STOCKCHASE

Has had a lot of trouble with Long Lake. Coming but it's slow. A statistically cheap oily stock that, if it can fix the problem, will have a lot of opportunity. Not fixable in 1 quarter. Trading at a discount to NAV.

2010-09-02

HOLD

20.170

His model price is $25.50, a 29% upside.

2010-08-17

STRONG BUY

22.970

All of these types of stocks have gotten trashed lately, particularly with the spill/leak in the Gulf. A global player that does very sophisticated things. There will be a positive snap back in all of these stocks.

2010-05-28

HOLD

23.200

His model price is $24.87, an 11% upside. It probably goes to $23.40 and stays there for a while.

2010-05-27

PAST TOP PICK

26.140

(A Top Pick Apr 13/09. Up 9.38%.) Had a little trouble with the Long Lake but still likes.

2010-04-19

PAST TOP PICK

25.840

David Taylor, MBA, CFA

(A Top Pick Jan 10/08. Down 32.1%.) This has been a dog. Still owns a little.

2010-04-13

BUY

25.820

(Market Call Minute.) Cheap and expects it will give acquired by someone for its assets.

2010-04-12

TOP PICK

26.010

Model price of $29.10 gives a 16% upside. Consensus forecasts for 2011 is $2.79 giving a model price of $43, which is a 71% potential ROE.

2010-04-01

DON'T BUY

25.260

Christine Poole

Oil leveraged oil/gas producer. You need a positive opinion on crude. (She has.) Lagged its peers because of difficulty in meeting production targets in oil sands and the UK. Prefers others such as Cdn Nat Res (CNQ-T) or Crescent Point (CPG-T).

2010-03-30

DON'T BUY

24.190

Philip Doyle

Rodney Dangerfield of the Canadian oil patch (no respect). A lot of potential with a lot of properties ripe for exploration but production is probably a few years out needing a Fairmont of capitalization. Low-cost production in the North Sea and oil sands production coming on at Long Lake. Not always successful in execution.

2010-03-26

DON'T BUY

24.090

(Market Call Minute.) Prefers others in the oil/gas sector. Valuations is not compelling.

2010-03-17

PAST TOP PICK

23.740

(A Top Pick Apr 13/09. No change.) Have the Long Lake oil sands project and keep having mildly disappointing numbers. Has an asset value of $34. Could be a takeover target. Buying at this price.

2010-03-15

BUY

23.540

Paul Harris, CFA

Will be range bound until you see something happen with oil. He likes oil stocks and thinks oil will be a lot higher over time. You can’t find cheap oil any more, so that is a benefit to Canadian oil companies.

2010-02-18

WAIT

23.240

Jennifer Stevenson

A lot of its upside is tied to Long Lake but it's taking a while to work. She would wait. Just had a delay in another project. This one has operational risks.

2010-02-16

DON'T BUY

23.280

Greg A. Taylor, CFA, BBA

Not a favourite in the energy space. Just put out an upgrade on their Long Lake oil sands project and continue to have problems with it.

2010-02-09

BUY

23.900

Gavin Graham

Recently announced they were lowering their CapX for this year so a number of analysts have pulled back their estimates. Has a pretty neat set of assets. Very cheap.

2010-02-01

DON'T BUY

22.960

Development at Long Lake seems to continually be longer than hoped for but eventually it will come into production. Recently announced a $2.5 billion capital expenditure program, which is a good step. From a price valuation, he sees this in the middle of the field. He would like to see it 10%-15% lower.

2010-01-27

SELL

23.810

Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng.

Assets across Western Canada, Gulf of Mexico and Yemen. Newest project is Long Lake, which has had a great deal of difficulty. Very difficult reservoir to develop needing Steam Assisted Gravity so have been unable to meet production projects. Refining looks very interesting. Better opportunities elsewhere.

2010-01-19

HOLD

23.880

Jeff Black

Well managed and in the right sector for longer-term.

2010-01-14

BUY

25.180

This and Talisman (TLM-T) are statistically 2 of the cheapest oils. Thinks this one is a takeover candidate in the $33-$35 range. Slowly getting their act together on Long Lake.

