime Carrasco

Likes the agricultural sector. Expecting a lot of pent-up demand for potash. He would be slowly adding to this.

2009-09-04

Comment

98.300

Go Long the stock and sell Put Options against it or just sell a Put? Is their strategy is great.

2009-09-03

Comment

97.180

Willem Hanskamp

Agrium (AGU-T) or Potash (POT-T)? Potash is strictly potash and Agrium has potash as well as chemical fertilizers and seems to be doing a little better. Potash’s cash flows are a little bit under pressure. Both stocks on the long run have a great upside potential.

2009-08-31

DON'T BUY

99.190

Bill Carrigan

Doesn't like the potash stocks.

2009-08-28

WAIT

100.500

The 2 great quarters in the agricultural sector is spring and fall. We are already into the fall and winter is a slow period. Trading range on this stock is probably $95-$125 before it gets launched again.

2009-08-27

BUY

102.550

Likes for the long term because she is positive on fertilizers. Expecting an increase in demand for fertilizers as emerging countries industrialize. Potash, phosphates and nitrogen have been on a decline because farmers have stopped buying. Brazil has settled on their potash pricing for the next year so volumes are starting to pick up.

2009-08-26

BUY on WEAKNESS

103.750

Norman Levine

On his radar but in the $80's. Prefers Syngenta (SYT-N), which specializes in herbicides, pesticides and seeds.

2009-08-24

BUY

104.480

Ara Nalbandian

Has come down to levels that are now attractive. Doesn't think the pricing pressures are sustainable.

2009-08-19

BUY

103.240

Andrew McCreath

(Market Call Minute) long term they have a monopoly in a space that is going to do very well.

2009-08-18

VAGUE

100.710

Steven Conville

This has not done as well as Agrium over the last 3 months. Definitely a market leader. Until the end of the year this is a tough question. His bet is that January it will be a little higher than it is today. Exercise caution. This is not a stock that is not subject to a lot of volatility. But he likes it in this space.

2009-08-17

Comment

103.450

Mike S. Newton, CIM FCSI

The whole agricultural trade is a macro trade that is for real. The problem is that this is a little pricey given where potash commodity is trading at right now. Waiting for a move in the basic commodity and will own them in the future.

2009-08-11

Comment

104.970

With the Indian contract having been signed and all the bad news behind it, he thinks pricing and planting (volume) are higher in 2010, but not before then. Will probably drift sideways for a while. Prefers Agrium (AGU-T).

2009-08-10

BUY

105.200

David Cockfield

Thinks the bad news is already out on this stock. This is the kind of stock that long-term investors like to park their money in. Everybody he talks to are convinced that sales will improve because of food shortages on the horizon.

2009-08-07

PARTIAL BUY

100.360

Lyle Stein

Great long-term story. If you don't have a position, he wouldn't be too cute about where you get in. Consider how long you want to stay in what would be a reasonable target price and then build a position. You could then buy on down days.

2009-07-31

DON'T BUY

103.130

Stan Wong

Demand for potash is waning but long-term is not going to disappear forever. Expects this will be an issue for the next quarter or 2. There are many other names in the agricultural space such as Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO-N).

2009-07-30

BUY

97.500

Greg A. Taylor, CFA, BBA

Short-term there will be anything positive. Have been some pricing cuts in the last few weeks with India and China. 2010 earnings look like they should snap back as global demand starts to increase.

2009-07-22

BUY

100.570

Likes fertilizer. Potash demand has dropped off significantly. Russian producer contracted with India at $460. She thinks pricing will settle in this range, which is a relatively good price. Expects volumes will pick up.

2009-07-21

BUY

101.360

Michael Decter

Around $100 it's a good buy. If the last contract price of $460 becomes standard there may not be a huge movement for a while. If you have sales higher than this and an increase in demand, this could have a nice 20%-30% run. Very volatile. If it runs up quickly, consider taking some money off the table.

2009-07-20

WAIT

102.330

Stock price went up on rumours that Mosaic (MOS-N) could be taken over by Vale out of Brazil. Has been some movement on potash negotiations with some companies breaking ranks and filing for lower prices. This will affect future prices so their earning power will be quite depressed.

2009-07-16

BUY

97.980

Ken McCord

He bought at $95 and wrote a $95 Call Option netting $5. (Does this in New York because Options are more liquid.) (Recent contract prices on potash came in lower than last year's prices, which has been priced into the stock.)

2009-07-15

BUY

99.120

Likes agriculture and both Potash (POT-T) and Agrium (AGU-T). World population will be crossing 7 billion very soon and this is a great export area for North America. Good long-term hold.

2009-07-10

Comment

108.800

Richard Croft

Stock was Selling at about $129 in June and caller Bought an October $120/$140 Call for $9. Thinking of Selling a $120 Put for about $9 bringing his costs close to zero. Answer: This is a Call Spread. He actually bought a call at $120 and sold a call at $140. Maximum profit would occur at $140 for the difference of $20 so in effect doubling his $9. If stock declines, both options decline and his $9 position would be worth something like $1-$1.50 today. His Put is a different strategy and actually obliges you to buy the stock at $110. If it stays above $110, you break even. If it declines you end up owning it at $110. You have to be comfortable owning the stock at $110.

2009-07-09

BUY

113.300

Ara Nalbandian

Like fertilizer industry. This is the one he prefers because they have the strong asset base holding 75% of the global capacity and 25% production. On his watch list.

2009-07-03

BUY on WEAKNESS

108.490

Lyle Stein

Seasonal buying opportunity? Not a big believer in trying to catch seasonal trends. There is a debate as to whether China and India will pay $600 or less for potash. Company reduced production. Also reduced earnings forecast based on lower production. If the price could go below $100 he will buy.

2009-06-30

Comment

107.660

Michael Sprung

Fertilizer purchases have decreased and they have cut back on production. (For agriculture play that is not as volatile, see Top Picks.)

2009-06-26

BUY on WEAKNESS

106.220

Laura Wallace

The use of fertilizer is down substantially. Still haven't got a settlement on China and India for contract prices. They are cutting production, which impacts earnings. Thinks it can trade well below $100. Try to buy in the $90-$95 area.

2009-06-23

PAST TOP PICK

105.900

(A Top Pick June 3/08. Down 49.36%. Has moved to a different investment firm.) He could see this dropping into the $90's and if that happened he would be buying it. Longer term, supply/demand fundamentals are very good.

2009-06-19

TOP PICK

107.860