2009-12-30

DON'T BUY

24.400

Steve Carlin

(Market Call Minute.) Not too fond of this one. Until they start delivering on performance in their Long Lake project he won't look at it.

2009-12-16

PAST TOP PICK

24.830

(A Top Pick Nov 20/08. Up 72.8 %.) Well diversified with a lot of projects globally.

2009-11-30

DON'T BUY

25.950

Bill Harris, CFA

Could be taken over. But because of the size of their projects, it is lumpy. It could go sideways for a long time. He doesn’t like it. It is at a higher multiple right now.

2009-11-10

TOP PICK

24.520

Gavin Graham

Exciting places in the world and oil sands. They are able to take advantages of their partner’s financial problems. Possibility of a take over. Biggest risk is a major failure in anticipated production.

2009-10-23

PAST TOP PICK

25.760

(Top Pick Nov 20/08, Up 81.78%) They say they are going to have their best year ever next year. These guys could be taken out at some point.

2009-10-20

PAST TOP PICK

23.140

(Top Pick Nov 20/08, Up 59%) Pretty well positioned. Long lake held them back. Well diversified.

2009-10-06

VAGUE

23.140

Long lake project was a bit of a disappointment. They have dropped the ball on a couple of things, like their hedging and production off-shore. It’s a good play on oil longer term.

2009-10-06

BUY

24.750

Classic value play. Inexpensive on cash flow metrics, etc because they typically disappoint on production and earnings guidance 3 times out of 4. They are cheap enough that you can buy but they have had some issues. Could be some weakness in the short term.

2009-09-28

Comment

24.440

Mason Granger

NXY Cheap stock as execution has been particularly disappointing. There have been reserved write-downs in the Gulf of Mexico and a host of other problems including an 80% cost overrun on the Long Lake asset. Would Buy on deep pullbacks and sell on the rumours of a takeout.

2009-09-24

BUY on WEAKNESS

24.440

Keith Richards

Was moving in a fairly tight range of $19-$22, broke out of that with a very strong move but are now starting to see a pullback. Old high of around $22 could be its support level and could then go to $25 or so. Wait for the market correction to buy at the support level.

2009-09-24

BUY

25.540

Jennifer Stevenson

Diverse portfolio. Now is not a bad time to accumulate. You have the benefit of a lower multiple.

2009-09-22

HOLD

24.560

Joanne A. Hruska, CFA

(Market Call Minute.) Not one of her top picks but also not a bottom pick.

2009-09-14

HOLD

20.950

Has always been a lot of talk about them being acquired so she hopes that one day it will be. An overhang is the start-up of the joint venture with Opti Canada (OPC-T) oil sands project. Technical issues are resolvable but taking a long time so people are soured on it.

2009-09-02

DON'T BUY

23.050

Andrew Cook

(Market Call Minute.) Thinks there are better places to put your money. Longer term they have a reasonable growth prospect.

2009-08-20

DON'T BUY

22.590

Jeff Parent

Doesn't see a lot of action going on in the stock. A lot of consolidation around $20. If you Buy have a Stop around $21.

2009-07-24

BUY

22.100

2nd quarter profit tumbled 95%. The worst the numbers are and the less they deliver the better it is for the eventual takeover, which is what everybody is waiting for.

2009-07-17

PARTIAL SELL

25.270

Laura Lau

The biggest question would be Long Lake because that is their future for the next year. Long Lake has had a lot of surface issues with water. Upgrader is supposed to be operating 70,000 barrels a day but they can only get 18,000 out of the ground and it will take another year to get up to 70,000. If you own, she would recommend you take some profits as the acquirer Total has backed off.

2009-06-30

WEAK BUY

23.590

This is a Buy but there are better names in this space. (See his Top Picks.) Rumoured to be the next take-out candidate. Production has been a bit spotty but is improving. Long Lake has been a very poor reservoir thus far.

2009-06-24

BUY

24.480

Good company. Considered buying but chose Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T) instead.

2009-06-18

HOLD

27.510

Michael Smedley

Speculatively, it's potentially a takeout. Very good one to hold. Fully valued unless there is an escalation in oil prices.

2009-06-10

SELL

28.130

Jennifer Stevenson

Buzzard is doing really well and the Gulf of Mexico is moving up but still trying to get back to where it was before hurricane Gustav. Now has 65% of Long Lake. If looking at it for an oil-focused play, it is starting to look more expensive than its peers so consider switching to something like Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T). Would look for $23 before buying.

2009-06-01

Comment

28.130

Steven Conville

Can be quite volatile so don't go over weight in these kinds of stocks. Currently commodities are priced for a 2nd half recovery. If the 2nd half doesn't turn out to be what you hoped, this will probably retrace.

2009-06-01

DON'T BUY

24.200

Balance sheet is not as strong as some of the others. Not one of his favourites.

2009-05-19

DON'T BUY

22.830

Jeff Parent

Currently heading down and he could see it going down to $20 quiet easily and maybe some sideways motion at that point. He would look to buy if it broke above $21 afterwards.

2009-05-13

DON'T BUY

23.900

Brooke Thackray

Has broken its long-term downtrend and is starting to move up to its resistance line. At the same time, MACD has been rolling over. This is not a favourable chart.

2009-05-05

WAIT

24.060

Andrew Cook

Recovering form lows of the year. Wait for it to pull back. Fact that it didn’t re-test November lows in March indicates it is a very strong stock.

2009-04-24

BUY

23.280

There is some organic growth potential. There’s no control block out there. Will more likely be acquired than make an acquisition.

2009-04-23

TOP PICK

23.790

Likes oil and thinks it eventually goes to $75 by year-end. Company has good growth in the Gulf of Mexico and North Sea and a cheap valuation. Smaller company and by far the most likely to be taken over in M & A activity.

2009-04-13

Comment

23.490

Don Lato

Opti Canada (OPC-T) and Nexen (NXY-T) are in partnership on an oil sands project in Alberta. Project has been bereft with problems in terms of getting production up to speed and getting costs in line. Has been a lot of speculative money coming in, particularly with Opti, in the last couple of weeks.

2009-04-08

BUY on WEAKNESS

23.130

Joseph Schachter

(Market Call Minute.)

2009-04-06

HOLD

23.400

Has quite a rapid ROE decline at this stage. Wouldn't be his first choice.

2009-04-03

PARTIAL SELL

23.280

Every month or two, the next rumour comes around and she has been able to trade around this. Now getting to the point where she is slowly taking profits. Trading range is $20-$25.

2009-04-02

BUY

21.290

Dennis Da Silva

(Market Call Minute.) A defensive stock for this environment.

2009-03-26

BUY

17.800

Don Vialoux

(Market Call Minute.) Oil prices are going higher so this will too.

2009-03-10

HOLD

16.280

Really cheap, but every 2 weeks there seems to be a takeover rumour. Hasn't really performed soul has been disappointing but hard to overlook how inexpensive it is.

2009-03-06

Comment

16.080

Ross Healy

See comments under Energy. This company is getting into that position as well.

2009-03-05

Comment

17.100

Michael Brown

Quite favourable on their sustainability activities. Have participated in reporting on their carbon emissions and taking steps to reduce it.

2009-03-04

DON'T BUY

16.460

He has a model price of $14.40, a negative 12.5% differential.

2009-02-24

Comment

15.530

Charles Oliver, HBSc CFA

Likes their oil sands holdings. Also have assets in Yemen and in the gulf of Mexico. Good big cap company. Could be a takeover target.

2009-02-18

HOLD

18.450

Dean Orrico

(Market Call Minute.) Recently increased position in Long Lake and good upside through its oil sands.

2009-02-06

TOP PICK

17.810

Profit growth although it is clear that profitability is going to collapse in this sector going forward. Still thinks oil prices are going to bounce back to the $70’s and maybe $80.

2009-02-04

Comment

17.020

Jim Huang

You have to make a call on oil prices. Thinks oil prices will recover later on this year to $80-$100. Recently changed CEO’s and their strategy needs to be redefined and clarified.

2009-01-22

BUY

19.090

Sold half his holdings on the run-up on a takeover rumour. Nice company to hold longer-term. Thinks there is still 5% or 10% in the stock price on a takeover possibility. Would buy under $20.

2008-12-23

Comment

19.500

Gordon Higgins, CA, MBA

Delaying their Long Lake project until 2010. Not economic at these levels. This delay will help them build the balance sheet. Extremely low multiple. Prefers Talisman (TLM-T).

2008-12-22

TOP PICK

20.880

Very high ROE levels. Well positioned to withstand the hit there has been on the oil price. Extremely cheap. Looking for a 20%-30% gain.

2008-12-09

HOLD

19.360

David Cockfield

It appears that Total was in the process of firming up an offer. Until the financial market settles down he wouldn't Buy on the expectation that it will get taken out. Not a favourite but at this price it is probably okay.

2008-12-05

Comment

21.650

Rumours of a takeover but also that it was called off. Very inexpensive on every metric. Have cash. Really cheap and has some decent assets.

2008-12-03

HOLD

23.880

Jean-Francois Tardif

(Market Call Minute.) Looks like a takeover is coming at $38. If it doesn't happen, the stock probably goes back to $20.

2008-12-02

Comment

23.880

Possibility of being acquired so the stock has gone up on rumours.

2008-12-02

BUY

22.280

Rick Stuchberry

For energy plays, he prefers royalty trusts so that he can get a big income stream and sit on yield. If you are positive on energy prices going forward, this is very reasonable right now. Lots of reserve life.

2008-11-26

Comment

22.280

Derek Webb, CFA

Stock has been wiped out. Trades at the lowest multiple of cash flow it has ever traded. Great assets. If you own, don't sell. If you want to speculate on oil going higher and with any kind of time horizon, it is probably a buy.

2008-11-26

TOP PICK

14.650

Have had some disappointments on production. Thinks corporate activity starts to pick up in the sector. In the mining sector and this one, it will be a lot cheaper for companies to grow through acquisition. Generating cash and have projects on the go. Valuation is screamingly cheap.

2008-11-20

DON'T BUY

18.760

A lot more attractively valued. A lot of paring back in the estimates. Cash flow for 2009 and 2010 is about $4.40. Balance sheet is not too bad. Production profile looks fairly good. There are others that are more attractively valued.

2008-11-18

Comment

18.300

Joseph Schachter

Fabulous assets in Canada, Gulf of Mexico, Buzzard field and the UK and part of the new tar sands project Opti. Stock is very cheap. The problem is the commodity. With $80 oil you might see $25.

2008-11-14

Comment

17.950

Laura Wallace

Like all the other oil companies it has been absolutely decimated. Very good company and trading at amazingly low multiples with about 2X cash flow. A lot of non-Canadian operations in the Middle East of some concern. Could be a takeover candidate here.

2008-11-11

Comment

19.570

Robert Floyd

Makes a lot of sense to buy now if you have a 5-year time frame. Oil will be a lot higher. They have had some production issues in the past. Numbers have been a little bit weaker but they do have a good asset base. Change in management is coming shortly.

2008-10-30

PAST TOP PICK

16.250

(A Top Pick June 27/08. Down 62%.) Knew there would be weakness but was picked for 2009 and thinks it is still a great opportunity. Natural gas might go lower in the next little while.

2008-10-28

DON'T BUY

14.800

Laura Wallace

Good company but issues with where production is. Prefer Suncor.

2008-10-15

HOLD

24.700

Gordon Higgins, CA, MBA

Production volumes low due to hurricane. When you have mega projects you DO have mega-problems and that has to be allowed for when looking at these companies.

2008-09-30

HOLD

24.890

David Cockfield

Fundamentals are good and it is only down because of fears in the market. Good for the long-term.

2008-09-26

BUY

26.500

Michael Decter

Has a lot of positives. Montney exposure, Long Lake is starting up this month and a North Sea discovery. Prefers Encana(ECA-T) and CNQ (CNQ-T). Not a bad entry point.

2008-09-23

Comment

26.190

Lyle Stein

Long-term, oil is not a bad area of the market to be in. An investment in this would offer a pretty good reward over the next 2 to 3 years. Speculation in oil on the upside has now come out. Price to cash flow is 3.5 times, which is very reasonable.

2008-09-09

BUY

30.680

Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng.

Has a 50% interest in the Longview SAGD project with an upgrader facility. Undervalued.

2008-09-02

BUY

33.280

Loves the stock. 92% chance of outperforming the market. 37% ROE and rising at a rapid rate. Well sourced. One of only 8 companies out of 69 that have such good sourcing and profit growth. Also likes the sector.

2008-08-29

BUY

33.280

Steve Carlin

A bit of a “show me” stock right now. They have to get the Long Lake project going. One of the cheapest oil companies in Canada. Fundamentally it is going to do really well this coming year. Excellent production growth.

2008-08-29

PARTIAL BUY

30.850

Robert Floyd

Last quarterly report was a little disappointing. Some of their production numbers where a little weaker than expected. As well, there was a weak energy price. Think it’s getting a little bit overdone on the down side but it could still come down little bit more before it finally starts to base out. Would be tempted to add a little bit.

2008-07-23

BUY on WEAKNESS

34.050

Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng.

Oil driven. 50% ownership of Opti Canada (OPC-T), which is starting production and is one of the real benefits of owning it. A large part of their production comes out of the North Sea. Try to buy in the $30 range.

2008-07-18

Comment

32.950

There is a strong feeling out there that something should be done about this company. When you take out the trading losses, their numbers where bang on. Stock is cheap enough. Expect there will be a push to sell the company or break it up.

2008-07-17

PARTIAL BUY

32.950

Bill MacLachlan

Missed their earnings estimates sold the stock dropped. Little riskier than some of the senior energy stocks because of its international focus. This means market is going to punish it more when it doesn't perform. Very well run company. He would Hold for the long haul and would be tempted to add a little to a position.

2008-07-17

TOP PICK

39.390

Going to be tough to invest in the last 1.5 years of this cycle. Oil and gold will generally be extremely volatile. 32% ROE. Phenomenal profit growth. Great fundamentals. PE is 11.9X’s.

2008-06-27

PAST TOP PICK

41.390

(A Top Pick Aug 8/07. Up 36%.) Had been really cheap. Brought on Buzzard in the North Sea, which has been a real cash cow. 50% of the oil sands play, Long Lake looks like it is finally coming of age.

2008-06-16

BUY

41.390

David Burrows

Great assets in the North Sea and in North America. Growing production profile.

2008-06-16

BUY

38.920

Steve Carlin

Great company. Likes Buzzard, their North Sea property where they will be generating the highest cash margins of any company. Started steaming some of their Long Lake wells and the upgrader will be operating this summer so will be ramping up production in the next 3/4 months. 40 year asset.

2008-06-03

BUY

38.930

Q: If you bought this, would you pair it with a Bear ETF? A: No because this stock would hold up better than average. It is a little bit cheaper than average. He can make a case for a $45 NAV even with lower oil prices. Probably the 2nd Canadian candidate to split up.

2008-05-26

BUY

40.670

Gavin Graham

Q: Would you Buy this and HBP Nymex Oil Bear (HOD-T) in case of a downside in crude? A: Neat pair trade, but would all the upside you get from Nexen be offset? In terms of price to cash flow this company is somewhat cheaper than others because it’s in places like Yemen.

2008-05-20

BUY

38.790

John O'Connell, CFA

A very interesting play. Have massive resources. Very well positioned for growth. Could be a takeover target.

2008-05-15

DON'T BUY

34.900

Came in with earnings that were better than expected. Very strong ROE. Development at Long Lake is ramping up. Have a fairly good production profile going forward. Trading at a pretty full multiple with earnings in the $3-$4 range and cash flows around $6.50 to $7.50.

2008-04-30

BUY on WEAKNESS

35.450

Robert Floyd

Thought the news on the company was actually quite good. Has shown some really good production growth out of Buzzard.

2008-04-29

BUY

35.980

This is not his favourite. He would prefer Talisman (TLM-T), which has better prospects going forward and better pricing. Benefiting from the high prices right now and not a bad choice.

2008-04-22

BUY

32.650